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金融危机的发生机制及防治对策研究

发布时间:2018-05-25 00:23

  本文选题:金融危机 + 发生机制 ; 参考:《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文


【摘要】:随着全球经济的快速发展,金融创新的应用以及信息网络技术国际化,各国经济正朝着更加密切的方向推进,然而大家在享受商品经济快速发展带来的成果的同时也在不断承受金融危机带来的巨大灾难。1933年美国大萧条后,在一个长期过度阶段中,各国又在承受大大小小危机打击,尤其近二十年来,伴随全球经济快速发展,危机爆发次数不断增加:1992年爆发了欧洲货币体系危机,1994年爆发了墨西哥金融危机,1997年又爆发了亚洲金融危机,1998年相继发生了俄罗斯、巴西金融危机,进入21世纪又爆发了令人触目惊心的美国次贷危机,由其引发的全球恐慌与经济萧条导致各国经济严重下滑。基于此,探究金融危机爆发深层次原因及其发生机制从而提出防治性建议已经迫在眉睫。 然而笔者在查阅以前学者研究成果后发现,大部分学者对危机爆发原因集中于货币层面引发的危机,更多将危机爆发根源归结于货币层面如货币不稳定引发通胀与紧缩、金融创新过度与监管缺失、虚拟经济过度膨胀等角度,很少有学者从危机爆发前实体产业是否平衡发展等角度去探究危机更深层次原因,即使有学者从实体经济角度或者实体经济与虚拟经济角度进行研究,也都为了单一解决某一问题而提出,缺乏全面性,同时虽然学者对危机爆发原因做了大量研究,但对于危机是如何层层递进由失衡到助推过程然后到泡沫破裂进而爆发全球性金融危机即危机发生机制的系统性研究较少。 基于金融危机频发的现实与理论研究的不足,本文在学者们已有研究成果的基础上,从实体经济层面、货币层面以及实体经济与虚拟经济协调发展层面系统研究金融危机的原因,进而剖析从根源到助推过程再到危机爆发层层递进的金融危机的发生机制,并针对金融危机的各层次原因和发生机制,提出具有参考价值的防治对策。 本文共分六章展开研究:第一章是绪论,主要介绍文章选题背景与研究意义,同时指出文章的创新与不足之处;第二章为文献综述,通过总结国内外学者从各个角度对金融危机发生原因的研究,找出当前研究的不足之处,从而突出本文研究创新点;第三章为金融危机的内涵与原因,主要从理论上对金融危机的概念、分类以及表现进行一个系统的总结,从而指出当前危机的主要表现与原因,为后文研究危机发生机制奠定理论基础;第四章为金融危机发生机制,从根源到助推过程到危机爆发层层递进的研究危机发生机制;第五章为案例检验,主要运用美国08金融危机发生机制来进一步验证上述理论研究成果,增加文章说服力;第六章为防治建议,主要在文章上述理论研究基础上,针对金融危机各层次原因与发生机制,提出具有参考价值的防治建议。 本文的主要观点是:金融危机发生的主要原因来源于实体经济层面,由于实体经济发展比例失衡(产业内发展比例失衡与产业间发展比例失衡)引发社会供求失衡,在商业信用膨胀与投资—储蓄失衡、进出口失衡以及国际资本流动等多种因素助推下,社会供求失衡演化为产品与虚拟资本供求矛盾下的社会总供求失衡,最终在虚拟经济泡沫膨胀发展而破灭后爆发金融危机。金融危机发生机制便是:金融危机发生根源为产业内比例失衡与产业间比例失衡,产业内比例失衡导致社会产品供求失衡与社会贫富差距的加大,产业间比例失衡导致社会虚拟资本供求失衡,同时第一、二产业受挤兑,虚拟经济部门发展迅速。社会供求矛盾与居民消费需求以及企业资产证券化和社会投机行为催生商业信用蓬勃发展,商业信用的发展一方面导致社会信贷过度,金融创新加剧,社会投机行为导致虚拟资本泡沫,社会虚假繁荣掩盖了社会供求矛盾;另一方面,商业信用下借贷行为增加以及社会供求矛盾、贫富差距增大下居民消费需求推动社会投资—储蓄失衡,投资严重超过储蓄进一步增加了社会供求矛盾。再者产业间比例失衡导致实体产业受挤兑,企业生产无法满足社会需求,一国便长期依赖进口,增加了贸易赤字,同时投资—储蓄失衡也加剧了进出口失衡,巨大的贸易赤字一方面引发本国汇率下降,国际投机资本的冲击进一步推动汇率下降,严重恶化了贸易赤字,本国为保持国民经济平衡而利用财政赤字弥补贸易逆差,长期的财政赤字导致汇率进一步贬值以及社会通胀,在一定程度上加剧了本国社会供求失衡。综上因素的推动下,最终演化为社会总供求失衡,虚拟资本供求失衡、投机加剧引发的虚拟经济泡沫最终破灭而爆发金融危机。 本文的主要创新:第一,在剖析危机发生原因后,发现危机的爆发并不是一个短暂的货币层面失衡引发,而是在一个长期的实体经济失衡过程中逐步影响金融系统,最终虚拟经济泡沫破裂引发危机,因而危机爆发根源于实体经济发展比例失衡;第二,当前大多数理论研究成果主要集中于研究危机爆发原因,而对金融危机发生机制的研究较少,而本文在汲取前人研究经验的基础上,将分析重点落于危机发生机制,在借鉴前人研究基础上,笔者立足于实体经济层面,首先通过由浅入深、由表及里的研究方式对危机爆发从根源到助推器到爆发进行一个系统研究分析,指出危机爆发不简简单单源于货币层面不稳定,而是由于长期实体经济发展比例失衡引发社会财富分配不均,社会生产相对过剩与居民消费水平有限之间的矛盾不断突出,无限的消费需求导致投机、借贷增加,金融监管缺失下利益催生金融衍生品层出不穷,虚拟经济过度膨胀,经济泡沫破裂最终爆发危机。文章力求在开放经济条件下通过马克思再生产理论中关于实体经济比例协调原理,开放经济条件下的国民收入恒等、投资-储蓄原理,以及国际资本流动相关理论,层层逻辑清晰的对危机爆发各个层面分析透彻,并在此基础上,利用21世纪发生的典型危机—美国次贷危机发生机制来为上述研究理论做一个实例检验,增强文章说服力,进而指出危机爆发的深层次原因来源于实体经济层面,是由于实体经济发展失衡一步步催生经济泡沫而爆发金融危机。文章最后在上述研究基础上,从危机发生机制的各个层面出发,为当今世界各国提出一些有效防治危机的可借鉴性建议,从而为经济全球化平稳发展做出一些贡献。 本文的不足在于:文章首先从实体经济比例失衡角度来探究危机发生根源,而国内外相关文献主要基于货币层面或者单一的从实体经济与虚拟经济关系角度研究,所以可供借鉴学习的文献资料比较少,从而本文在文献查阅和理论方面可能存在不足,同时对于危机发生机制的研究,更为缺乏,所以在一定程度上给文章研究带来困难;另一方面,对于危机而言,许多学者都是从汇率、利率、证券股指等角度搜集数据进行研究,而对于产业发展状况数据分析较少,这对于从数据支撑理论研究方面带来一些麻烦。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the global economy , the application of financial innovation and the internationalization of information network technology , the economies of all countries are moving in closer direction . However , after the Great Depression of the United States in 1933 , in a long - term over - stage , countries have suffered a big and small crisis . Especially in the past two decades , in the wake of the financial crisis in Europe , the global panic and the economic depression caused by the financial crisis have caused serious economic downturn . Based on this , it is urgent to explore the deep level of the financial crisis and its mechanism to put forward the prevention and control proposals .

