房地产业对我国经济增长的贡献及对通胀影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 11:23

本文选题：房地产 + 经济增长贡献　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机的发生，2009年十个行业振兴计划的提出，以及2010年以来如“新国八条”、“国十一条”、限购令等一系列针对房地产市场的宏观调控政策的出台，引发了有关房地产业与国民经济关系的激烈探讨。本文正是基于此背景，研究房地产市场波动对国民经济的影响，判断中国目前房地产市场在国民经济中的地位，以及中国经济对房地产业的依赖程度，以期对国家房地产调控政策做出一些建议，具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。房地产业对我国经济的影响体现在两个方面，一方面是直接推动或带动，或者通过产业之间的关联间接推动或带动GDP增长，表现为房地产业对我国经济的直接贡献和间接贡献；另一方面，通过价格变动对国民经济造成冲击，表现为对物价的影响。本文在此基调下，在相关理论的基础上分别从房地产业的利(对国民经济的贡献率)和弊(对通货膨胀的影响)两个方面来阐述对国民经济的影响。本文在测度过程中，首先，分别应用增长值法和投入产出模型对房地产业对国民经济直接贡献率和间接贡献率进行测度，分析中国经济对房地产业的依赖程度,得出结论。房地产业是我国国民经济的主导产业和最终需求型产业。我国房地产业还处于粗放型发展阶段。我国国民经济对房地产业依赖程度大。其次，运用协整检验、VAR分析等方法对房地产业与通货膨胀关系进行测度，并进行结果分析,发现短期内，房地产价格波动对通货膨胀影响较弱，甚至为零；长期内，房地产价格波动会先对宏观经济产生逐渐增强的正影响，也即随着房地产价格的上涨，物价水平也会逐渐上涨，所以房地产价格的变化对未来通货膨胀的预测很有意义。最后，本文结合房地产业对我国经济增长的贡献以及对通货膨胀利弊两方面影响的结果分析，，给出论文的研究结论，并提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the emergence of the 2008 financial crisis, the proposal of ten industry revitalization plans in 2009, and the introduction of a series of macro-control policies aimed at the real estate market since 2010, such as "eight articles of the new country", "11 articles of the country", and the purchase restriction order, etc. The relationship between real estate industry and national economy is discussed intensely. Based on this background, this paper studies the impact of the fluctuation of real estate market on the national economy, judges the status of China's real estate market in the national economy, and the degree of dependence of the Chinese economy on the real estate industry. In order to make some suggestions to the national real estate regulation and control policy, it has important theoretical and practical significance. The influence of real estate industry on our economy is reflected in two aspects. On the one hand, it directly promotes or drives the growth of GDP, or indirectly promotes or stimulates the growth of GDP through the connection between industries, which is manifested as the direct and indirect contribution of the real estate industry to our economy. On the other hand, through the impact of price changes on the national economy, the impact on prices. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper expounds the influence of real estate industry on the national economy from two aspects: the benefit (contribution rate to national economy) and the disadvantage (effect on inflation) of real estate industry. In this paper, firstly, the direct contribution rate and indirect contribution rate of real estate industry to national economy are measured by growth value method and input-output model respectively, and the degree of dependence of Chinese economy on real estate industry is analyzed, and a conclusion is drawn. The real estate industry is the leading industry and the final demand industry of our national economy. China's real estate industry is still in the extensive development stage. The national economy of our country depends heavily on the real estate industry. Secondly, using co-integration test and VAR analysis to measure the relationship between real estate industry and inflation, the results show that in the short term, the impact of real estate price fluctuations on inflation is weak or even zero; in the long run, the impact of real estate price fluctuations on inflation is weak, even zero. The fluctuation of real estate price will have a positive effect on macro economy first, that is, with the rise of real estate price, the price level will also rise gradually, so the change of real estate price is of great significance to the forecast of future inflation. Finally, based on the analysis of the results of the contribution of real estate industry to China's economic growth and the impact of inflation on the advantages and disadvantages of inflation, this paper gives the conclusions of the paper and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F124.1;F822.5

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