货币升值与贸易顺差:基于金融加速器效应的研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 00:03

本文选题：人民币升值 + 金融加速器　；参考：《世界经济》2013年04期

【摘要】：本文将Bernanke等(1999)模型推广到小国开放经济中,考察人民币升值能否降低贸易顺差。模型考虑了中国及其他东亚国家持有大量外币资产以及企业主要依靠国内银行融资的两个现实,并在参数赋值时对这些国家进口贸易品的结构进行了刻画。模型的数值模拟结果表明,在不考虑金融加速器效应的情况下,货币升值能够显著降低贸易顺差,但如果考虑了金融加速器效应和持有大量外币资产的情形,货币升值就会使得企业投资和投资品的进口大幅下降,由此带来进口量的减少超过出口量的减少,可能使得贸易顺差进一步扩大,经济陷入衰退。
[Abstract]:This paper generalize the Bernanke (1999) model to the open economy of small countries and investigate whether the appreciation of RMB can reduce the trade surplus. The model takes into account the two realities that China and other East Asian countries hold a large amount of foreign currency assets and the enterprises mainly rely on domestic bank financing, and the structure of these countries' imports of trade goods when the parameters are assigned. The numerical simulation results show that the currency appreciation can significantly reduce the trade surplus without considering the financial accelerator effect, but if the financial accelerator effect and the possession of a large amount of foreign currency assets are taken into consideration, the appreciation of money will greatly reduce the import of investment and investment goods and bring about imports. The reduction in volume exceeds the decrease in exports, which may further expand the trade surplus and plunge the economy into recession.

【作者单位】：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;青岛科技大学经济与管理学院;北京大学光华管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“部门异质性、核心通货膨胀与最优货币政策——基于多部门新凯恩斯模型的研究”(71173160) 国家社科基金“包含制度因素的经济增长模型研究”(12CJL013)的阶段性成果数量经济与数理金融教育部重点实验室(北京大学)和山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金项目“战略性新兴产业发展与经济增长的机理研究”(BS2012SF007)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6;F742;F224

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