中美经济关系、汇率制度与中国汇率政策——基于FAVAR模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-01 15:02

本文选题：汇率政策 + 美国经济　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2010年01期

【摘要】：本文对美国经济因素与中国主要宏观经济变量之间的相关性进行了定量研究,实证分析了1993～2007年中美经济关系、人民币汇率制度改革对中国汇率政策传导机制和效果的影响。通过因素增强型向量自回归模型的实证分析,我们发现中美两国经济关系呈现出高度的协同性。中美经济交流和互动对中国汇率政策传导机制和效果产生了明显影响,主要表现为美国因素弱化了汇率政策的短期效应。人民币名义汇率能够浮动时,能在一定程度上缓和国内外供需矛盾,减小实际升值对外贸顺差的负面效应,但加剧了产出衰退。
[Abstract]:This paper makes a quantitative study on the correlation between American economic factors and China's main macroeconomic variables, and empirically analyzes the economic relations between China and the United States from 1993 to 2007, and the impact of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime on the transmission mechanism and effect of China's exchange rate policy. Through the empirical analysis of the factor enhanced vector autoregressive model, we find that the economic relationship between China and the United States shows a high degree of synergy. The economic exchanges and interactions between China and the United States have a significant impact on the transmission mechanism and effect of China's exchange rate policy, mainly because the American factor weakens the short-term effect of the exchange rate policy. When the nominal exchange rate of RMB can float, the contradiction between supply and demand at home and abroad can be alleviated to some extent, and the negative effect of real appreciation on foreign trade surplus can be reduced, but the output recession is aggravated.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;武汉大学经济发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目(批准号:70803037) 国家社会科学基金重点项目(批准号:07AJL016) 教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(批准号:08JA790097)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】