人民币汇率的均衡、错位及其矫正

发布时间：2018-06-22 12:04

本文选题：汇率 + 均衡　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年12期

【摘要】：基于考虑中国和美国基本经济要素的人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率、美元实际有效汇率的多维度模型,研究了人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率、美元实际有效汇率的均衡、错位及其矫正。实证研究表明:中国和美国基本经济要素对人民币对美元实际汇率有重要的长期和短期影响,美国基本经济要素对人民币实际有效汇率存在长期和短期溢出效应,中国基本经济要素对美元实际有效汇率存在长期和短期溢出效应。2008~2010年,人民币对美元实际汇率高估5%~8%,人民币实际有效汇率高估2%~6%,2009~2010年,美元实际有效汇率接近均衡水平。
[Abstract]:Based on the multi-dimensional model of RMB / US dollar real exchange rate, RMB real effective exchange rate and US dollar real effective exchange rate, considering the basic economic factors of China and the United States, this paper studies the RMB real effective exchange rate against US dollar and RMB real effective exchange rate. The balance, dislocation and correction of the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar. The empirical study shows that the basic economic factors of China and the United States have an important long-term and short-term impact on the real exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, and that the basic economic elements of the United States have long-term and short-term spillover effects on the real effective exchange rate of the RMB. There are long and short term spillover effects of China's basic economic factors on the real effective exchange rate of US dollar. From 2008 to 2010, RMB's real exchange rate against US dollar is overvalued by 5%, RMB's real effective exchange rate is overvalued by 2% from 2009 to 2010, and the real effective exchange rate of US dollar is close to the equilibrium level.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院、经济计量分析与预测研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题实证研究”(11BJY014);国家社科基金重大项目“‘十二五'时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究”(10zd&010) 辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(W2013221) 百项课题千名专家学者服务新辽宁建设调研课题(20131s1dykt-26)的资助
【分类号】：F832.52;F224

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