国家风险与中国对外直接投资

发布时间：2018-05-26 23:39

本文选题：国家风险 + 对外直接投资　；参考：《天津财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：“走出去”战略的实施已超过十个年头,十年来,中国对外直接投资(FDI)总量节节攀升,在国际市场上正逐渐由配角向主角转变。在经济结构调整,拓展海外市场,寻求稳定可靠的能源供应,合理使用外汇储备等多重需求的引导之下,中国的对外直接投资将在一段时期内将保持持续增长,但由于国际经营环境的复杂性和多变性,加之投资经验的缺乏,其经营业绩和投资收益都不容乐观。在对外直接投资所涉及的各类风险中,有一类风险是基于东道国主权行为,或源自东道国经济和政治环境的变动,如国有化、政策变动、经济衰退、主权债务危机、战争、政变、自然灾害等,称之为国家风险。国家风险不同于企业的经营风险,其成因复杂多样,依靠企业自身的力量难以化解,是造成对外直接投资亏损的最重要原因。因此,对国家风险及其对于对外直接投资的影响进行研究具有非常重要的现实意义。本文全面分析了国家风险的内涵、构成要素和表现形式,对比不同类型的国家风险评价体系,筛选其中的核心指标,运用回归模型,以我国对外直接投资的主要流向国为研究对象,对FDI流入量与该国的国家风险之间的相关性进行实证分析。得出的结论为：一国的国家风险水平与该国FDI净流入量呈负相关关系,即国家风险水平的上升将减少该国所吸引的外国直接投资或引起外资的流出,实际GDP增长率等六项指标的波动都是解释FDI净流量变化的显著变量。结合实证分析的结果,文章进而为中国企业如何有效防范对外直接投资的国家风险、提高投资回报率提出了相关的建议和对策。
[Abstract]:The "going out" strategy has been implemented for more than 10 years. In the past ten years, the total amount of China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has been rising, and it is gradually changing from supporting role to leading role in the international market. Guided by the restructuring of the economy, the expansion of overseas markets, the search for a stable and reliable energy supply and the rational use of foreign exchange reserves and other multiple demands, China's foreign direct investment will continue to grow for a period of time. However, due to the complexity and variability of the international business environment and the lack of investment experience, its operating performance and investment returns are not optimistic. Among the types of risks involved in OFDI, one is based on the sovereign behaviour of the host country, or arising from changes in the host country's economic and political environment, such as nationalization, policy change, economic recession, sovereign debt crisis, war, Coups, natural disasters, etc., are called national risks. The national risk is different from the management risk of the enterprise, its cause is complex and diverse, relying on the strength of the enterprise itself is difficult to resolve, which is the most important reason for the loss of foreign direct investment. Therefore, the study of national risk and its impact on FDI is of great practical significance. This paper comprehensively analyzes the connotation, elements and forms of national risk, compares different types of national risk assessment systems, selects the core indicators, and applies regression model. This paper analyzes the correlation between FDI inflow and national risk of China's foreign direct investment (OFDI). The conclusion is that the national risk level of a country is negatively correlated with the net inflow of FDI, that is, the increase of the national risk level will reduce the foreign direct investment that the country attracts or cause the outflow of foreign capital. The fluctuation of six indexes, such as real GDP growth rate, is a significant variable to explain the change of FDI net flow. Combined with the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for Chinese enterprises to effectively guard against the national risks of FDI and to improve the rate of return on investment.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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