人民币汇率变动对四川省劳动密集型产品出口的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-18 08:38

本文选题：人民币 + 实际有效汇率　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：1994年1月1日,我国进行了人民币汇率制度的第一次改革,改革的方向为市场化,人民币汇率制度开始实行以市场的供给和需求为基础,改变以往存在复汇率的状况,实施官方汇率和市场汇率合二为一的单一汇率,人民币汇率的波动幅度也控制在一定的波动范围内,可以说这是非正式的人民币与美元开始挂钩,美元的变动直接影响人民币的波动情况。在东南亚金融危机爆发之前,人民币是处于一个稳中上升的趋势,但金融危机之后,我国汇率的波动范围进一步缩小,事实上,此时人民币汇率已经变为跟随美元变动的固定汇率。原来的汇率制度也显现出了固有的弊端,我国的国际收支严重失衡,由于美元的贬值,人民币也相应贬值导致的经常项目和资本项目的双顺差严重；双顺差引起我国与周边贸易国家产生了贸易摩擦；同时人民币的不断贬值导致我国外汇储备的快速增加,最终流通中的货币不断增加,我国通货膨胀的压力不断加剧。在这样的情况下,我国人民银行决定从2005年的7月21日开始,实行新的汇率制度,此阶段属于人民币汇率的第二次改革。此后,人民币不再单一的盯住美元变动,而是在汇率市场的供给和需求的基础上,人民币参考一篮子的货币变动的有管理的浮动汇率制度。一篮子货币依据我国主要贸易国家货币,按照我国与贸易国家的贸易比重编制一种综合性的货币指数,我国参考的一篮子货币包括美元、日元、韩元等等。在此次汇改之日,中国人民银行将人民币汇率下调,人民币升值近2%左右,从此人民币开始了不断的升值。且2008年上半年,人民币首度破7,自第二次汇改以来,人民币的升值幅度达到了19%。2008年下半年金融危机的爆发使人民币停止了不断升值的步伐。2010年6月19日,为了进一步增加人民币汇率的波动弹性,我国央行决定重启人民币汇率制度的改革,仍然坚持在市场供需基础上,参考一篮子货币对人民币汇率的波动浮动进行有效的管理。此后人民币开始不断升值,特别受到美国次贷危机和希腊债务危机的影响,人民币升值速度加快。人民币从2010年6月的6.83升值到2012年3月的6.29。可见,近年受各种因素的影响,人民币汇率的波动相当频繁。同时,伴随着经济的发展,出口已经成为带动四川经济发展的主力军。仅2011年四川省就实现290亿美元的出口贸易额,且四川省对外贸依存度也逐渐提高,外贸的发展不仅带动了我省的经济发展还为解决我省大量劳动力的就业问题做出了重大的贡献。在我省出口商品中绝大部分是劳动密集型产品,这些产品的生产过程需要大量的劳动力投入,由于劳动密集型产品的生产吸收大量劳动力,这不仅可以解决下岗工人就业问题,还可以吸收农村大量剩余劳动,解决我省就业压力问题,从而保证了经济的发展和社会的稳定。 2011年,四川省出口的劳动密集型产品占总出口额的近60%-70%。其中仅机电产品的出口就增长了92%,出口额达170.4亿美元,且是远远超出同期全国机电产品的出口增长速度。但是机电产品的出口中增加速度最快,带动出口的主力产品仍然是劳动密集型的产品,比如电话机、集装箱、家电类、各类相机、手表等等。四川省出口纺织制品、织物和纺织纱线类的出口增长了4.3%,其出口额为11.5亿美元；箱包和旅行用品在2010年的基础上增长了1倍多,达到了17.7亿美元；同时,农产品的出口也是大幅增加,增长比例达到20.4%；鞋靴类的出口也达到了8亿美元。国内外对汇率与贸易之间关系的理论研究比较多。早期的价格-铸币机制认为,在金本位体制下,经济活动不需要政府的直接干预,经济具有自动调节的功能,这种功能可以使经济失衡状况趋向于国内外均衡的状态。在金本位制下,如果一国出现国际贸易收支的盈余,那么该国必然会吸入大量的黄金,而卖出本国的货币,由于黄金的输入,国内黄金存量增加,国内货币的供给将增加。在商品价格具有完全弹性的状况下,一国的贸易收支盈余会引起国内物价的普遍上涨。物价上涨表示用外币表示的本国商品的价格上升,本国出口的商品在国际市场中的竞争力将下降,这样就会减少出口,而增加进口,这种循环将持续到国际收支盈余消失即国际收支均衡的状态达到为止。同理,如果一国贸易赤字,其调整过程是相反的。大卫·休谟的“价格-铸币流动机制”为当今的国际收支理论的发展奠定了良好的基础,为以后汇率与贸易关系研究产生了重大的影响。汇率弹性分析认为汇率的变动影响一国商品的进出口相对价格,从而改变一国的国际收支。一国货币的贬值能否从根本上改变一国贸易收支,主要取决于该国商品的进出口商品的供给弹性和需求弹性。