珠江三角洲地区中小企业信贷风险的度量研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 07:30

本文选题：珠三角 + 中小企业　；参考：《暨南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：珠三角地区中小企业发展迅速，为其提供贷款服务已经成为金融机构的新兴业务。然而，中小企业的违约风险一直处于较高水平，因此建立能够准确度量区域内中小企业信贷风险的模型非常重要。本研究首先对传统和现代的多个信贷风险模型作了介绍和比较，，然后回顾了珠三角中小企业过去三十多年的发展历程，总结出这一企业群体在新时期面临的信贷风险影响因素。本文提出了16个指标变量，综合反映了宏观经济因素、区域经济因素、行业发展因素以及企业内部因素对企业违约风险的影响；然后利用Logistic回归方法以及企业样本数据进行统计分析，筛选出6个具区别力的指标，并估算出变量参数，建立起能有效度量珠三角中小企业信贷风险的模型。模型结果显示珠三角地区生产总值年增长率、行业增加值年增长率、企业的净资产收益率、成本费用利润率、流动比率以及净资产增长率的提高，都能显著降低区域内中小企业的违约概率。该模型也以较高的准确度通过了拟合优度检验和后续样本测试。此外，本文提出了完善珠三角中小企业信贷风险管理的政策建议，认为金融机构应该密切关注企业的经营状况、区域经济表现和行业发展状况，采用合适的信贷风险度量模型，并加强贷后风险防范。
[Abstract]:The small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta are developing rapidly and providing loan services has become a new business of financial institutions. However, the default risk of SMEs is always at a high level, so it is very important to establish a model that can accurately measure the credit risk of SMEs in the region. This study first introduces and compares the traditional and modern credit risk models, then reviews the development of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta over the past 30 years, and summarizes the influencing factors of the credit risk faced by this enterprise group in the new period. This paper puts forward 16 index variables, which comprehensively reflect the influence of macroeconomic factors, regional economic factors, industry development factors and internal factors on the risk of enterprise default. Then, by using Logistic regression method and enterprise sample data for statistical analysis, six discriminant indexes are selected, and variable parameters are estimated to establish a model that can effectively measure the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta. The results of the model show that the annual growth rate of GDP, the annual growth rate of industry added value, the rate of return on net assets, the profit margin of cost and expense, the current ratio and the growth rate of net assets in the Pearl River Delta region are improved. Both can significantly reduce the probability of default of small and medium-sized enterprises in the region. The model has passed the goodness of fit test and subsequent sample test with high accuracy. In addition, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the credit risk management of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta, and thinks that the financial institutions should pay close attention to the business situation, the regional economic performance and the development of the industry, and adopt the appropriate credit risk measurement model. And strengthen the risk prevention after the loan.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.4;F224;F276.3

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