国际金融危机对中国外商直接投资的影响机理与对策

发布时间：2018-06-04 04:42

本文选题：国际金融危机 + FDI　；参考：《当代财经》2010年02期

【摘要】：基于1998年1月至2008年10月的月度数据,通过对中国实际利用外资的影响因素进行经验分析后发现,中国股市成交量、对外出口量是影响中国FDI流入的显著内在因素,但经验分析没有发现中国股市规模、人民币汇率和经济增长率会显著影响中国FDI流入的证据。另外,研究还发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,美国长期资产收益率的上升和OECD国家广义货币供给量的增加,会使中国的实际利用外资数量下降。因此,历史数据并不能说明中国FDI流入受到了跨国公司融资能力的制约。中国必须采取措施降低国际金融危机对FDI流入的负面影响,以保证中国经济的稳定增长。第一,可以采取稳定股市的政策,保持股市活跃交易,以吸引跨国并购资金的流入;第二,可以考虑对人民币进行适度贬值,或至少保持人民币币值稳定,避免因西方国家货币贬值对中国出口的不利影响;第三,可以采用诸如提高出口退税率等非汇率政策,保持中国出口的良好前景。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly data from January 1998 to October 2008, through empirical analysis of the factors influencing China's actual utilization of foreign capital, it is found that China's stock market turnover and export volume are significant internal factors affecting China's FDI inflow. But empirical analysis has found no evidence that the size of China's stock market, the yuan exchange rate and economic growth rate will significantly affect China's FDI inflows. In addition, the study also found that under other conditions, the rise of long-term asset yield in the United States and the increase of broad money supply in the OECD countries will reduce the amount of foreign capital actually utilized by China. Therefore, historical data do not show that China's FDI inflows are constrained by the ability of multinationals to raise funds. China must take measures to reduce the negative impact of the international financial crisis on FDI inflows in order to ensure the steady growth of China's economy. First, we can adopt a policy of stabilizing the stock market and keep the stock market in active trading in order to attract the inflow of funds from cross-border mergers and acquisitions; second, we can consider moderately devaluing the renminbi, or at least keep the value of the renminbi stable. Third, we can adopt non-exchange rate policies such as increasing export rebate rate to maintain a good prospect of Chinese exports.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(09BJY003) 上海“曙光计划”项目(09SG32)
【分类号】：F832.6

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