人民币跨境结算对我国国际收支失衡的影响

发布时间：2018-07-01 18:52

本文选题：结算货币选择 + 人民币跨境结算　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：最近三年来,人民币跨境结算业务进展顺利,一方面帮助我国进出口企业规避了汇率风险、减少了汇兑成本,有利于促进我国出口增长；另一方面,人民币跨境贸易结算、人民币直接投资的推出不可避免的对我国内外经济平衡产生影响。因此本文在跨境人民币结算推出近三年之际,结合国家十二五规划想要促进国际收支和对外贸易更加平衡的思路,借鉴国际收支相关理论和结算货币选择理论,分析两年多来人民币跨境结算的实际数据和发展趋势,归纳出其对我国国际收支平衡表各项目的影响。在此基础上,本文还根据人民币跨境结算的未来发展趋势分析了其对我国国际收支平衡的作用、总结了美国采用美元结算仍然导致收支失衡对我国的借鉴意义、也探讨了从欧债危机看区域货币的使用对各国国际收支的影响,最后针对目前人民币跨境结算呈现出的问题和借鉴他国推出本国货币国际化的经验教训提出相应的政策建议。本文结构主要分五个部分,以下是本文主要内容的概述：首先第一章引言部分,主要对全文的研究背景和文献综述做了介绍。本文主要是以国际金融危机后我国开展跨境贸易人民币结算为研究起点,试图从新的视角找出解决我国过年来的国际收支失衡问题的新办法和新思路。文献综述部分则是本文的研究基础,从三个方面对已有理论进行了归纳,分别是关于国际结算货币选择的理论综述、国际收支的理论综述和人民币跨境结算对我国国际收支失衡影响的文献综述。通过分析发现,中国作为全球第一大出口国,进口贸易额也位居全球第二,而我国的对外贸易到2011年底仍有90%采用外币结算,这与贸易规模、世界支付份额、出口商品需求决定交易结算货币的理论是相悖的,也说明当前我国大力支持跨境贸易人民币结算的战略是正确而可行的。并且根据国际收支的相关理论,人民币跨境结算的进一步深化是会对中国国际收支平衡的贸易项目、直接投资项目和外汇储备余额产生重大影响的。第二章主要是对人民币跨境结算业务的现状进行了概述。包括目前国内开展人民币跨境结算业务的发展现状、开展人民币结算的金融机构发展概况、海外开展人民币结算业务的国家现状。我国目前跨境人民币业务发展迅速,从贸易结算到直接投资、从逐步拓展试点区域到全球鼓励人民币结算、贸易服务直接投资项下的人民币——开放,还批准了银行间债券市场的开放和RQFII。在这过程中,以中银香港为代表的金融机构人民币清算和结算业务规模迅速增长,为国内外企业提供国际服务的水平迅速提高。海外国家和地区基于人民币币值的稳定和强大的经济实力,进一步接受人民币作为结算货币,甚至有的国家将人民币纳入自己的外汇储备管理。第三章主要研究了人民币跨境结算对我国国际收支主要项目的影响。本章是基于已经开展的业务和官方公布的数据进行的研究。包括对我国经常项目的影响、对我国资本和金融项目的影响和对我国外汇储备的影响。又进一步将各子项目拆分研究,细化了对货物贸易、服务贸易、直接投资、证券投资、其他投资的影响分析。通过数据分析,结果显示：人民币跨境结算业务开展以后,随着其交易结算量的逐步扩大,我国三大主要项目贸易收支、直接投资和外汇储备发展趋势有了变化。即经常项目顺差自07、08年达到历年高峰后,09年至11年逐年降低并趋向国际惯例的均衡状态。而资本和金融项目顺差在08年之后急速扩大,10年和11年顺差值均在两千亿美元以上。外汇储备余额总体增长趋势依旧,只是11年增幅略有缩小。第四章研究了人民币跨境结算的发展对我国国际收支平衡的作用。包括人民币双向直接投资结算将使外汇储备可控性提高、人民币离岸金融中心的建设可以完善人民币的回流机制、人民币逐步区域化直至走向国际货币使调节失衡主动权增强、美国采用美元结算仍然导致收支失衡对我国的借鉴意义和从欧债危机看区域货币的使用对各国国际收支的影响。本章的研究主要是根据这三年的发展趋势对人民币在跨境结算业务全面放开后可能的发展方向进行了展望,并从逻辑和经验上推测了其可能对我国国际收支的影响。由于目前人民币的进出口贸易结算和双向直接投资都已开放,初步的人民币离岸金融市场也已经形成,将来我们还需进一步拓展人民币的交易结算和投资规模,开发更多的人民币产品和服务,从各方面促进我国的内外经济平稳发展。而从美国的美元结算我们可以看出美国的国际收支平衡模式是经常项目和资本金融项目互相弥补式,我国要走的是各项目分别均衡模式,我们需要借鉴的是美国的发展经验,而不是畏而不前。欧洲债务危机并非源于欧元本身的缺陷,而在于欧元区部分国家的财政危机,我们目前需要借鉴的是欧洲债券市场的发展经验和监管措施,大力发展我国的债券市场,在促进我国人民币发挥保值功能的同时,避免类似悲剧发生。最后一章提出了人民币跨境结算配合国内结构调整促进我国国际收支平衡的政策建议。主要有提高跨境贸易中收益较高且具备比较优势的产业比重；进一步鼓励人民币直接投资项目下走出去和引进来,扩展人民币双向流通渠道；逐步建立完善人民币债券市场,提供人民币保值场所；进一步提升人民币的国际服务水平,同时逐步调整我国内部的经济结构。国际收支平衡表最主要反映的是我国在对外交往过程的货币收付情况,不论贸易结算和投资结算是采用哪种货币,调节国际收支平衡最终还需从贸易和投资本身入手。因此,我们需借着人民币跨境结算的东风,改善我国国内的经济结构和对外贸易的产业比重,在人民币的对外投资上要保证布局合理,提高收益,吸引外商直接投资时更要注重质量和技术辐射效应,促进我国经济金融部门合理均衡发展。本文的主要创新在于选题的创新和研究视角的创新,即将人民币跨境结算的试行初衷、发展历程和未来前景与我国长期国际收支失衡的国情结合起来研究,在外部环境复杂多变的条件下,借鉴美欧大国的货币与危机之间联系的经验教训,提出适合我国经济均衡发展并完善人民币的国际货币功能的调整性建议。由于本课题新颖导致的直接相关理论缺乏和对有效信息的甄选能力有限,本文还存在许多不足之处亟待改进,特别是研究深度不够、数据仍不够详实、对这一领域未来发展趋势的宏观判断和自己的政策建言尚显稚嫩,希望在今后的工作中能有更多的实践来激发灵感,有更多的时间来做深度研究。
[Abstract]:In the last three years, the cross-border settlement of RMB has progressed smoothly. On the one hand, it helps our import and export enterprises to avoid the exchange rate risk, reduce the exchange cost and promote the export growth of our country. On the other hand, the introduction of RMB cross-border trade settlement and the introduction of RMB direct investment will inevitably have an impact on our domestic and foreign economic balance.
