后危机时代美国货币政策的走势——兼论资产价格与货币政策操作规则

发布时间：2018-06-26 14:49

本文选题：次贷危机 + 货币政策　；参考：《世界经济研究》2010年06期

【摘要】：次贷危机使人们认识到,美联储货币政策操作失误难辞其咎。在全球化日益加深和美元为核心的国际货币体系下,美国不断下调利率的扩张性货币政策效应没有像过去那样迅速反映在商品价格上,而是主要表现为资产价格的攀升。由于美联储货币政策操作遵循了"泰勒规则"——把CPI当作最主要的监控对象,致使美联储错过了适时调整货币政策最佳的时机,导致美国信用扩张过度、资产泡沫,特别是房产泡沫不断升级。资产价格的上升最终会通过"财富效应"、"托宾q效应"、"金融加速器效应"等逐渐传导到商品价格上,随着石油等大宗商品价格的持续攀升,美联储开始急速提高利率,最终引发了次贷危机的爆发。后危机时代,美国的资产价格开始了迅速的回升,美联储应该吸取货币政策调整滞后的教训,适时地退出刺激,避免资产价格迅速上升和通货膨胀对经济复苏带来的不利影响。
[Abstract]:The subprime crisis has made people realize that the monetary policy misoperation of the Federal Reserve is very difficult to blame. Under the increasingly globalized and dollar core international monetary system, the expansionary monetary policy effect of US interest rate reduction is not as quickly reflected in commodity prices as in the past, but mainly as a rise in asset prices. The Fed's monetary policy follows the "Taylor rule" - the CPI as the most important monitoring target, causing the fed to miss the time to adjust its monetary policy at the right time, leading to the overexpansion of the US credit, the asset bubble, especially the housing bubble, which will eventually pass the "wealth effect", "the" Tobin effect ". When the price of oil and other commodities continued to rise, the Fed began to raise interest rates rapidly as the price of oil and other commodities continued to increase rapidly, which led to the outbreak of the subprime crisis. Timely withdrawal from stimulus to avoid the rapid rise of asset prices and the adverse effects of inflation on economic recovery.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院世界经济研究所;
【分类号】：F827.12

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