中国居民储蓄率对经济增长的影响效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-23 08:09

本文选题：居民储蓄率 + 居民消费　；参考：《西南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：一直维持在高位的居民储蓄率为投资提供了充沛的资金来源,这也是我国经济维持快速发展的重要因素。更为重要的是,源源不断的资金流保证了金融机构的流动性,增强了银行的稳定性。随着2008年席卷全球的金融危机的持续蔓延,全球经济增速都在放缓。我国作为一个外贸依赖型的国家,全球经济的下滑对我国经济的影响不容小视。所以,研究城乡居民储蓄率的变化对我国经济增长的影响对于拉动内需、保持我国经济的又好又快发展是迫在眉睫。本文在充分考虑我国特殊的“二元经济体制”的现状的情况下,对城镇和农村分别建立了居民储蓄率的变化与经济增长之间关系的实证模型,再通过计量经济分析方法估计具有相关经济含义的参数,从而通过对相关参数值涵义的分析得出本文的结论。结论表明,在我国改革开放以来的这三十年里,农村居民储蓄率对农村的经济发展具有很强的负面影响；城镇居民储蓄率对城镇经济的发展则影响不大,总体上影响并不显著。最后,本文根据理论分析和实证分析所得出的结论,提出了几点政策建议。一、研究结论 1.城镇居民储蓄率对城镇经济增长率的影响不大,而农村居民储蓄率的变化则阻碍着农村经济的发展。文章首先通过理论推导得出居民储蓄率与经济增长率和投资增长率之间的理论关系式,然后根据收集的数据,采用计量方法得出我国城乡经济增长率与城乡居民储蓄率和城乡投资增长率之间的实证模型。通过检验系数判定选择指标的显著性,从而剔除不显著的指标,最后推导出的实证模型很好地说明了城乡居民储蓄率与城乡经济增长率之间的关系。 2.我国居民的储蓄存款仍在增加,预防性储蓄在居民储蓄存款中占相当大地比重。我国经济飞速发展,城乡居民的收入水平迅速增加,但住房、医疗、教育等高昂的价格还是让城乡居民的未来充满了变数。面对未来的不确定性,城乡居民势必会选择捂紧口袋,为预防而储蓄。储蓄作为一种自发性行为,如果想通过某种政策性手段,使得居民储蓄在短期能有一个极大的变化,是不符合现实情况的；而且我国的传统文化一向以“勤俭节约”作为美德,所以使得城乡居民的储蓄率发生巨大波动在短期内是不可能的。 3.居民储蓄对金融体系和资本市场的巨大作用使居民储蓄率必须保持稳健,否则可能会掀起经济的巨大的波动,在今天这样一个经济全球化的世界里甚至会波及到全球。这里所说的储蓄率要保持稳健,是指储蓄率在一段时期内的波动应该处于一个合理的区间,而不应在短期内有巨大的变化。储蓄率随着社会经济发展而变化,储蓄率能否处于一个最优的区间,关键要看其是否符合社会经济发展的客观要求,是否能够使公共经济与私人经济处于均衡的发展状态。但在实践中,这种客观存在的一个最优的区间却无法自动实现,由于储蓄实践中的各种主观因素的介入和扰动,尤其是公共分配行为的扭曲和谋取集团利益现象,使得储蓄率很难处于一个最优的区间,总是处于一个接近于最优的区间的这么一个范围里。所以,如何促使储蓄率处于一个最优的区间,如何使储蓄对经济发展的促进作用能够向着一个更加健康的方向发展,必须从以下几个方面采取措施：一、优化多层次的社会保障体系;二、拓展储蓄向投资的转化渠道;三、积极开拓新型消费市场,完善消费信贷政策。二、政策建议针对文术得出的研究结论,储蓄率的变化能够在短期内促进实际经济增长率的提高。笔者提出了以下几点参考性的思考政策建议： 1.优化多层次的社会保障体系,解决城乡居民的后顾之忧。优化多层次的社会保障体系,尤其是要加快构建农村居民的社会保障体系,从而可以减少农村居民预防性储蓄的那一部分,减少农村居民储蓄率的变化对农村经济发展的抑制作用。 2.拓展储蓄向投资转化渠道,使城乡居民的储蓄资金平稳变动。储蓄资金的波动过大对国民经济的健康发展不利,因此在积极拓展储蓄向投资转化渠道的同时,要保证储蓄资金健康、合理地转化为投资。 3.积极开拓新型消费市场,完善消费信贷政策,有利于拉动内需促进国民经济的发展。随着生活水平的提高和生活节奏的加快,一些传统的消费观念已不能满足时下作为未来消费主力军的“80后”“90后”对时代的需求。随之而来的就是一些新的消费热潮的流行,如网上购物的火爆、绿色食品的热销、快餐行业的繁荣等等。新的消费潮流带给人们便利的同时,也带来了一些监管上的困境,如网上诈骗、绿色食品的以假充真、快餐行业的健康卫生标准是否达标等等。另外,随着中西文化的交流,当代作为消费主力军的“80后”“90后”的消费观念也在悄悄地发生着变化,而且其对生活质量的要求也大大提高了,超前消费俨然已成为其头脑中唯一的消费观念。所以完善消费信贷政策,促进新型消费市场的规范化也是要着力解决的一大问题。
[Abstract]:As a foreign trade - dependent country , global economic growth is slowing . As a foreign trade - dependent country , the economic growth of our country is slowing . As a foreign trade - dependent country , the decline of the global economy is urgent for China ' s economy .
In the end , according to the conclusion drawn from the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis , several policy suggestions are put forward .