Therefore, on the occasion of the introduction of the cross-border RMB settlement for nearly three years, this paper analyzes the actual data and development trend of RMB cross-border settlement for more than two years by using the theory of balance of payments and the money selection theory of settlement of balance of balance in the 12th Five-Year plan of the national plan to promote balance of international balance of payments and foreign trade. The impact of each item on the balance sheet.
On this basis, this paper also analyzes the role of the balance of payments in China according to the future development trend of the cross-border settlement of RMB, and summarizes the significance of the US dollar settlement still leads to the balance of revenue and expenditure on our country, and also discusses the influence of the use of regional currency on the balance of payments of each country from the European debt crisis. At present, the problems in the cross border settlement of RMB and the experiences and lessons from other countries in promoting the internationalization of their currencies are put forward and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
The structure of this paper is divided into five parts. The following is the outline of the main contents of this article.
The first chapter is the introduction part, which mainly introduces the research background and literature review of the full text. This article is mainly the starting point of the study of cross-border trade RMB settlement in China after the international financial crisis, trying to find out new ways and new ideas to solve the problem of balance of payments imbalance in China from a new perspective. It is the basis of this study, and the existing theories are summarized from three aspects, which are the theoretical summary of the currency selection of international settlement, the theoretical summary of the balance of payments and the impact of the cross-border settlement of RMB on the balance of payments imbalance in China. The amount also ranks second in the world, while foreign trade in our country still has 90% foreign currency settlement by the end of 2011, which is contrary to the theory of trade scale, world payment share and export commodity demand determining the transaction settlement currency. It also indicates that our country's strategy to support cross-border trade in the settlement of people's currency is correct and feasible at present. The further deepening of the cross-border settlement of RMB will have a significant impact on China's balance of payments trade items, direct investment projects and foreign exchange reserve balances.