However , after consulting the previous scholars ' research results , most scholars have focused on the crisis caused by the monetary level in the crisis of the crisis , which is more deeply rooted in the monetary level , such as the monetary instability , the inflation and contraction , the excessive expansion of the virtual economy , and the lack of comprehensive property . At the same time , the scholars have done a lot of research on the causes of the crisis . However , the systemic study on how the crisis is caused by the imbalance to the boosting process and then the burst of the global financial crisis , namely , the crisis - generating mechanism .

Based on the research results of the financial crisis , this paper studies the causes of financial crisis from the perspective of entity economy , monetary level and real economy and virtual economy , and then analyzes the mechanism of financial crisis from the root cause to the crisis , and puts forward some reference value for preventing and controlling the financial crisis .

This thesis is divided into six chapters : the first chapter is the introduction , mainly introduces the background and the research significance of the article selection , and points out the innovation and deficiency of the article ;
The second chapter provides a review of the causes of the financial crisis at home and abroad , and finds out the shortcomings of the current research , so as to highlight the innovation points in this paper .
The third chapter is the connotation and the cause of the financial crisis , which mainly summarizes the concept , classification and performance of the financial crisis , and points out the main manifestations and causes of the current crisis , and lays a theoretical foundation for the mechanism of the post - crisis research crisis .
The fourth chapter is the mechanism of the financial crisis , from the root causes to the crisis in the crisis .
The fifth chapter is a case study , which mainly applies the mechanism of the US 08 financial crisis to further verify the above - mentioned theoretical research results and increase the persuasive power of the article . Chapter 6 provides some valuable suggestions for prevention and control based on the theoretical research of the financial crisis , which is based on the theoretical research of the financial crisis .

The main reason of the financial crisis is that the main reason of the financial crisis comes from the entity economy , and the imbalance of the supply and demand of the society is caused by the imbalance of the proportion of the real economy and the imbalance between the imbalance of the industry and the international capital flows . The mechanism of the financial crisis is that the imbalance of the supply and demand of the social products and the imbalance of the balance between the industries and the balance of the industry proportion lead to the imbalance of supply and demand of the social products and the development of the virtual economy .
On the other hand , the increase of borrowing behavior under the commercial credit and the contradiction between the supply and demand of the society , the increase of the gap between the rich and the poor , the social investment - savings imbalance , the investment of more than the savings further increase the social supply and demand contradiction .

First , after the analysis of the causes of the crisis , it is found that the outbreak of the crisis is not a short - term monetary - level imbalance , but gradually affects the financial system in the process of a long - term entity ' s economic imbalance , and the final virtual economic bubble bursts into a crisis , so that the crisis is rooted in the imbalance of the entity ' s economic development proportion ;
Second , most of the theoretical research results are mainly focused on the study of the causes of the crisis , and the research on the mechanism of the financial crisis has been reduced .

The deficiency of this paper is : Firstly , the article explores the causes of crisis from the angle of the imbalance of the proportion of the entity economy , and the relevant literatures at home and abroad are mainly based on the angle of monetary level or single entity economy and virtual economy relation .
On the other hand , for the crisis , many scholars have studied the data from the angle of exchange rate , interest rate , stock index and so on .
【学位授予单位】:西南财经大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:F831.59

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本文编号:1931246


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