越南货币贬值与国际收支平衡关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 10:47

本文选题：经常账户逆差 + 入超　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2000年以来，越南盾贬值问题成为影响越南经济发展以及对外经济关系的一个重要问题。与一些发展中国家不同，货币贬值会给本国带来许多好处，，但越南货币贬值却给越南带来诸多负面影响。这是由于越南经济发展不够成熟、进出口结构不合理等问题所带来的后果。本文选取越南国际收支状况作为分析的出发点，深入分析越南盾贬值对越南的经常账户及资本和金融账户的影响，进而提出一些建议以及策略。在阐述出汇率理论、国际收支理论以及汇率对国际收支影响理论的基础上，本论文首先进行分析导致越南国际收支在2000年至2010年阶段逆差的原因及其现状，该部分本文采用越南统计总局网站的数据来展示越南国际收支在2000-2010阶段的现状。从具体的数据上进一步分析越南国际收支不平衡的原因以及越南国际收支不平衡与越南盾贬值。再次，具体分析当越南货币贬值会对国际收支带来哪些负面影响。本论文不仅仅使用数据来展示越南国际收支的现状，而且为了说明越南国际收支不平衡与越南盾贬值之间的关系，笔者采取计量经济学软件进行实证分析，进一步说明两者的联系。最后，通过前文分析对越南国际收支提出一些建议和策略。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, the devaluation of the dong has become an important issue affecting Vietnam's economic development and foreign economic relations. Unlike some developing countries, devaluation can bring a lot of benefits, but Vietnam has a lot of negative effects. This is due to Vietnam's economic development is not mature, import and export structure unreasonable and other problems brought about by the consequences. This paper selects Vietnam's balance of payments as the starting point to analyze the impact of Vietnam's devaluation on the current account, capital and financial accounts, and then puts forward some suggestions and strategies. On the basis of expounding the exchange rate theory, the balance of payments theory and the influence of exchange rate on the balance of payments, this paper first analyzes the causes and the present situation of Vietnam's balance of payments deficit from 2000 to 2010. This part uses the data of Vietnam Statistics Bureau website to show the current situation of Vietnam's balance of payments in the period 2000-2010. The causes of Vietnam's balance of payments imbalance and Vietnam's balance of payments imbalance and the devaluation of Vietnam's dong are further analyzed in terms of specific data. Thirdly, it analyzes the negative effects of Vietnam's devaluation on the balance of payments. This paper not only uses data to show the current situation of Vietnam's balance of payments, but also in order to explain the relationship between Vietnam's balance of payments imbalance and the devaluation of Vietnam's dong, the author adopts econometrics software to carry out empirical analysis. Further explain the connection between the two. Finally, through the previous analysis of Vietnam's balance of payments put forward some suggestions and strategies.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F823.33;F833.33

【参考文献】