牛市和熊市中的兼并收购绩效比较研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 19:37

本文选题：牛市 + 熊市　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：在美国,上市公司的兼并收购活动已经有悠久的历史,外国学者也提供了许多有意义的研究和结论。在我国,兼并收购的历史还不长,不过已经有许多学者对兼并收购的绩效进行了深入的研究,也得到了许多有意义的结论。与之前的国内文献不同,本文试图从另外一个视角来研究兼并收购的绩效问题,研究牛市下兼并收购和熊市下兼并收购的绩效的差异。作者发现牛市下的兼并收购短期绩效显著优于熊市下的兼并收购,但是,长期绩效显著劣于熊市下进行的并购。这个结果在作者控制了其他可能影响兼并收购绩效的变量之后,依然显著,而且显著性有所提高。作者尝试依据牛熊市下,投资者对于并购规模的敏感程度,从投资者情绪的角度解释短期并购绩效差异,发现牛熊市下短期并购绩效的差异主要是由投资者的情绪和过度反应导致的。同时,作者尝试用时机选择理论、羊群效应理论和托宾Q理论来解释牛熊市长期并购绩效的差异,发现托宾Q理论能够更好地解释这一现象。与此同时,作者在对其他变量的研究中发现,与西方市场不同,中国投资者对于支付方式等交易特征变量并没有表现出太多的关注,这主要与我国并购市场的监管以及股票发行制度有关。公司自由现金流比率和掏空与支持动机对短期绩效有一定的解释力度,财务杠杆比率和掏空与支持动机对长期绩效差异有解释意义。这个结果与西方文献的研究基本一致。公司估值指标,如市净率、市值、前一年增长率等,对于并购的长短期绩效解释力度都有限。
[Abstract]:In the United States, the merger and acquisition of listed companies has a long history, foreign scholars have also provided a lot of meaningful research and conclusions. In China, the history of mergers and acquisitions is not long, but many scholars have done in-depth research on the performance of mergers and acquisitions, and got many meaningful conclusions. Different from previous domestic literature, this paper attempts to study the performance of mergers and acquisitions from another perspective, and to study the differences between the performance of mergers and acquisitions in bull markets and those in bear markets. The author finds that the short-term performance of merger and acquisition in bull market is significantly better than that in bear market, but the long-term performance is significantly worse than that in bear market. After controlling for other variables that may affect the performance of mergers and acquisitions, the results are still significant and significantly improved. According to the sensitivity of investors to M & A scale in bull bear market, the author tries to explain the difference of short-term M & A performance from the angle of investor sentiment. It is found that the difference of short-term M & A performance in bull bear market is mainly caused by investor sentiment and overreaction. At the same time, the author tries to explain the difference of long-term M & A performance of bull bear market with timing theory, herding theory and Tobin Q theory, and finds that Tobin Q theory can better explain this phenomenon. At the same time, in the study of other variables, the author found that, unlike in the western markets, Chinese investors did not pay much attention to the transaction characteristic variables, such as payment methods. This is mainly related to the regulation of the M & A market and the stock issue system in China. The ratio of free cash flow and tunneling and supporting motivation can explain the short-term performance to some extent, while the financial leverage ratio and tunneling and supporting motivation can explain the difference of long-term performance. This result is basically consistent with the western literature. Corporate valuation indicators, such as price-to-book ratio, market value, the previous year's growth rate and so on, have limited long-term and short-term performance explanations for mergers and acquisitions.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】