货币政策对广东省房地产价格变动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 09:29

本文选题：货币政策 + 房地产价格　；参考：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国自1998年住房体制改革以来,房地产经济在全国各地蓬勃发展,广东省房地产经济更是在全国房地产业发展史上留下绚烂的一笔。在房地产经济推动实体经济增长的同时,也助长了房地产泡沫的出现。广东省商品房销售均价多年来持续高于全国商品房销售均价,尤其是深圳市和广州市的房价那更是扶摇直上。虽然国家多次强调要坚定不移地调控房地产价格,但是广东省房地产价格却始终还是处于高位。货币政策到底是否能有效调控广东省房地产价格这一命题受到了金融理论界和实践界的一致关注。本文在总结了前人的研究基础上介绍了货币政策及其传导机制的相关内容,分析了货币政策影响房地产价格的途径,然后阐述了货币政策调控下广东省房地产市场的发展情况,不仅将调控分为四个阶段,还比较了四个阶段里广东省房地产价格受到的影响程度,在该章节的最后还着重分析的广东省房地产价格持续走高的原因。接着在理论和现状的研究基础上运用VECM模型对我国货币政策调控广东省房地产价格的效果进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：第一,总体上货币政策是可以调控广东省房地产价格的,而且数量型货币政策工具(信贷额和存款准备金率)短期内有效,价格型货币政策工具(利率)长期影响显著,但同时货币政策对广东省房地产价格变动的影响存在时滞性。第二,宽松的货币政策相比于紧缩的货币政策对广东省房地产价格的影响更为显著、迅速。最后结合理论和实证的分析结果,提出了加强货币政策调控广东省房地产价格的相关建议,不仅要控制信贷,推进利率市场化以完善货币政策体系,还要完善广东省房地产市场运作体系,并且配合财政政策、行政命令等其他手段来调控广东省房地产价格。最后本文在全文的基础上作出总结分析,并指出当前研究的不足以及未来的研究方向,同时再次指出本文的研究意义,即为当前政策制定者提供一定的理论和实证参考。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, the real estate economy has been booming all over the country, and the real estate economy of Guangdong Province has left a splendid stroke in the history of the development of the national real estate industry. In the real estate economy to promote real-economy growth, but also contributed to the emergence of real estate bubbles. The average selling price of commercial housing in Guangdong Province has been higher than the national average price for many years, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Although the state has repeatedly stressed the need to unswervingly control real estate prices, but real estate prices in Guangdong Province has always been high. Whether monetary policy can effectively regulate the real estate prices in Guangdong Province has been paid close attention to by both the financial theorists and the practitioners. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies, this paper introduces the relevant contents of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, analyzes the ways in which monetary policy affects real estate prices, and then expounds the development of real estate market in Guangdong Province under monetary policy control. This paper not only divides the adjustment and control into four stages, but also compares the influence degree of the real estate price in Guangdong Province in the four stages. At the end of the chapter, the reasons why the real estate prices in Guangdong continue to rise are analyzed. On the basis of theoretical and current research, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of monetary policy on real estate price control in Guangdong Province by using VECM model. The empirical results show that: first, monetary policy can control real estate prices in Guangdong Province in general, and quantitative monetary policy instruments (credit volume and reserve requirement ratio) are effective in the short term. The long-term effect of price monetary policy instrument (interest rate) is significant, but the influence of monetary policy on real estate price in Guangdong Province is delayed. Second, the impact of loose monetary policy on real estate prices in Guangdong Province is more pronounced and rapid than that of tightening monetary policy. Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the monetary policy to control the real estate prices in Guangdong Province, not only to control credit, but also to promote the marketization of interest rates in order to improve the monetary policy system. It is also necessary to improve the real estate market operation system in Guangdong Province, and coordinate with fiscal policies, administrative orders and other means to regulate real estate prices in Guangdong Province. In the end, this paper makes a summary and analysis on the basis of the full text, and points out the deficiency of the current research and the future research direction. At the same time, it points out the significance of the research again, that is, to provide some theoretical and empirical reference for the current policy makers.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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