The second chapter is mainly about the current situation of RMB cross-border settlement business, including the current situation of the development of RMB cross-border settlement business in China, the development of RMB settlement financial institutions and the status quo of the overseas Chinese RMB settlement business. To direct investment, from the gradual expansion of the pilot area to the global encouragement of RMB settlement, the renminbi under direct investment in trade services is open, and the opening of the interbank bond market is approved and RQFII. in this process, the business scale of the RMB clearing and settlement business, represented by China silver Hongkong, is rapidly increasing for domestic and foreign enterprises. The level of international services provided by the industry has increased rapidly. Overseas countries and regions further accept the renminbi as a clearing currency based on the stability and strong economic strength of the RMB value, and even some countries have incorporated the RMB into their foreign exchange reserves management.
The third chapter mainly studies the influence of RMB cross-border settlement on the main items of our international balance of payments. This chapter is based on the research that has been carried out and officially published. It includes the impact on China's current projects, the impact on China's capital and financial projects and the impact on China's foreign exchange reserves. The analysis of the impact on goods trade, service trade, direct investment, securities investment, and other investment. The results show that after the cross-border settlement of the RMB business, the three major owners of our country need the trade balance, direct investment and foreign exchange reserve development trend with the gradual expansion of the transaction settlement volume. There is a change. That is, the current account surplus has decreased from 09 to 11 years and tends to a balanced state of international practice from 09 to 11 years. The surplus of capital and financial projects is rapidly expanding after 08 years, and the surplus value of 10 and 11 years is above two hundred billion dollars. The overall growth trend of foreign exchange reserves remains still, only a slight increase of 11 years. There is a reduction.
The fourth chapter studies the effect of the development of RMB cross-border settlement on the balance of payments in China. The two-way direct investment settlement of RMB will improve the controllability of foreign exchange reserve. The construction of RMB offshore financial center can improve the reflux mechanism of RMB, and the RMB will be gradually regionalization to the international currency to adjust the imbalance main. The use of US dollar settlement still leads to the reference significance of balance of payments and the impact of the use of regional currency on the balance of payments of each country from the European debt crisis. The study of this chapter is mainly based on the prospect of the possible development direction of the cross-border settlement of the RMB after the three years of development trend. From the logic and experience, it speculates on its impact on China's international balance of payments. Since the current import and export trade settlement and two-way direct investment of RMB have been open, the initial RMB offshore financial market has also been formed. In the future, we need to further expand the transaction settlement and investment scale of RMB and develop more people. Money products and services promote the smooth development of our domestic and foreign economy from all aspects. From the US dollar settlement we can see that the American balance of payments model is a complementary form of the current account and capital finance project. The European debt crisis is not due to the defects of the euro itself, but in the financial crisis of some countries in the euro zone. We need to learn from the experience and supervision of the European bond market, to develop our bond market and to avoid similar tragedies and avoid similar tragedies while promoting China's people's currency to protect its value. Happen.
The last chapter puts forward the policy suggestions of the cross-border settlement of RMB and the adjustment of domestic structure to promote the balance of international balance of payment in China. It is mainly to improve the proportion of industries with higher income and comparative advantage in cross-border trade, and further encourage the RMB direct investment project to go out and lead in and expand the two-way circulation channel of RMB; We should establish and perfect the RMB bond market, provide the place for RMB protection, further enhance the international service level of the RMB, and gradually adjust the internal economic structure of our country. The balance of payments is mainly reflected in the currency receipts and payments of our country in the process of foreign exchanges, regardless of which kind of trade settlement and investment settlement are adopted In the end, we need to start with trade and investment itself. Therefore, we need to improve our domestic economic structure and the industrial proportion of foreign trade by means of the easterly wind of RMB cross-border settlement. In the foreign investment of RMB, we should ensure the rational layout, increase the income and attract the heavy quality of foreign direct investment. The radiation effects of quantity and technology will promote the rational and balanced development of China's economic and financial sectors.
The main innovation of this article lies in the innovation of the topic selection and the innovation of the research perspective, the initial intention of the trial operation of the RMB cross-border settlement, the development course and the future prospects and the national conditions of our country's long-term balance of payments, and the experience of the experience of the relations between the currency and the crisis of the United States and Europe in the complex and changeable external environment. It puts forward some adjustment suggestions that are suitable for the balanced development of China's economy and improve the RMB's international monetary function.
Because of the lack of direct related theory and the limited ability to select effective information, there are still many shortcomings in this paper, especially the lack of depth, and the data is still not sufficiently detailed. The macro judgment of the future development trend in this field and the suggestions for its own policy are still tender, hoping to work in the future. There can be more practice to stimulate inspiration and more time to do in-depth research.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】