I . Conclusions of the study

1 . The urban residents ' savings rate has little effect on the growth rate of urban economy , while the change of rural residents ' savings rate is hindering the development of rural economy .

Based on the collected data , the paper derives the empirical model between the growth rate of urban and rural economy and the rate of urban and rural residents ' savings rate and the growth rate of urban and rural investment .

2 . The savings deposits of our residents are still increasing , and preventive savings account for a significant proportion of the population ' s savings deposits .

With the rapid development of our economy , the income level of urban and rural residents has increased rapidly , but the high prices such as housing , medical care and education still fill the future of urban and rural residents . Facing the uncertainty of the future , the urban and rural residents must choose to cover their pockets for prevention and saving .

As a kind of spontaneous behavior , if you want to adopt some kind of policy , so that the residents ' savings can have a great change in the short - term , which is not in accordance with the reality ;
Moreover , the traditional culture of our country has always been the virtue of " diligence and frugality " , so the great fluctuation of the savings rate of urban and rural residents will not be possible in the short term .

3 . The huge role of resident savings in the financial system and the capital market must be robust , otherwise there may be huge fluctuations in the economy , even in the world of today ' s economic globalization .

In practice , it is difficult to achieve the objective requirement of social and economic development , whether the savings rate can be in an optimal interval , and whether it can make public economy and private economy be in a balanced development state .

II . Policy recommendations

According to the research conclusion drawn from the literature , the change of the savings rate can promote the real economic growth rate in the short term .

1 . To optimize the multi - level social security system and solve the worries of urban and rural residents .

To optimize the multi - level social security system , especially to accelerate the construction of the rural residents ' social security system , so as to reduce the part of the rural residents ' preventive savings , reduce the change of the rural residents ' savings rate to the rural economic development .

2 . Expand the savings to the investment transformation channel , so that the savings fund of the urban and rural residents can change smoothly .

The fluctuation of the savings funds is unfavorable to the healthy development of the national economy . Therefore , it is necessary to ensure the healthy and rational transformation of the savings fund to the investment while actively expanding the channels for the conversion of savings to investment .

3 . actively explore the new consumption market and improve the consumer credit policy , which is beneficial to the promotion of domestic demand for the development of national economy .

With the improvement of living standard and the quickening of the pace of life , some traditional consumption ideas cannot be satisfied as the " 90 days " of the future consumption main force to the times . The following is the popularity of some new consumption hot trends , such as the online shopping , the hot sale of green food , the prosperity of the fast food industry , and so on .

The new consumption trend brings convenience to people , and also brings some regulatory difficulties , such as online fraud , green food , the healthy sanitation standard of fast food industry and so on . In addition , with the exchange of Chinese and Western culture , the consumption concept of modern consumption as the main force of consumption has changed quietly , and the demand for quality of life has been greatly improved , so the consumption credit policy is improved , and the standardization of the new consumer market is also a major problem to be solved .
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.22;F124;F224

【参考文献】