我国系统性金融风险的测度与防范研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 07:43

本文选题：系统性金融风险 + 金融压力指数　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：从二十世纪九十年代末的东南亚金融危机,到2008年的次贷危机,再到欧美主权债务危机,近年来在国际范围内金融危机不断频发,引起各国的高度重视,金融危机的防范已经成为一个世界性的课题。我国经过30多年的改革开放,取得了举世瞩目的巨大发展,但同时也面临新的问题,在金融领域尤为突出。完善金融体制,加强金融监管与金融风险防范已迫在眉睫。本文通过对我国系统性金融风险现状的分析,总结国内外相关研究文献和防范措施,利用系统分析的方法,对我国金融系统性风险进行考察与研究。本文运用金融压力指数这一概念来解释我国系统性金融风险的产生、变化以及预测防范,指标体系主要借鉴了Balakrishnan,Danninger,Elekdag and Tytell的构建方法,在变量选取上根据我国具体国情,选择了银行业风险利差、股票市场波动性和主权债务利差等三个指标,根据对比不同时期我国金融压力指数的变化反映我国系统性金融风险的变化情况。本文还通过构建回归模型验证了金融压力变化对GDP的影响,并以此为依据,指出及时控制防范金融系统性风险对我国经济持续稳定增长的重要性。文章还依据以上分析对系统性金融风险的防范提出了相关的政策建议,指出完善现有的金融体制,加强有效的金融监管,建立合适的预警机制,及时迅速的作出反应是预防风险的有效途径。
[Abstract]:From the Southeast Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, to the subprime crisis in 2008, and to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the financial crisis in the world has been frequent in recent years, which has aroused the high attention of all countries. The prevention of the financial crisis has become a worldwide topic. After 30 years of reform and opening up, China has made a lift. There is a great development in the world, but it is also facing new problems, especially in the financial field. It is imminent to improve the financial system and strengthen financial supervision and financial risk prevention.
Through the analysis of the current situation of systemic financial risk in China, this paper summarizes the relevant research literature at home and abroad and the preventive measures, and makes use of the method of system analysis to investigate and study the financial systemic risk of our country. This paper uses the concept of financial pressure index to explain the emergence, change and prediction of our national financial risk. The index system mainly draws on the construction method of Balakrishnan, Danninger and Elekdag and Tytell. According to the specific national conditions of our country, the index system selects three indexes, such as the risk difference of the banking industry, the volatility of the stock market and the difference of sovereign debt, which reflect the systematic gold of our country according to the changes of the financial pressure index in different periods of China. This paper also validates the impact of financial pressure change on GDP by building a regression model, and points out the importance of timely control of financial systemic risk on sustained and stable growth of China's economy. The article also puts forward relevant policies to prevent the systemic financial risk from the above analysis. It is pointed out that it is an effective way to prevent risk by improving the existing financial system, strengthening effective financial supervision, setting up appropriate early warning mechanism and responding promptly and quickly.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5;F224

【参考文献】