通货膨胀预期形成、锚定:基于消费者和经济学家预期的分析

发布时间：2018-06-13 20:25

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 预期形成　；参考：《当代经济科学》2010年04期

【摘要】：本文在区分居民通货膨胀预期和经济学家通货膨胀预期的基础上,研究通货膨胀预期形成和锚定的特点,发现经济学家通货膨胀预期呈现不规则的正态分布,往往在通货膨胀实际值较低时更多的经济学家做出偏高预期。居民通货膨胀预期显示低收入阶层对物价上涨更为敏感,大城市居民通货膨胀预期最敏感。总体如果半数以上的人认为物价上涨,则出现恶性通货膨胀的概率增加。发现居民物价预期指数是通货膨胀的格兰杰成因,但经济学家通货膨胀预期却不必然导致通货膨胀发生。国际比较发现英国居民物价预期指数显著高于中国。锚定通货膨胀预期的关键是防止通货膨胀预期加速形成,防止中央银行陷入通货膨胀预期陷阱,为此需要单一化中央银行职责,建立通货膨胀预期中期监测机制,竖立中央银行反对通货膨胀的信任度。
[Abstract]:On the basis of distinguishing resident inflation expectations from economists' inflation expectations, this paper studies the characteristics of the formation and anchoring of inflation expectations, and finds that economists' inflation expectations show an irregular normal distribution. More economists tend to make higher expectations when inflation is lower in real terms. Household inflation expectations show that low-income groups are more sensitive to rising prices, with big city residents most sensitive to inflation expectations. Overall, if more than half of people think prices are rising, the probability of hyperinflation increases. It is found that the consumer price expectation index is the Granger cause of inflation, but economists' inflation expectations do not necessarily lead to inflation. International comparison found that the British consumer price expectations index is significantly higher than China. The key to anchoring inflation expectations is to prevent the accelerated formation of inflation expectations and to prevent the central bank from falling into the trap of inflation expectations. For this reason, it is necessary to single out the responsibilities of the central bank and establish a medium-term monitoring mechanism for inflation expectations. Set up the central bank's confidence against inflation.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行金融研究所;
【分类号】：F820

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