通货膨胀对家庭财富持有形式选择的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 13:23

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 财富形式　；参考：《华中科技大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：在宏观经济研究中,人们往往只关注宏观经济变量之间的关系,忽视了微观主体对于宏观经济的影响,因而缺乏宏观研究的微观基础。家庭作为主要的微观经济主体,其经济行为(财富持有)对各个国家的经济、政治、文化都起到极为重要的影响。因此,家庭这个单元可以作为微观基础的研究对象。在宏观经济变量中,通货膨胀一直是宏观经济研究领域的关键变量之一。研究通货膨胀与家庭财富持有形式两者之间的关系,是宏观研究寻找微观基础的重要桥梁。自1978年改革开放以来,我国经济持续快速的增长,其直接表现为家庭收入不断增加,生活水平不断提高,家庭财富快速积累。随着经济发展而来的金融深化,使家庭财富的表现形式呈现出多元化的发展趋势。但是,国际经济形势的千变万化与国内宏观经济政策的不断调整,又使得家庭财富增值保值出现很大的不确定性。与以往研究家庭配置行为对通货膨胀的影响不同,本文将逆其道而行之,主要考察通货膨胀对家庭财富持有形式选择的影响,依据通货膨胀与我国家庭财富持有形式变化规律的事实,揭示家庭财富形式的变化不仅受个体特征(如年龄、学历等因素)的影响,同时还是为了对冲通货膨胀风险,提升家庭财产的增值保值能力。为了研究的方便,本文首先将家庭财富按流动性程度分为三大类：强流动性资产(现金、银行储蓄等)、半强流动性资产(股票、债券等)、弱流动性资产(不动产、贵金属等)。在此基础上,分别考察通货膨胀对不同类型资产价格变动的原理与内在机制。根据理性人假说,由于市场交易成本的存在,家庭财富持有形式的选择会根据个人信息掌握程度或知识水平差异而有所不同。文章分别分析了通货膨胀与三类资产的关系,通过数量或实证分析通货膨胀对各类资产价格波动的影响。通过研究中国的数据,我们发现持续的通货膨胀对各类资产价格的波动有显著影响,当通货膨胀率上升时,强流动性资产财富效应下降,而通货膨胀与股票价格和房地产价格的波动之间的关系不显著,它们收益率的变动更多的是受到经济政策的影响。当各类资产的价格发生不同方向的变化时,人们为了使家庭财富保值增值,也必然改变家庭财富资产的配置。本文还通过分析中国通货膨胀与家庭财富持有形式的数据发现,在过去30多年期间,我国家庭财富结构发生了很大变化,现金与存款占家庭财富的比重现下降趋势,股票资产与房地产在近几年占家庭财富的比重稳步上升。并且证明了家庭财富持有形式的选择不仅受限于个体特征的影响,而且还受限于通货膨胀的波动,特别是对冲通货膨胀风险。本文最后总结了通货膨胀与家庭财富持有形式之间的相关关系,针对家庭财富更有效地对冲通货膨胀风险,提出了一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:In macro economic research, people tend to pay attention to the relationship between macroeconomic variables, ignore the impact of the micro body on the macro-economy, and therefore lack the microcosmic basis of macro research. As the main microeconomic subject, the family's economic behavior (wealth holding) is very important to the economy, politics and culture of all countries. Therefore, the family unit can be used as the research object of microcosmic basis. In macroeconomic variables, inflation has always been one of the key variables in the field of macroeconomic research. The study of the relationship between inflation and the form of family wealth holding is an important bridge for macro research to find the microcosmic basis.
Since the reform and opening to the outside world in 1978, our country's economy has been growing rapidly and rapidly, which is directly manifested in the increasing family income, the improvement of the living standard and the rapid accumulation of family wealth. With the financial deepening of the economic development, the form of family wealth presents a diversified trend of development. However, the international economic situation is changing thousands of millions. The continuous adjustment of domestic and macro economic policies has made great uncertainty in the value added and preservation of family wealth.
Different from the previous study of the impact of family allocation behavior on inflation, this article will go counter to the effect of inflation on the choice of the form of family wealth holding. According to the fact that inflation and the law of the change of the form of family wealth holding in our country, it is revealed that the changes in the form of wealth and wealth of the family are not only characterized by individual characteristics, such as age, For the convenience of research, this article first divides the family wealth into three categories: strong liquidity assets (cash, bank savings, etc.), semi strong liquidity assets (stocks, bonds, etc.), weak liquidity assets (no) On the basis of this, we examine the principle and internal mechanism of inflation for different types of asset prices. According to the rationale hypothesis, the choice of family wealth holding forms will vary according to the degree of personal information mastery or the level of knowledge because of the existence of market transaction costs.
This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and three types of assets respectively. Through the quantitative or empirical analysis of the impact of inflation on various asset price fluctuations. Through the study of China's data, we find that sustained inflation has a significant impact on the volatility of all types of asset prices. When the inflation rate rises, the wealth effect of strong liquidity assets The relationship between inflation and the volatility of stock prices and real estate prices is not significant, and the change in their yield is more influenced by economic policy. When the prices of various assets change in different directions, people will also change the allocation of family wealth assets to increase the value of family wealth.
By analyzing the data of the form of inflation and family wealth in China, the family wealth structure has changed greatly over the past 30 years and the proportion of cash and deposit accounts for the family wealth, and the proportion of stock assets and real estate in the family wealth has risen steadily in recent years. The choice of the form of wealth holding is not only restricted by the influence of individual characteristics, but also restricted by the fluctuation of inflation, especially the risk of hedging inflation.
At the end of this paper, the relationship between inflation and the form of family wealth is summarized, and some policy suggestions are put forward in view of the more effective hedging of inflation risk by family wealth.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.51;F293.3;F224

【参考文献】