一国货币相对的贬值能否改善贸易条件,主要取决于该国的出口供给弹性、该国对进口产品的需求弹性、外国从该国进口产品时的需求弹性、外国出口产品到该国的供给弹性。在假定该国和外国对商品的供给是完全弹性的,即供给弹性为1,那么需求弹性的大小将直接决定该国货币贬值带来的贸易效应大小。当出口商品的需求弹性和进口商品的需求弹性之和大于1时,一国货币贬值可以改善该国的贸易收支,反之则货币的贬值会恶化一国的进出口状况。后来的J曲线效应认为一国汇率变动对进出口的影响有时滞效应,即汇率的升值或者贬值不会立即改变进出口状况,进出口量的变动将在一定时间段后才做出相应变动。在一国货币贬值初期,由于各国在认识、识别、反应等方面时滞的存在,尽管以外币表示的本国出口商品价格的下降,但由于时滞的存在,外国对本国商品出口的需求不会立马增加,从而本国出口商品的数量不会立马增加。另一方面,虽然以本币表示的外国进口商品的价格上升了,但是进口商品数量不会立刻缩小,从而进口不会立马下降。随着进口的继续增加,出口的继续减少,本币贬值恶化了贸易状况。待经过一段时间的调整,进口需求和出口供给都完全调整后,国际收支才开始慢慢的得到改善。调整的时间长短视不同国家情况而不同,少则本年多则五六年时间。可以看出,汇率对外贸影响的方式非常多,所以我们有必要在理论研究的基础上,通过实证的方式来分析汇率对四川省出口的影响,由于劳动密集型产品是我省出口的大头,因此有必要重点研究汇率对特定产业-劳动密集型产业的影响。本文将在理论分析汇率对四川省劳动密集型产品出口影响的基础上,选用2007年到2011年的月度数据,以传统劳动密集型产品—纺织品的出口,分析汇率变动对四川省劳动密集型产品出口的具体影响。本文的创新点在于理论结合实际的分析了汇率波动对特定地方的特定类型产品出口影响。在数据的选择上,本文选取了金融危机前后5年60个样本数据,充分分析次贷危机后人民币的频繁波动对出口的影响。同时,为更好的反映人民币汇率的波动情况,本文将选用月度数据。由于四川省劳动密集型产品出口数据的难以收集,本文实证部分仅使用了一种劳动密集型产品(纺织品)作为案例,不能完全充分的分析汇率波动对四川省劳动密集型产品的影响。本文研究分为五个部分：第一章主要介绍本文研究的背景状况、研究的意义、国内外研究的现状、本文的研究内容和方法、本文的创新和不足。第二章对本文将涉及到的相关理论进行阐述。首先分析汇率相关理论,然后分析汇率对产业影响的相关理论。第三章将分析我国经历的几次汇率改革,以及由此带来的汇率变动情况分析。第四章将对四川省劳动密集型产品出口情况进行分析。主要分析我省劳动密集型产品出口总体状况和自身特点。第五章基于第三章的分析基础上,选择相关模型,对人民币汇率的变动对四川省劳动密集型产品出口的影响进行实证分析。第六章是结论。综合定性分析和定量分析的结论,合理评价人民币汇率变动对四川省劳动密集型产品出口的影响。
[Abstract]:On January 1 , 1994 , our country undertook the first reform of RMB exchange rate system , the direction of reform is marketization , the RMB exchange rate system begins to carry out the single exchange rate based on the supply and demand of the market , and the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate is directly affected by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate .
The double surplus has caused the trade friction between China and the surrounding countries .
At the same time , the constant depreciation of RMB has led to the rapid increase of our foreign exchange reserves , and the currency in the final circulation is constantly increasing , and the inflationary pressure in our country has intensified .

