商业银行住房抵押贷款风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 10:18

本文选题：住房抵押贷款 + 理性违约　；参考：《西南财经大学》2009年硕士论文

【摘要】： 住房抵押贷款在我国于上个世纪90年代发展并壮大起来,至05年末四大商业银行个人住房贷款总量已达13489.23亿元(其中尚未包括建行发放的公积金贷款),而到2006年末单农行,中行,建行(工行数据缺失)三家房贷额总计已达05年的77%,可见增速之快。诚然,这一金融业务的开展,圆了我国千千万万百姓的住房梦。从开办之初到目前为止已有十余年的历史,银行一直把这一业务作为自身的亮点,因为相对于面临的风险,这项业务的收益是颇高的;而借款人也就是普通购房者,也欣喜于自己可以提前享受有房的感觉。但这之中隐藏着多大的风险?这些风险又会引发怎样的后患?据有关资料显示,截至08年2月末,沪上中资银行个人住房抵押贷款不良余额进一步上升,不良贷款率升至0.95%,比07年年初增加了0.37个百分点。而暴发于07年8月份的美国次贷危机更是给我们所有生活在这个世界上的人上了生动的一课,因为它的发生已经影响到了全世界的方方面面,包括我们的生活、工作。面临次贷危机引发的全球金融动荡,中国一些主要城市商品房交易萎缩,房价跌幅严重,“断供潮”、“退房潮”的频频出现,这些风险信号都在警示我们风险无处不在。面临风险我们如何识别,如何应对,这些都是值得关注与研究的。只有做好了足够的防范措施,才能在当风险发生时做到损失最小。本文正是基于这样的目的来着手研究这一问题,希望能给我国目前商业银行实际业务的操作带来一些启示意义,最大限度地减小其面临的风险。本文第一部分由最基本的住房金融相关概念开始介绍,包括住房金融的几种主要方式(公积金贷款、自营性个人住房贷款、组合贷款等),住房抵押贷款业务的特点分析,说明了住房抵押贷款既有零售业务的通性又有自身业务的特性,为在后面研究中所要涉及的住房抵押贷款风险分析做了一些理论铺垫;其后利用四大商业银行住房抵押贷款的相关数据说明我国住房抵押贷款发展的现状以及在这一业务领域里竞争程度的激烈;分析近期住房抵押贷款市场上出现的问题,并结合近两年国际以及国内出现的住房抵押贷款风险问题提出了本文的主要研究对象—住房抵押贷款风险研究。第二部分,结合一些实例及资料将各种可能的风险一一剖析,概括起来大致主要包括七类:来自开发商的风险、来自借款人的风险(包括理性违约风险和非理性违约风险)、抵押物价值的风险、银行自身的风险(多指银行的操作风险、业务经办人员的职业道德风险)、利率风险、流动性风险、通货膨胀风险,其中一些风险是系统性的,银行很难通过一些措施手段来防范,但另外一些风险却是可以通过一些方法、措施来减小或者防范的,本文主要也就是以银行可以发挥自身能动性来减弱其危害性的风险为主要研究对象的,在论述各种风险的过程中探究出引发这些风险的主要原因并归结,为下一部分的风险防范措施的提出、制度的完善做了准备。第三部分,首先介绍了目前世界上主要的三种住房金融模式:包括以德国为代表的合同储蓄模式、以新加坡为代表的公积金模式、和以美国为代表的抵押贷款模式。然后对美国这个老牌住房抵押贷款实施者(并且也是目前我国住房金融所采取的主要模式)的一些经验,包括实际操作中的一些具体细节,比如美国审慎的贷前调查具体的实施内容(这正是我国目前银行业在实际业务操作中所欠缺的和需要加强的),对借款人信贷评估记分法的应用,对抵押物价值的科学评估,完善的社会保障(为银行在面临信贷违约情况下高效执行抵押物提供了制度性保障)、保险体系,发达的住房抵押贷款二级市场,并对住房抵押贷款风险的评估引入计量模型达到精确刻画的标准。值得一提是,对提前还款这一住房抵押贷款市场上面临的特殊风险,美国等发达国家也有比较成熟的应对机制,为我国管理类似风险提供了思路指导。最后附带介绍了美国之外的其他一些发达国家在住房抵押贷款风险防范方面的一些有利措施,通过对发达国家风险管理经验的介绍,目的就是与我国商业银行的业务操作对比,引发思考、进而借鉴。第四部分,提出可供我国银行业借鉴、改进的方法、措施,包括:对银行业常用的主观评估法的改进,在通常的5C模式下提出了一些新的指标使主观评估法更为科学严谨,引入了信贷记分法(结合中国的实际国情),提出了收入预测模型以及对违约点进行的提前预测分析使商业银行能更好的控制风险,主张建立一个政府主导的保险、担保机制来主要为中低收入者提供抵押贷款担保。同时对一些一直是住房抵押贷款风险探讨的热点,比如住房抵押贷款资产证券化、提前还款等问题给出了自己的见解。较为细致的介绍了住房抵押贷款证券化的两种思路,讨论了当前我国形势下实施住房抵押贷款证券化的可行性以及需要注意的问题,比如信用增级问题;针对目前我国各商业银行只注重定性层面的风险衡量,缺乏定量手段的应用,引入了一些计量模型并详细介绍了相关原理,比如刻画宏观风险与微观风险的模型以及提前还款违约金设计。最后对一些制度层面的建设与完善提出了一些建议与设想,包括征信体系需要进一步完善、中介评估机构需要进一步规范及发展壮大、在全球金融大融合环境下更加需要的金融监管等方面的问题。
[Abstract]:Housing mortgage loans developed and expanded in China in the 90s of the last century. By the end of 05, the total amount of personal housing loans for the four major commercial banks had reached 1 trillion and 348 billion 923 million yuan (which had not yet included the fund loans issued by the CCB). By the end of 2006, the bank, China Bank of China, the Construction Bank (the lack of data from the industrial and Commercial Bank) totaled 77% of the 05 years. It is true that the development of this financial business has round the housing dream of hundreds of thousands of people in our country. From the beginning of it to so far more than ten years ago, the bank has been taking this business as its own bright spot because the income of this business is quite high relative to the risks faced; and the borrower is the ordinary home buyer. It is also happy to enjoy the feeling of having a house ahead of time. But what are the risks hidden in it? And what will the risks cause? By the end of 08 and 2, the poor balance of private housing mortgage loans in Shanghai and Chinese banks rose further and the rate of non-performing loans rose to 0.95%, which was 0.37 more than at the beginning of the 07 year. The American subprime crisis, which broke out in August in 07, is a vivid lesson for all of us living in the world, because it has affected all aspects of the world, including our life, our work, the financial turmoil caused by the subprime crisis, and the commercial housing in some of the major cities of China. Trading is shrinking, house price falls seriously, "break supply tide" and "retreat tide" appear frequently. These risk signals are all warning us that risk is everywhere. How to identify and deal with risk is worth paying attention and research. Only by doing well enough anti model measures can we minimize the loss when the risk occurs. This article is based on the purpose to study this issue, I hope to give our commercial banks actual business operation bring some enlightenment, to minimize the risk.
