欧洲债务问题:演进、影响、原因与启示

发布时间：2018-06-10 04:39

本文选题：欧洲债务 + 演进　；参考：《国际经济评论》2010年03期

【摘要】：欧洲债务问题从冰岛危机开始,已经经历了大概三个阶段,即外向型、外来型和传统型三个不同层面的债务问题。收支结构失衡这一传统型债务问题在欧洲具有较强的普遍性。欧洲债务问题可能进一步深化,涉及更多的国家,但是引发金融危机第二波的可能性较小。欧洲债务问题短期内可能难以演化为崩溃式的主权债务危机,但欧洲债务问题将深刻影响金融市场、市场预期、欧盟发展和经济复苏,将是未来金融稳定性、全球经济复苏和欧盟一体化进程的一个重大不确定性。欧洲债务问题的爆发具有全球金融危机等外部性冲击,更有欧盟及欧元区内部经济结构不平衡、财政货币政策二元结构、财政纪律松散以及欧盟一体化制度缺陷等根本问题。欧盟需要制定短期、中期和长期的政策应对和制度改革。欧洲债务问题给中国很多启示,需警惕欧洲债务问题对出口和经济复苏的潜在影响,同时更应该摸清债务的真实水平,提防地方债务问题,加强政策应对和制度改革,以防范债务和财政风险。
[Abstract]:Europe's debt problem, which began with the Icelandic crisis, has gone through about three stages: extroverted, foreign and traditional. The traditional debt problem of unbalanced balance of payments has a strong universality in Europe. Europe's debt problem is likely to deepen, involving more countries, but is less likely to trigger a second wave of the financial crisis. The European debt problem may not evolve into a collapsing sovereign debt crisis in the short term, but the European debt problem will have a profound impact on financial markets. The market expects that the future financial stability will be the development and economic recovery of the European Union. The global economic recovery and EU integration process is a major uncertainty. The outbreak of the European debt problem has the external impact such as the global financial crisis, the internal economic structure of the European Union and the euro zone is unbalanced, the dual structure of fiscal and monetary policy, the loose fiscal discipline and the defects of the European Union integration system, and so on. The EU needs to formulate short -, medium-and long-term policy responses and institutional reforms. China needs to be aware of the potential impact of Europe's debt problems on exports and economic recovery, and should also understand the true level of debt, guard against local debt problems, and strengthen policy responses and institutional reforms. To guard against debt and fiscal risk.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院;
【分类号】：F835

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