In this case , the People ' s Bank of China has decided to introduce a new exchange rate system from July 21 , 2005 , which belongs to the second reform of the RMB exchange rate . After that , the RMB is no longer pegged to the dollar fluctuation again , but on the basis of the supply and demand of the exchange rate market , the RMB refers to the management floating exchange rate system of the currency fluctuation of a basket .

In the first half of 2008 , China ' s central bank decided to restart the RMB exchange rate system . Since the second half of 2008 , China ' s central bank has decided to restart the reform of the RMB exchange rate system . After that , China ' s central bank has decided to restart the RMB exchange rate system . After that , the RMB appreciation rate has accelerated . The yuan has risen from 6.83 in June 2010 to 6.29 in March 2012 . The yuan has been affected by various factors in recent years , and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is quite frequent .

At the same time , with the development of economy , the export has become the main force to drive the economic development of Sichuan . Only in 2011 , Sichuan Province has made great contributions to the export trade volume of US $ 29 billion , and Sichuan has made great contribution to solving the problem of labor intensive employment in our province . In the province , the majority of the export commodities are labor - intensive products , which not only can solve the problem of employment of laid - off workers , but also can absorb the large amount of surplus labor in the countryside and solve the problem of employment pressure in the province , thus ensuring the economic development and social stability .

In 2011 , labor - intensive products exported by Sichuan accounted for nearly 60 % -70 % of the total exports . Among them , exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 92 % , exports amounted to US $ 170 . 400 million , and were far beyond the export growth rate of the country ' s electromechanical products over the same period . However , the export of mechanical and electrical products was the fastest . The main products of export were still labor - intensive products , such as telephones , containers , household appliances , various cameras , watches , etc . The export of textile products , fabrics and textile yarns in Sichuan Province increased by 4.3 % , and their exports amounted to US $ 115 million ;
Box bags and travel supplies increased by more than 1 - fold on the 2010 basis , reaching $ 170 million ;
At the same time , the export of agricultural products is also greatly increased , with a growth rate of 20.4 % ;
The shoe ' s exports also amounted to $ 800 million .

At home and abroad , the theoretical research on the relationship between exchange rate and trade shows that economic activity does not need direct intervention of government and economy has auto - regulation function under the system of gold standard .

The devaluation of a country ' s currency can fundamentally change the country ' s trade balance , which depends mainly on the supply elasticity and demand elasticity of the country ' s imports and exports .

in that early period of the devaluation of the country ' s currency , the import demand and the export demand will not increase .

It can be seen that the influence of exchange rate on foreign trade is very much , so it is necessary to analyze the influence of exchange rate on the export of Sichuan Province on the basis of theoretical research . Because labor - intensive products are the big head of export , it is necessary to study the influence of exchange rate on the specific industry - labor - intensive industry .

Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on the export of labor - intensive products in Sichuan Province , the paper selects the monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to analyze the effect of exchange rate change on the export of labor - intensive products in Sichuan province by analyzing the export of traditional labor - intensive products - textiles .

The innovation points of this paper lie in the analysis of the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the export of a specific type of product in a specific place . On the choice of data , the paper selects 60 sample data before and after the financial crisis , fully analyzes the impact of the frequent fluctuation of RMB after the sub - loan crisis on the export . In the meantime , it is difficult to collect the export data of labor - intensive products in Sichuan . In the case of the empirical part , the paper uses only a labor - intensive product ( textile ) as a case , and can not fully analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on labor - intensive products in Sichuan Province .

The first chapter mainly introduces the background , the significance of the research , the current situation of the research at home and abroad , the contents and methods of the study , the innovation and deficiency of this article .

In the second chapter , the theory of exchange rate is discussed . Firstly , the theory of exchange rate is analyzed , and then the relevant theories about the influence of exchange rate on industry are analyzed .

In the third chapter , we will analyze the exchange rate reform experienced by our country , and analyze the change of exchange rate .

The fourth chapter analyzes the export situation of labor - intensive products in Sichuan province , and mainly analyzes the overall situation and characteristics of labor - intensive products in our province .

In the fifth chapter , based on the analysis of the third chapter , the correlation model is selected , and the influence of RMB exchange rate on the export of labor - intensive products in Sichuan Province is analyzed empirically .

The sixth chapter is the conclusion . The conclusion of comprehensive qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is to evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the export of labor - intensive products in Sichuan Province .
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62;F224

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