人民币跨境流通及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 18:01

本文选题：人民币 + 跨境流通　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,在改革开放政策推动之下,我国经济始终保持平稳较快的增长势头,综合国力显著提高,国际地位不断增强,相应地人民币币值也保持稳中有升的势态。伴随着人民币币值的稳步提升,人民币在国际上的认可度和国际贸易结算中的使用量也越来越高,人民币在国际市场上流通量逐渐增加。随着人民币跨境流通数量的不断扩大,关于人民币跨境流通的研究也逐渐增多。本文在总结和吸收国内外大量研究成果的基础上,对人民币境外流通数量进行估算从而进一步研究影响人民币跨境流通的因素,最终提出促进人民币跨境流通的政策建议,以推进我国人民币逐步迈向国际化。本文主要分五个部分对人民币跨境流通及其影响因素进行了系统的分析和研究。第一部分主要阐述了本文的选题背景和意义,并对国内外的研究成果进行了回顾,在总结已有研究成果的基础上提出了本文的补充意义。第二部分在弄清了国际货币及货币国际化的内涵、人民币跨境流通实质的基础上,进一步阐述了货币国际化的相关理论,包括计价货币选择理论、货币替代理论以及最优货币区理论等,为以后各章的展开分析提供了理论框架基础。第三部分对人民币境外流通分布及其对我国经济的影响进行介绍。我们可以看出人民币在周边国家和地区的流通已经十分普遍,但是在国际范围内的流通还有待增加。通过分析对我国经济的影响,我们发现总的来说人民币跨境流通对我国经济的影响是利大于弊的。第四部分是对人民币跨境流通及其影响因素的实证分析,主要分为两个步骤。第一步是人民币境外流通数量的估算,利用间接法估算出1999到2010年人民币境外流通数量,发现自亚洲金融危机以来人民币在境外流通的数量具有逐年增加的趋势。第二步是人民币跨境流通影响因素的实证分析,从实证结果可以看出我国的经济实力、人民币的币值、对外贸易总额、国内物价水平等对人民币境外存量具有重要影响。最后,本文根据前面的实证分析提出了促进人民币参与跨境贸易结算推动人民币逐步迈向国际化的政策建议：第一,维持我国经济较快的增长速度；第二,保持人民币汇率稳中有升；第三,强化人民币跨境流通的管理和监测；第四,推动人民币参与国际结算。
[Abstract]:In recent years, driven by the policy of reform and opening up, China's economy has always maintained a steady and rapid growth momentum, the overall national strength has improved significantly, the international position has been continuously strengthened, and the corresponding value of the renminbi has also maintained a steady and rising trend. With the steady improvement of the value of RMB, the RMB is used more and more in the international trade settlement, and the circulation of RMB in the international market is gradually increasing. With the continuous expansion of the amount of RMB cross-border circulation, the research on RMB cross-border circulation is gradually increasing. On the basis of summing up and absorbing a large number of domestic and foreign research results, this paper estimates the amount of RMB circulation abroad and further studies the factors affecting the cross-border circulation of RMB, and finally puts forward some policy recommendations to promote the cross-border circulation of RMB. In order to promote China's RMB step by step towards internationalization. This paper mainly divided into five parts to analyze and study the RMB cross-border circulation and its influencing factors. The first part mainly expounds the background and significance of this paper, reviews the research results at home and abroad, and puts forward the supplementary significance of this paper on the basis of summarizing the existing research results. The second part, on the basis of clarifying the connotation of international currency and currency internationalization, and the essence of RMB cross-border circulation, further expounds the relevant theories of currency internationalization, including the pricing currency choice theory. The theory of currency substitution and the theory of optimal currency area provide the theoretical framework for the later chapters. The third part introduces the distribution of RMB circulation and its impact on China's economy. We can see that the circulation of RMB in neighboring countries and regions is already very common, but the circulation in the international scope still needs to be increased. Based on the analysis of the impact on China's economy, we find that, in general, the impact of RMB cross-border circulation on China's economy is more beneficial than harmful. The fourth part is the empirical analysis of RMB cross-border circulation and its influencing factors, mainly divided into two steps. The first step is the estimation of the amount of RMB circulation abroad, which is estimated by indirect method from 1999 to 2010. It is found that the amount of RMB circulating abroad has been increasing year by year since the Asian financial crisis. The second step is the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the cross-border circulation of RMB. From the empirical results, we can see that the economic strength, the value of RMB, the total foreign trade, the domestic price level and so on have important influence on the stock of RMB offshore. Finally, according to the previous empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote RMB participation in cross-border trade settlement to promote the gradual internationalization of RMB: first, to maintain the faster growth rate of China's economy; second, Keep the RMB exchange rate steady and rising; third, strengthen the management and monitoring of the cross-border circulation of RMB; fourth, promote RMB participation in international settlement.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】