中国高额外汇储备的风险及防范机制研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 10:39

本文选题：外汇储备 + 适度规模　；参考：《山东财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国外汇储备规模连续多年世界第一，高额外汇储备是我国国力的象征，在平衡国际收支和促进经济发展方面发挥积极作用。但是，我国外汇储备规模过大，给宏观经济运行带来一些列负面影响；我国外汇储备在币种结构和资产运用上存在不少问题，面临诸多风险。文章分析了我国高额外汇储备的形成历程和原因，探讨了外汇储备规模过大带来的负面影响和外汇储备结构管理的现状，在借鉴日本和新加坡外汇管理经验的基础上，提出了完善我国高额外汇储备风险管理的对策。论文共分六章，，第一章介绍了文章的选题背景和意义，总结了国内外在外汇储备适度规模和结构管理方面的研究成果，并指明了文章的研究方法、创新点和不足。第二章分析了我国高额外汇储备的形成历程和成因。第三章依据我国用汇的实际情况对阿格沃尔模型进行修正，并运用修正的阿格沃尔模型对我国1994-2010年的外汇储备适度规模进行测算，通过与外汇实有规模的对比，得出结论：近年来，我国外汇储备规模过大，基于此结论分析了高额外汇储备对宏观经济运行的负面影响。第四章分析了我国外汇储备币种结构和资产结构的现状，并基于现状的分析指出了外汇资产面临的风险。第五章介绍了日本和新加坡的外汇储备管理经验及其对中国的启示。第六章探讨了完善我国高额外汇储备风险管理的对策，即控制外汇储备的总体规模、优化外汇储备的币种结构、拓宽外汇储备的资产运营方式和推进人民币国际化。
[Abstract]:China's foreign exchange reserve scale has been the first in the world for many years. The high foreign exchange reserve is the symbol of China's national strength and plays an active role in balancing the international balance of payments and promoting economic development. However, the scale of foreign exchange reserves in China is too large, which brings some negative effects to the macro-economic operation, and there are many problems and risks in the currency structure and asset utilization of foreign exchange reserves in China. This paper analyzes the forming process and reasons of high foreign exchange reserves in China, probes into the negative effects brought by the excessive scale of foreign exchange reserves and the present situation of foreign exchange reserve structure management, and draws lessons from the experience of foreign exchange management in Japan and Singapore. The paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the risk management of high foreign exchange reserves in China. The thesis is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the paper, summarizes the domestic and foreign research results in the appropriate scale and structure of foreign exchange reserves management, and points out the research methods, innovation points and deficiencies. The second chapter analyzes the formation process and causes of China's high foreign exchange reserves. In the third chapter, the Agarwal model is revised according to the actual situation of China's foreign exchange, and the appropriate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves from 1994 to 2010 is measured by using the modified Agarwal model, which is compared with the actual scale of foreign exchange. Conclusion: in recent years, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is too large. Based on this conclusion, the negative effects of high foreign exchange reserves on macroeconomic operation are analyzed. Chapter four analyzes the current situation of currency structure and asset structure of foreign exchange reserve in China and points out the risks faced by foreign exchange assets based on the analysis of current situation. Chapter five introduces the experience of foreign exchange reserve management in Japan and Singapore and its enlightenment to China. The sixth chapter discusses the countermeasures to improve the risk management of China's high foreign exchange reserves, that is, to control the overall scale of foreign exchange reserves, optimize the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves, broaden the asset operation mode of foreign exchange reserves and promote the internationalization of RMB.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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