我国金融自由化进程中的金融风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 11:01

本文选题：金融自由化 + 金融风险　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济全球化和金融自由化的不断扩大,使得世界经济联系的越来越紧密,金融风险的危害性、易发性和联动性慢慢凸显出来。2008年的金融危机给世界经济造成了严重负面影响,对我国的经济的发展也产生了一定的阻碍,作为全球金融体系中的一员,随着金融自由程度的加深,各国的经济联系的会更加紧密,同时更需要防范来自国际和国内的更大、更复杂的金融风险。全面系统地研究与了解金融自由化进程中所产生的金融风险成因、性质、类型及特点,采取对策来控制和防范金融风险已成为历史的必然。因此,如何防范在金融自由化进程中出现的金融风险,建立合理的金融风险预警系统就显得尤为重要。本文以金融自由化理论和金融风险理论为切入点,首先叙述了国内外学者在金融自由化和金融风险预警领域内的研究成果,在充分的了解该领域的情况下,分析了我国在金融自由化进程中产生金融风险的根源,结合金融自由化的特点和金融风险的特性,以金融自由化四个方面的内容为基础,把金融系统分为宏观、微观和对外三个经济系统,研究了在金融自由化进程中,三个经济系统的风险变化。在实证方面,用因子分析法选取了能代表我国金融自由化发展的指标,构建了金融风险预警指标体系,通过KLR信号法对选取的预警指标体系的现实性与合理性进行了实证检验,结果发现关于我国金融自由化进程中的金融风险预警指标体系比较好的展现了近几年来金融风险的变化趋势,我国的金融体系可以较好的地域国际金融风险,但是对于国内金融存在的金融风险不能小视,因此,在金融自由化的进程中,对外要是适度的金融自由化,对国内的金融机构在金融开放的同时,还要加大监管力度。建立一个相对完善的金融风险预警指标体系,可以有效的加强我国对金融风险的管理,抵御国际金融资本的的冲击,这对于早期防范和化解我国金融自由化进程中出现的金融风险,促进我国金融健康和稳定的发展,有现实的指导意义。
[Abstract]:With the continuous expansion of economic globalization and financial liberalization, the world economy is becoming more and more closely linked, and the harmfulness, vulnerability and linkage of financial risks are becoming increasingly prominent. The financial crisis of 2008 has had a serious negative impact on the world economy. As a member of the global financial system, with the deepening of the degree of financial freedom, the economic ties of various countries will become closer, and at the same time, there is a greater need to guard against greater international and domestic sources. More complex financial risks. It has become a historical necessity to study and understand the causes, nature, types and characteristics of financial risks in the process of financial liberalization, and to take countermeasures to control and prevent financial risks. Therefore, how to prevent the financial risks in the process of financial liberalization and establish a reasonable financial risk warning system is particularly important. Based on the theory of financial liberalization and the theory of financial risk, this paper first describes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of financial liberalization and financial risk early warning. This paper analyzes the causes of financial risks in the process of financial liberalization in China, combines the characteristics of financial liberalization and the characteristics of financial risks, based on the four aspects of financial liberalization, divides the financial system into macro. This paper studies the risk changes of the three economic systems in the process of financial liberalization. In the empirical aspect, factor analysis method is used to select the indicators that can represent the development of financial liberalization in China, and a financial risk early warning index system is constructed. The feasibility and rationality of the selected early warning index system are tested by KLR signal method. The results show that the early warning index system of financial risk in the process of financial liberalization in China shows the changing trend of financial risk in recent years, and that the financial system of our country can better regional international financial risk. However, the financial risks of domestic finance should not be underestimated. Therefore, in the process of financial liberalization, if the foreign financial liberalization is moderate, the financial institutions in China should be more regulated while the financial institutions are open to the outside world. The establishment of a relatively perfect financial risk warning index system can effectively strengthen the management of financial risks in China and resist the impact of international financial capital. It is of practical significance to prevent and resolve the financial risks in the process of financial liberalization and to promote the healthy and stable development of Chinese finance.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832

【参考文献】