人民币汇率升值对中国外贸的影响及对策建议

发布时间：2018-04-27 03:33

本文选题：实际有效汇率 + 外贸规模　；参考：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,我国对外贸易机制不断深化,进出口贸易规模持续扩大。截止2011年,我国进出口首次突破3万亿美元的贸易大关,实现36420亿美元的贸易规模。我国对外贸易依存度也从1980年的12.5%,上升到2006年的67%,达到历史最高水平,远远超过世界平均水平。对外贸易已经成为拉动我国经济增长的强大动力。与此同时,汇率作为影响一国进出口贸易的主要因素,我国不断加强和深化汇率制度改革。从1981年始,我国汇率制度经历了四次改革、四个阶段。在2005年7月21日,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础的,参考—篮子货币进行调节的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制。此次汇改后,人民币汇率进入一段缓慢升值期。尤其是2008年全球金融危机爆发以后,欧、美等发达国家陷入经济萧条周期。为转移国内经济危机,美国加大对人民币汇率升值施压,将中美贸易失衡问题归咎于人民币汇率低谷。于2012年3月27日,1美元兑人民币汇率中间价为6.2858,比汇改时累计升值超过30%,对我国出口贸易的发展产生了严重阻碍作用。因此,在当前我国经济结构转型期,研究汇率对我国外贸的影响具有很强的现实意义。本文分别从我国外贸规模和外贸结构两方面,采用理论与实证、定性与定量相结合方法,并通过对日元升值的国际经验进行比较研究,分析了我国人民币汇率与我国外贸的关系。首先,对汇率与进出口贸易的相关经典理论进行了回顾,介绍了当前国内外相关研究的最新进展。其次,本文定性分析了人民币汇率对我国外贸规模的影响,之后通过协整检验和建立VAR模型定量分析,研究得出人民币汇率对我国外贸规模具有负向的长短期影响。第四章,同样利用定性与定量分析方法分析了人民币汇率对外贸结构的影响,结果表明汇率对外贸结构具有长期优化效应,但短期影响作用不明显。第五章,借鉴日元升值的国际经验,比较目前人民升值与当时日元升值的背景及过程,用以指导我国人民币汇率的改革与政策实施。最后,根据研究得出的结论,结合中国目前的实际情况,为我国汇率政策和外贸政策提供可行的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade mechanism has been deepening, and the scale of import and export trade continues to expand. By 2011, China's import and export trade level has broken through the $3 trillion mark for the first time, and the trade scale of US $3.642 trillion has been achieved. China's dependence on foreign trade has also risen from 12.5 in 1980 to 6710 in 2006, reaching the highest level in history and far exceeding the world average. Foreign trade has become a powerful driving force for China's economic growth. At the same time, the exchange rate is the main factor that affects a country's import and export trade, our country unceasingly strengthens and deepens the exchange rate system reform. Since 1981, China's exchange rate system has undergone four reforms and four stages. On July 21, 2005, China began to implement a single, managed floating exchange rate system based on the market supply and demand, reference and basket currencies. After the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate entered a period of slow appreciation. Especially after the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, developed countries, such as Europe and the United States, fell into a recession cycle. In an effort to deflect the domestic economic crisis, the United States has stepped up pressure on the yuan to appreciate, blaming the low value of the yuan for the trade imbalance between China and the United States. On March 27, 2012, the central exchange rate of the dollar against the RMB was 6.2858, which was more than 30% higher than the accumulated appreciation during the exchange rate reform, which seriously hindered the development of China's export trade. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence of exchange rate on China's foreign trade in the current period of economic structure transformation. In this paper, the scale of China's foreign trade and the structure of foreign trade, the use of theoretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative methods, and through the appreciation of the yen through the international experience of comparative research. This paper analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade. Firstly, the classical theories of exchange rate and import and export trade are reviewed, and the latest research progress at home and abroad is introduced. Secondly, this paper qualitatively analyzes the influence of RMB exchange rate on the scale of China's foreign trade, and then through cointegration test and quantitative analysis of VAR model, it concludes that RMB exchange rate has a negative long-term and short-term impact on China's foreign trade scale. Chapter four also analyzes the influence of RMB exchange rate on foreign trade structure by qualitative and quantitative analysis. The results show that the exchange rate has a long-term optimization effect on foreign trade structure, but the short-term effect is not obvious. The fifth chapter draws lessons from the international experience of yen appreciation, compares the background and process between the current people's appreciation and the yen appreciation at that time, in order to guide the reform and policy implementation of RMB exchange rate in China. Finally, according to the conclusion of the study, combined with the actual situation of China at present, it provides feasible suggestions for China's exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752;F224

【参考文献】