次贷危机的扩散机制研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 01:05

本文选题：次贷危机 + 扩散机制　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：20世纪九十年代以来，国际资本的迅速流动，金融衍生品的不断推陈出新，巨额的短期资本在股市和汇市的频繁进出，为投资者提供了广泛的投资机会，也为各国经济的发展提供了优越的外部条件，同时也给世界经济和国际金融领域的稳定带来了新的冲击和不稳定性。在此背景下爆发的大大小小的金融危机，已成为当今世界经济生活中一种常态。本研究以次贷危机为研究对象，探寻次贷危机的形成机理，阐释次贷危机扩散的动力机制和传播路径，通过定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，剖析次贷危机的扩散机制，并提出防范和化解金融风险的策略体系。在对经济危机、金融危机和次贷危机等相关核心概念界定的基础之上，对次贷危机产生的根源进行了规范分析，得出了货币内在矛盾的激化、经济人利己和利他的冲突，以及资本内在矛盾的激化为其产生的根源；通过对次贷危机爆发的实际考察，系统总结了次贷危机升级为金融危机，金融危机转化为经济危机的演进机理，得出了次贷危机从信贷市场到资本市场，从虚拟经济到实体经济的扩散机制，，从而奠定了全文的理论基础。从系统论的观点分析了次贷危机扩散的基础、渠道和机理，得出了其扩散的系统动力学机制。从规范经济学的范式分析了次贷危机扩散的效应，即在次贷危机扩散过程中存在着凯恩斯效应、威克塞尔效应、财富效应和资产负债表效应。并从贸易、投资、消费者信心三个角度分析了次贷危机对中国经济的影响，并对其实际影响进行了总体判断。再从贸易渠道、金融渠道和心理渠道对次贷危机的扩散进行了实证研究。得出了次贷危机贸易渠道的扩散主要源于汇率的竞争性贬值，并且竞争性贬值的非合作博弈纳什均衡比所有国家联合行动共同对付危机的合作均衡更差的结论；金融渠道的扩散主要源于利率和汇率的双重作用所导致的估值效应而产生的，得出了估值效应发生的利率和汇率条件；而心理渠道的扩散主要源于人们预期的变化所导致消费、投资减少所产生的。三种扩散渠道的机理均来源于实体经济体系中恒定状态的打破。最后通过对传统的金融危机预警的信号分析模型进行修正，选取24个新兴工业化国家为样本，构建了金融危机的预警模型。同时，也通过对模型的实证检验，给出了次贷危机扩散的深度和广度的定量解答和数理证明。针对次贷危机扩散的实际情况，给出了防范和化解次贷危机的相关对策和建议，提出了以内需拉动经济增长是应对金融危机的根本措施，加快实现产业结构升级是防范国际经济波动的有效途径，建立金融风险防御机制是维护金融体系稳定的有力措施，以及维持人民币汇率稳定以防止危机进一步扩散传播的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the rapid flow of international capital, the continuous introduction of financial derivatives, and the frequent inflow and exit of huge short-term capital in the stock and foreign exchange markets have provided investors with a wide range of investment opportunities. It also provides favorable external conditions for the economic development of various countries, and also brings new shocks and instability to the stability of the world economy and international financial field. In this context, the financial crises, large and small, have become the norm in the world economic life. This research takes the subprime mortgage crisis as the research object, explores the formation mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, explains the dynamic mechanism and transmission path of the sub-prime mortgage crisis diffusion, and analyzes the diffusion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. At the same time, the paper puts forward the strategy system of preventing and defusing financial risks. On the basis of defining related core concepts such as economic crisis, financial crisis and sub-prime crisis, this paper analyzes the root causes of sub-prime mortgage crisis, and concludes that the internal contradiction of currency is intensified, and the conflict between economic person and altruism. Through the actual investigation of the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, this paper systematically summarizes the evolution mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis and the financial crisis into the economic crisis. The diffusion mechanism of subprime mortgage crisis from credit market to capital market, from virtual economy to real economy is obtained, thus laying the theoretical foundation for the full text. This paper analyzes the basis, channel and mechanism of the spread of subprime mortgage crisis from the point of view of system theory, and obtains the system dynamic mechanism of its diffusion. This paper analyzes the diffusion effect of subprime mortgage crisis from the paradigm of normative economics, that is, the Keynesian effect, Wicksell effect, wealth effect and balance sheet effect in the process of sub-prime crisis diffusion. This paper also analyzes the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's economy from the perspectives of trade, investment and consumer confidence, and makes a general judgment on its actual impact. And then from the trade channels, financial channels and psychological channels to the spread of subprime mortgage crisis empirical research. It is concluded that the diffusion of sub-prime crisis trade channel is mainly due to the competitive devaluation of exchange rate, and the non-cooperative game Nash equilibrium of competitive devaluation is worse than the cooperative equilibrium of all countries in joint action to deal with the crisis. The diffusion of financial channels is mainly caused by the valuation effect caused by the dual action of interest rate and exchange rate, and the interest rate and exchange rate conditions of the valuation effect are obtained, while the diffusion of psychological channel is mainly caused by the consumption caused by the change of people's expectation. The result of reduced investment. The mechanism of the three diffusion channels comes from the breakup of the constant state in the real economy system. Finally, by modifying the traditional signal analysis model of financial crisis early warning, 24 newly industrialized countries are selected as samples to construct the early warning model of financial crisis. At the same time, through the empirical test of the model, the quantitative solution and mathematical proof of the depth and breadth of the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis are given. In view of the actual situation of the spread of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and resolve the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and puts forward that domestic demand is the fundamental measure to deal with the financial crisis. Speeding up the upgrading of the industrial structure is an effective way to prevent international economic fluctuations, and the establishment of a financial risk defense mechanism is a powerful measure to maintain the stability of the financial system. And to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability to prevent the spread of further spread of the crisis countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.59

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