人民币国际化进程中资本流动对货币政策效应的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 03:05

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 国际资本流动　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着我国国民经济持续快速发展和综合国力的增强，对外开放程度不断加深，人民币国际化进程逐步推进，人民币已经在部分地区行使国际货币职能并逐步开始迈上国际货币的舞台。然而随着人民币国际化进程的推进，我国跨境资本流动的规模和频率越来越大，，导致我国央行所实施的每一项货币政策，都有可能对资本市场产生影响，而这一影响反过来又会抵消我国货币政策的有效性。因此，对人民币国际化进程中国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响进行规范的理论分析及实证分析对于我国经济的正常发展及宏观经济的内外均衡的维系具有着重要意义。本文先从人民币国际化的发展历程入手，分析了人民币国际化的三个时期及期间汇率制度等政策的变化，进而从人民币作为国际结算货币、计价货币、储备货币等货币职能角度分析了人民币国际化的程度，并在此基础上分析了人民国际化过程中我国资本流动的结构性变化：直接投资FDI占比下降、短期资本比重增加、国际资本流动渠道多样化。从理论上论证了人民币国际化过程会引起我国跨境资本流动的变化，即随着人民币国际化进程的推进，我国资本项目和金融市场经历着逐步开放和完善的过程，在此期间我国的资本跨境流动的规模和频率会越来越大、形式会越来越多样。在本文的实证部分，本文先从定性的角度分析了跨境资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响，然后选取了2003年1月到2011年12月之间的每个月的短期国际资本流动额、汇率、利率、货币供应量四个变量进行实证分析从而说明资本跨境流动与货币政策有效性之间的关联性，进而证明国际资本流动会对我国货币政策的有效性造成影响。最后，本文对如何有效缓解人民币国际化进程中资本跨境流动对我国货币政策的不利影响提出了科学合理的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of our national economy and the enhancement of our overall national strength, the degree of opening to the outside world has deepened, and the process of internationalization of the RMB has been gradually advanced. The RMB has been playing the role of international currency in some regions and has gradually begun to rise to the stage of international currency. However, with the advancement of RMB internationalization, the scale and frequency of cross-border capital flows are increasing in China. As a result, every monetary policy implemented by the people's Bank of China is likely to have an impact on the capital market. This effect, in turn, will counteract the effectiveness of our monetary policy. Therefore, The theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of international capital flow on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the process of RMB internationalization is of great significance to the normal development of China's economy and the maintenance of internal and external equilibrium of the macro economy. This paper begins with the development of RMB internationalization, analyzes the changes of RMB exchange rate policy in three periods and periods of RMB internationalization, and then starts with RMB as an international settlement currency and pricing currency. On the basis of analyzing the degree of RMB internationalization from the perspective of reserve currency and other monetary functions, this paper analyzes the structural changes of China's capital flow in the process of people's internationalization: the proportion of direct investment in FDI decreases, and the proportion of short-term capital increases. Diversification of channels for international capital flows. The paper theoretically demonstrates that the process of RMB internationalization will cause the change of cross-border capital flow in China, that is, with the advancement of RMB internationalization, China's capital account and financial market are gradually opening and improving. During this period, the scale and frequency of cross-border capital flow will be more and more diverse. In the empirical part of this paper, this paper first analyzes the impact of cross-border capital flows on the effectiveness of monetary policy from a qualitative point of view, and then selects the short-term international capital flows volume, exchange rate, interest rate from January 2003 to December 2011. An empirical analysis of the four variables of money supply shows the correlation between cross-border capital flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy, thus proving that international capital flows will have an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. Finally, this paper puts forward scientific and reasonable policy recommendations on how to effectively mitigate the adverse effects of cross-border capital flows on China's monetary policy in the process of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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