汇改以来人民币币值国内外差异产生的原因研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 11:21

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 对外升值　；参考：《内蒙古大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自从2005年7月汇率改革以来,我国出现了两个突出的经济现象：一是人民币汇率稳中有升,尤其是对美元一直持续保持小幅的升值,截止到2013年3月,已经累计升值30%；二是国内的物价水平从结构性上涨演变为全面持续上涨,也就是人民币在国内的购买力越来越低。这个看似有悖经济规律的现象引起了国内外学者的普遍关注。面对我国这样一种特殊的经济现象,本文在综合了以往国内外学者研究成果的基础上,首先对影响通货膨胀和人民币升值的各个因素进行理论分析,然后运用ADL模型对影响人民币汇率的因素进行实证分析和检验,运用(?)AR模型对影响通货膨胀的各个因素进行实证分析和检验,发现两者的理论分析和实证分析结论虽然不完全吻合,但是基本相同：在影响通货膨胀的因素当中,通货膨胀预期和外汇储备与其相关性最大；在影响人民币汇率的因素当中,外汇储备与货币发行量与人民币汇率的相关性最强。因此人民币对外升值对内贬值的原因一是内外经济失衡,二是国际政治压力与人民币国际化的矛盾。就国内外现实经济环境而言,人民币对外升值是主导性的,对内贬值是派生性的,人民币币值国内外存在差异这一背离经济规律的现象将随着结售汇制度退出历史舞台而逐渐消失。
[Abstract]:Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, there have been two prominent economic phenomena in China: first, the RMB exchange rate has risen steadily, especially against the US dollar, which has maintained a small appreciation until March 2013. There has been a cumulative appreciation of 30%; second, the domestic price level has evolved from a structural rise to an overall sustained rise, meaning that the purchasing power of the RMB is getting lower and lower at home. This phenomenon, which seems to be contrary to the economic law, has aroused the widespread concern of scholars at home and abroad. In the face of such a special economic phenomenon in China, this paper, on the basis of synthesizing the previous research results of scholars at home and abroad, firstly makes a theoretical analysis of the factors affecting inflation and RMB appreciation. Then the ADL model is used to analyze and test the factors influencing RMB exchange rate, and the AR model is used to analyze and test the factors that affect inflation. It is found that although the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the two are not completely consistent, they are basically the same: among the factors that affect inflation, inflation expectations and foreign exchange reserves are the most relevant; among the factors that affect the exchange rate of RMB, The correlation between foreign exchange reserves and currency issuance and RMB exchange rate is the strongest. Therefore, the internal and external economic imbalance and the contradiction between the international political pressure and the internationalization of RMB are the main causes of RMB's external appreciation and devaluation. In terms of the real economic environment at home and abroad, the external appreciation of the RMB is dominant, and the internal devaluation is derivative. The phenomenon that there are differences in the value of RMB at home and abroad, which deviates from the economic law, will disappear with the withdrawal from the historical stage of the system of foreign exchange settlement and sale.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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