基于滚动投资的我国A股股市泡沫研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 10:54

本文选题：滚动投资 + 股市泡沫度　；参考：《山西财经大学学报》2013年01期

【摘要】：运用改进的股利贴现股票内在价值计算模型以及对应的股市泡沫度计算公式,对我国20年来A股滚动投资1年到15年和12个月到180个月的股市泡沫度进行了计算,结果发现:短期内股票价格围绕价值线上下波动,股市泡沫度随着滚动投资年限的增加而变小;我国早期较高的股市泡沫度随着时间的推移而逐步得以化解;滚动投资期限越长,其股市泡沫度的运行轨迹就越处在内在价值线的下方,运行曲线越平稳;从长期看,企业的质量对股市泡沫的大小起决定性作用,对于业绩稳定且具有成长性的上市公司而言,股市泡沫会随着时间的推移而降低。
[Abstract]:Based on the improved intrinsic value calculation model of discounted stock with dividend and the corresponding formula for calculating the bubble degree of stock market, this paper calculates the bubble degree of China's A share market with rolling investment of 1 to 15 years and 12 months to 180 months in the past 20 years. The results show that the stock price fluctuates around the value line in the short term, the bubble degree of stock market decreases with the increase of the rolling investment years, and the higher bubble degree of stock market in the early stage of our country is gradually resolved with the passage of time. The longer the rolling investment period, the lower the operating trajectory of the bubble degree of the stock market is, and the more stable the operating curve is. In the long run, the quality of the enterprise plays a decisive role in the size of the stock market bubble. For listed companies with stable performance and growth, the stock market bubble will decrease over time.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：中国保险学会教保人身保险高校课题研究基金项目“资本市场变化周期对寿险投资策略的影响”(jiaobao2011-12)
【分类号】：F224;F832.51

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