The first part of this paper begins with the introduction of the most basic concepts of housing finance, including the main ways of housing finance (provident fund loans, self-employed personal housing loans, combined loans, etc.), and the characteristics of the housing mortgage loan business, indicating that the housing mortgage loan has the characteristics of both the retail business and its own business. There are some theoretical paving for the risk analysis of housing mortgage loan in the following research, and then the related data of housing mortgage loans of four commercial banks are used to explain the current situation of the development of housing mortgage loan in China and the fierce competition in this business area; and the problems that appear in the recent housing mortgage loan market are analyzed. Combined with the risk of housing mortgage loan in the past two years, the main object of this paper is to study the risk of housing mortgage loan. The second part, combined with some examples and data to analyze the possible risks one by one, generalizes roughly seven categories: the risk from the developer, from the loan The risk of a person (including the rational and irrational default risks), the risk of the value of the mortgage, the risk of the bank itself (more refers to the operational risk of the bank, the professional moral hazard of the business operators), the interest rate risk, the liquidity risk and the inflation risk, some of which are systematic, and the banks are difficult to adopt some measures. To prevent, but some other risks can be reduced or prevented by some methods and measures. This article is mainly the main research object that the risk of the bank can play its own initiative to weaken its harmfulness. In the process of discussing various risks, the main causes of the risk are explored and summed up to the next. Part of the risk prevention measures are put forward and the system is perfected. In the third part, the main three housing financial models are introduced in the world, including the contract savings model represented by Germany, the model of Singapore as the representative of the provident fund, and the mortgage model represented by the United States. Some of the experience of the mortgaged mortgages (and the main model of housing finance in China), including some specific details in the actual operation, such as the specific implementation content of the prudent pre loan investigation in the United States (this is the lack of and need to be strengthened in the actual operation of the banking industry in our country), and the loan to the loan. The application of the credit scoring method, the scientific assessment of the value of the mortgages, the perfect social security (the institutional guarantee for the banks to execute the mortgages efficiently under the condition of the credit default), the insurance system, the two level market of the developed housing mortgage loan, and the evaluation of the risk of housing mortgage loan to the accuracy of the measurement model The standard of portrayal. It is worth mentioning that there is a mature coping mechanism in the developed countries such as the United States and other developed countries for the special risks faced in the housing mortgage loan market in advance. Finally, some other developed countries outside the United States are introduced to prevent the risk of housing mortgage loan. Some favorable measures, through the introduction of the experience of risk management in developed countries, aim to compare with the business operation of commercial banks in China, cause thinking, and then draw lessons from. The fourth part, proposed for our banking industry to learn from, improved methods, measures, including: the improvement of the subjective evaluation method commonly used in the banking industry, in the usual 5C model. Under the formula, some new indexes are put forward to make the subjective assessment more scientific and rigorous, and the credit scoring method (combined with the actual conditions of China) is introduced. The income prediction model and the advance prediction analysis for the default point make the commercial banks better control the risk. At the same time, it provides mortgage guarantee for middle and low income people. At the same time, some of the hot spots which have been the discussion of the risk of housing mortgage loan, such as the securitization of housing mortgage loan assets, advance repayment and so on, give their own opinions. The two ideas of housing mortgage securitization are introduced in detail, and the implementation of the current situation in China is discussed. The feasibility of mortgage securitization and the problems that need to be paid attention to, such as the credit rating problem; for the commercial banks in China, which only pay attention to the qualitative level of risk measurement, lack the application of quantitative means, introduce some measurement models and introduce the related principles, such as the model of portrayed macro risk and micro risk and the model as well as the model as well as the model of macro risk and micro risk. In the end, some suggestions and ideas are put forward for the construction and improvement of some system levels, including the need for further improvement of the credit collection system, the need for further standardization and development of intermediary evaluation institutions, and financial supervision and regulation in the environment of global financial integration.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F830.5

【引证文献】