中美贸易顺差与我国通货膨胀的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-16 16:59

本文选题：中美贸易顺差 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《安徽农业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，特别是加入世贸组织之后，中国的出口保持强劲的增势，贸易总额逐年递增，中美贸易额也不断增长，中美贸易顺差也呈现不断递增趋势，中美贸易顺差额在中国的顺差额占据很大的比例。诸多研究表明，贸易顺差造成我国输入型通货膨胀。在贸易顺差方面贡献最大者归属美国，与此同时中美贸易摩擦频繁发生，再加上美国最近几年经济不景气及政策措施给我国贸易造成的冲击及高的通货膨胀似乎有着必然联系，为了进一步研究我国通货膨胀的根源，解决我国的通货膨胀的部分问题，从中美贸易顺差着手有着重要的意义。第一部分引言，主要介绍写作背景及研究的目的和意义，综述了国内外学者对输入型通货膨胀以及中美贸易顺差的问题的研究成果，并对本文的研究方法和结构安排做一说明。基于2011年是我国通胀较为严重的一年，投资尤其是房地产受到政府的调控，且消费一直不足，出口依然呈现相对较好的态势的背景下，研究中美贸易顺差问题，对解决我国的输入型通货膨胀问题有着实际借鉴意义和指导意义。本文的创新点是基于国与国的角度，采用因子分析，逐步分析法对中美贸易顺差的因素进行提取进而研究中美贸易顺差对通货膨胀影响。第二部分介绍通货膨胀的基础理论知识，如凯恩斯学派通货膨胀理论，货币学派通货膨胀理论，斯堪的纳维亚模型等，并分析贸易顺差引起通货膨胀的传导途径第三部分介绍我国最近18年的贸易状况以及中美贸易发展现状，将中美贸易额与我国的整个贸易额相比较，发现中美贸易额和我国的贸易额保持同步增长的态势，且中美贸易额占我国贸易额的比例逐年递增，表明我国的贸易额和贸易顺差额的最大贡献归属于中美贸易。然后分析了中美贸易顺差的原因。第四部分为实证分析部分，基于上述可能引起中美贸易顺差的因素，对这些因素进行了因子分析，，逐步分析法提取对中美贸易顺差的重要因素，然后基于这些重要因素与我国的通货膨胀（物价指数CPI）构造计量经济模型，研究中美贸易顺差与我国通货膨胀之间的关系和对我国通货膨胀的影响程度。第五部分，基于第四部分研究结果，提出在中美贸易中提高我国贸易利得的措施和减少中美贸易顺差对我国通货膨胀的影响的政策和建议。第六部分，总结全文，本文从中美贸易现状着手，基于在对外贸易角度通货膨胀传导途径及理论基础，对中美贸易顺差的因素与通货膨胀两者之间的关系进行实证研究，进而提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, especially after China's accession to the WTO, China's exports have maintained a strong growth trend, with the total volume of trade increasing year by year, the trade volume of China and the United States also increasing, and the Sino-US trade surplus showing a trend of increasing constantly. The Sino-American trade balance accounts for a large proportion of the favorable balance in China. Many studies show that China's import inflation is caused by trade surplus. The largest contribution to the trade surplus is attributed to the United States. At the same time, there are frequent trade frictions between China and the United States. In addition, the economic recession in the United States in recent years and the impact of policies and measures on China's trade and high inflation seem to have a certain connection. In order to further study the root causes of inflation in China and solve some problems of inflation in China, it is of great significance to start with the trade surplus between China and the United States. The first part introduces the background of writing and the purpose and significance of the research. It summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on imported inflation and Sino-US trade surplus, and explains the research methods and structure of this paper. Based on the fact that 2011 is a year of serious inflation in China, the investment, especially real estate, is regulated by the government, and the consumption has been insufficient, and the export is still showing a relatively good situation, the trade surplus between China and the United States is studied. It has practical reference and guiding significance to solve the problem of imported inflation in our country. The innovation of this paper is based on the point of view of countries, using factor analysis and stepwise analysis to extract the factors of Sino-US trade surplus, and then to study the effect of Sino-US trade surplus on inflation. The second part introduces the basic theories of inflation, such as Keynesian inflation theory, monetary inflation theory, Scandinavian model, etc. The third part introduces the trade situation of our country in the last 18 years and the current situation of Sino-US trade development, and compares the Sino-American trade volume with the whole trade volume of our country. It is found that the Sino-American trade volume and China's trade volume keep increasing synchronously, and the proportion of Sino-US trade volume to China's trade volume is increasing year by year, which indicates that the biggest contribution of China's trade volume and trade balance is attributed to Sino-US trade. Then it analyzes the causes of the trade surplus between China and the United States. The fourth part is the empirical analysis part, based on the above factors that may cause Sino-US trade surplus, the factors are analyzed, and the important factors of Sino-US trade surplus are extracted by stepwise analysis. Then based on these important factors and China's inflation (CPI) econometric model is constructed to study the relationship between Sino-US trade surplus and China's inflation and the degree of influence on China's inflation. In the fifth part, based on the research results of the fourth part, the author puts forward some measures to increase the gains from trade between China and the United States and the policy and suggestions to reduce the impact of Sino-US trade surplus on China's inflation. The sixth part, summarizes the full text, this article starts from the Sino-US trade present situation, based on the foreign trade angle inflation transmission way and the theory foundation, carries on the empirical research to the Sino-US trade surplus factor and the inflation relations. And then put forward policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.7;F822.5;F224

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