人民币实际汇率变动对中国—东盟贸易效应的研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 21:36

本文选题：人民币实际汇率 + 中国-东盟　；参考：《广西大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：《东盟宪章》的签署及CAFTA的成立有利于中国与东盟成员国友好关系和经贸往来的发展,中国与东盟各成员国之间经济贸易日趋活跃就是证明。东盟已成为我国的第四大贸易伙伴。在当前全球经济一体化趋势日益明显的大背景下,中国-东盟区域经济一体化已经成为热点问题,尤其对中国-东盟贸易一体化的发展,更是学术界以及政府部门所探讨的焦点。而区域内汇率的变动影响着区域间各成员国之间的贸易依赖程度,进而影响区域贸易一体化的发展。08年金融危机以来,为了避免美元币值波动带来的不利影响,东盟国家在与我国的双边贸易中更多选择人民币进行结算。因而,研究人民币汇率变动对中国-东盟未来贸易发展将有利于推动区域贸易一体化的进程,进而促进中国-东盟区域经济一体化的发展,同时也将为人民币区域化乃至国际化进程安装新的“加速器”。为此,基于理论支撑,本文将在企业最优出口定价模型和行业出口定价模型构建的基础上搭建汇率变动对中国-东盟贸易效应的理论模型。在此基础上,通过实证分析进一步探测人民币实际汇率横向水平变动及纵向剧烈波动’分别对中国-东盟贸易的影响。其结果显示,除了印尼和缅甸,人民币实际汇率横向水平变动对中国-东盟贸易的影响符合“J曲线效应”；除印尼、老挝、菲律宾外,人民币实际汇率的纵向波动在短期内有利于改善中国与其余东盟七国的对外贸易收支,在长期内影响甚微。基于此,结合中国-东盟贸易的发展现状,提出人民币实际汇率变动条件下中国-东盟未来贸易发展的策略选择。
[Abstract]:The signing of the ASEAN Charter and the establishment of the CAFTA are conducive to the development of friendly relations and economic and trade exchanges between China and ASEAN member countries, as evidenced by the growing economic and trade activities between China and ASEAN member countries. ASEAN has become China's fourth largest trading partner. Under the background of the current trend of global economic integration, China-ASEAN regional economic integration has become a hot issue, especially for the development of China-ASEAN trade integration. It is also the focus of academic and government research. However, changes in intraregional exchange rates affect the degree of trade dependence among member States of the region, thereby affecting the development of regional trade integration. Since the 2008 financial crisis, in order to avoid the adverse effects of fluctuations in the value of the United States dollar, ASEAN countries in bilateral trade with China more choice of RMB settlement. Therefore, the study of RMB exchange rate change will be beneficial to the future development of China-ASEAN trade, which will help to promote the process of regional trade integration, and then promote the development of China-ASEAN regional economic integration. It will also install a new accelerator for the regionalization and even internationalization of the renminbi. Therefore, based on the theoretical support, this paper will build the theoretical model of the effect of exchange rate change on China-ASEAN trade on the basis of the optimal export pricing model and the industry export pricing model. On the basis of this, the influence of lateral and vertical fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate on China-ASEAN trade is further explored by empirical analysis. The results show that, except for Indonesia and Myanmar, the lateral effect of RMB real exchange rate changes on China-ASEAN trade conforms to the "J curve effect"; except Indonesia, Laos and the Philippines, The vertical fluctuation of the real exchange rate of RMB is beneficial to improve the foreign trade balance between China and the other seven ASEAN countries in the short term, and has little effect in the long run. Based on this, combined with the current situation of China-ASEAN trade development, this paper puts forward the strategic choice of the future trade development of China-ASEAN under the condition of RMB real exchange rate fluctuation.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7

【参考文献】