国际资本流动背景下我国金融安全问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 16:13

本文选题：国际资本流动 + 金融危机　；参考：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,国际资本在国际金融市场上大规模地,以惊人的速度高速增长,其与金融危机之间的关系也日益密切。80年代以来爆发的多次金融危机都与国际资本流动有着密切的联系,国际资本流动逐渐成为促使金融危机发生的重要的外部推动因素。随着我国金融经济开放度的不断提高,国内资本流动量也在不断增大,流入我国的国际资本在产生积极作用的同时,也带来很多潜在的风险,基于以上的研究背景,本文提出了在国际资本流动背景下我国金融安全问题研究。本文结合经济学、金融学、计量学方面的相关理论模型,借鉴他人的研究成果,收集整理大量数据,结合本国实际,对我国资本流动、金融安全问题进行研究。本文研究的重点就是在认识国际资本流动与金融危机之间联动机制的基础上,对我国国内目前的国际资本流动情况进行分析,进而对我国的金融安全度进行测量,对我国的金融安全状况给出定性定量的判断,最后提出维持我国金融稳定的对策措施。本文研究结构如下：第一部分：提出本文的研究意义与研究背景,在相关理论模型的基础上,分析国际资本流动与金融危机之间的联动机制。分析了拉美债务危机与东南亚金融危机和国际资本流动之间的关系,对外负债规模过大、证券股票市场投资、国际投机因素等都是引致金融危机发生的重要因素。第二部分：本部分主要阐述了流入我国的国际资本状况,具体对资本净流入状况、资本流入结构与国内热钱规模进行描述和分析,利用相关数据,对我国国内国际资本流动状况进行分析。第三部分：本部分主要分析测算了国内的金融安全度,通过构建国际资本流动预警指标体系,对我国金融安全状况给出一个总体上的判断,然后根据二元选择Probit模型计算我国金融危机发生的概率,对我国金融安全状况得出定量的测算。第四部分：本部分主要根据前文的分析结果,提出在国际资本流动背景下保持我国金融稳定的对策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, international capital has grown at an alarming rate on a large scale in the international financial market. The relationship between financial crisis and financial crisis is also increasingly close. Since 1980s, many financial crises have been closely related to international capital flow. International capital flow has gradually become an important external driving factor to promote the financial crisis. With the continuous improvement of financial and economic openness in China, the domestic capital flow is also increasing. The international capital flowing into our country not only has a positive effect, but also brings a lot of potential risks, based on the above research background. This paper puts forward the research of financial security in China under the background of international capital flow. This paper combines the relevant theoretical models of economics, finance and metrology, draws lessons from the research results of others, collects and collates a large number of data, and combines with the reality of our country. Capital flow and financial security in China are studied. On the basis of understanding the linkage mechanism between international capital flow and financial crisis, this paper analyzes the current situation of international capital flow in China, and then measures the degree of financial security in China. This paper gives a qualitative and quantitative judgment on the financial security of our country, and finally puts forward some countermeasures to maintain the financial stability of our country. The research structure of this paper is as follows: in the first part, the significance and background of this paper are put forward, and the linkage mechanism between international capital flow and financial crisis is analyzed on the basis of relevant theoretical models. This paper analyzes the relationship between the Latin American debt crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis and international capital flows. The international speculative factors are the important factors leading to the financial crisis. Part two: this part mainly expounds the international capital situation into our country, specifically the net capital inflow situation. The structure of capital inflow and the scale of domestic hot money are described and analyzed, and the situation of domestic and international capital flows is analyzed by using relevant data. By constructing the early warning index system of international capital flow, this paper gives a general judgment on the financial security situation of our country, and then calculates the probability of the financial crisis according to the binary choice probit model. The fourth part: according to the above analysis results, this part puts forward the countermeasures to maintain the financial stability of our country under the background of international capital flow.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832

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