人民币升值对山东省制造业就业影响的研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 15:13

本文选题：人民币升值 + 制造业就业　；参考：《山东财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2005年，央行宣布对人民币汇率形成机制进行改革，由单一盯住美元的固定汇率制变革为以外汇市场供求为基础、有管理的、参考一篮子货币的浮动汇率制。自汇改以来人民币不断升值，引发了政府、社会、学者对人民币升值影响就业的极大关注，升值影响就业成为一个社会热点问题。近年来，，山东省制造业发展迅速，在吸纳劳动力、扩大山东省就业总量、降低失业率方面起着举足轻重的作用。进入新的世纪以来，山东省仍面临较大的就业压力，山东省在积极打造半岛蓝色经济圈、加大经济结构调整力度、大力发展制造业的的同时也在千方百计的扩大就业，而人民币升值势必对经济带来一系列冲击，这些冲击将不可避免的影响山东省制造业的发展速度、制造业产业结构调整，从而带来山东省制造业就业总量、就业结构的变化。在此背景下，研究人民币升值对山东省制造业就业的影响，不但能够将人民币升值影响制造业的机理清晰化，还能为政府进一步发展、调整制造业结构以充分发挥制造业在扩大山东省就业方面所起的重要作用而指明方向及提供政策建议。本文首先就国内外学者对汇率变化和就业之间关系所进行的研究以及得出的观点进行阐述，并对上述观点进行概括总结；界定了名义汇率、实际汇率、劳动就业等概念，同时，介绍了汇率影响就业的相关理论，包括总需求理论、资本代替劳动效应、马歇尔勒纳条件等，然后以这些理论为分析依据，认真研究人民币升值影响制造业就业的机理，规范性阐述人民币升值如何影响制造业就业。其次，以山东省制造业就业数据进行实证分析。对人民币升值影响就业进行平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验，并运用OLS法、误差修正（ECM）等方法进行实证分析，研究人民币升值对山东省制造业就业影响的显著程度。最后，通过理论分析加实证检验，得出结论：一、人民币的小幅升值利于山东省制造业就业总量的扩大；即人民币小幅升值对制造业就业带来的岗位创造效应大于破坏效应，总效应为正。二、人民币升值对不同的制造业部门有不同的影响：抑制劳动密集型产业的发展，减少其就业量；利于高科技制造业的发展从而利于就业的扩大。
[Abstract]:In 2005, the central bank announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, from a single fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar to a floating exchange rate system based on supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and managed with reference to a basket of currencies. Since the exchange rate reform, RMB appreciation has aroused great concern from the government, society and scholars that RMB appreciation affects employment, which has become a hot social issue. In recent years, the manufacturing industry of Shandong Province has developed rapidly, which plays an important role in absorbing labor force, expanding the total employment of Shandong Province and reducing the unemployment rate. Since entering the new century, Shandong Province is still facing greater employment pressure. While actively building the blue economic circle on the peninsula, increasing the intensity of economic restructuring, and vigorously developing manufacturing industries, Shandong Province is also doing everything possible to expand employment. The appreciation of RMB is bound to bring a series of shocks to the economy, which will inevitably affect the speed of the development of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province, the adjustment of the industrial structure of manufacturing industry, thus bringing about the total employment volume and the change of employment structure of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province. In this context, studying the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing employment in Shandong Province can not only clarify the mechanism of RMB appreciation affecting manufacturing industry, but also further develop the government. Adjusting the structure of manufacturing industry to give full play to the important role of manufacturing industry in expanding employment in Shandong Province, pointing out the direction and providing policy suggestions. In this paper, first of all, the author expatiates on the relationship between exchange rate change and employment, and summarizes the above views, defines the concepts of nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, labor employment and so on. This paper introduces the relevant theories of exchange rate influencing employment, including the theory of aggregate demand, the effect of capital replacing labor, Marshall Lerner condition and so on. Based on these theories, the paper studies the mechanism of RMB appreciation influencing the employment of manufacturing industry. Normative expound how appreciation of RMB affects manufacturing employment. Secondly, the employment data of Shandong manufacturing industry are analyzed empirically. On the basis of stability test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, OLS method and error correction method are used to analyze the influence of RMB appreciation on employment. To study the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing employment in Shandong Province. Finally, through theoretical analysis and empirical test, we draw a conclusion: first, the small appreciation of RMB is conducive to the expansion of the total employment of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province; that is, the effect of small appreciation of RMB on the employment of manufacturing industry is greater than the destructive effect. The total effect is positive. Second, the appreciation of RMB has different effects on different manufacturing sectors: restraining the development of labor-intensive industries and reducing their employment, and benefiting the development of high-tech manufacturing industry and thus the expansion of employment.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F427;F249.27;F224

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