我国上市商业银行财务绩效分析

发布时间：2018-07-03 01:41

本文选题：上市商业银行 + 财务绩效分析　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着改革开放的深入和社会主义市场经济的发展,银行初步建立了相对完善的现代法人治理结构,同时大型国有商业银行改革取得重大突破——交通银行、建设银行、中国银行和工商银行完成股份制改革,农业银行的1PO也成功上市,而中小股份制商业银行如招商银行、民生银行、浦发银行也迅速成长并壮大起来。根据2011年银行业协会颁布的《中国银行业发展报告》显示,2010年中国银行金融机构实现税后利润8992亿元,同比增长34.5%,2011年继续保持稳健运行以及快速发展的趋势,但利润增长趋势放缓。由此可见,我国银行业目前发展迅速,增长态势良好,纷纷上市的商业银行已成为我国资本市场的中流砥柱。市场经济的大发展为银行业提供了广阔市场和众多机会,而银行业的快速发展又为市场经济的良好运转提供了有力支撑和金融保障。同时,作为我国金融业主体的上市商业银行,其经营绩效和财务状况不仅影响到银行业的健康发展,而且还影响到整个金融业的稳定运行和良好运作态势,甚至对我国的经济运行都有着重要的影响。随着我国金融市场的逐步完善与规范,更多商业银行在谋求自身发展的同时也积极上市,将股权融资成为壮大其力量的手段。由于上市后要求对资产状况的披露,一方面使得银行业的操作运转更加公平透明,另一方面也方便了我们对其财务状况和经营效果的研究。而在后金融危机时期,面对外部经营环境日趋复杂的重大变化以及同业竞争的不断加剧,面对中国履行世贸协议银行业进入全面开放阶段的大环境,这给中国上市商业银行既带来了压力,也创造了转型机遇。为了适应激烈竞争的金融环境,增强我国上市商业银行的运营效率,化解金融风险、获得生存和加快发展,分析我国上市商业银行的财务绩效显得尤为重要。基于此,我选取了相继股改成功上市的十四家上市商业银行为分析对象。这十四家上市商业银行不仅资本实力雄厚,而且经营业绩优良,相对于我国整个银行业具有一定的代表性。因此,我通过分析上市商业银行的财务绩效,从而以点概面,以此研判中国银行业的发展状态与发展趋势,并通过对上市商业银行的财务报表以及交易、账户余额和披露的相关财务数据进行统计分析,找出各自的优势和不足,从而发扬优势克服不足,为管理者提供有价值的参考意见,以此来发挥其竞争优势,提高银行业的竞争力。有鉴于此,本文以现代商业银行财务绩效分析理论为指导,按照商业银行安全性、流动性、盈利性经营原则,将规范研究方法和实证研究方法相结合,概述了上市商业银行现状以及有关商业银行的管理理论,分析了上市商业银行最新数据所计算得来的财务指标,并采用数学建模的方式构建和完善了上市商业银行财务分析指标体系,运用财务绩效评价方法进行具体的实证分析,比较各个上市商业银行的财务绩效,以得到从财务角度上改进管理的建议以及提高银行竞争力的措施。本文共分六个部分：第一部分,首先交代了本文的写作目的和背景,概述了当前银行业整体处于大发展面临大机遇的时代背景；其次交代了写作意义,即对于投资者、经营管理者和监督执法者均有意义；最后概括了本文的主要内容、研究思路和方法。第二部分,综述了相关文献,概述了上市商业银行财务绩效分析的相关理论,即上市商业银行财务绩效理论、上市商业银行财务指标体系理论和财务绩效分析方法理论。第三部分,对目前我国上市商业银行的发展现状做了详细的总结。先对上市商业银行经营的国际环境和国内环境分别予以阐述,然后概括了我国上市商业银行体系的形成过程,并对我国银行业的发展现状做了描述。第四部分,构建了财务绩效评价指标体系,分别从盈利性分析、安全性分析、流动性分析和成长性分析四个方面来建造财务绩效分析体系,并且总共分析了十六个财务指标,分别把上市商业银行最近三年的财务指标数据制成表格形式表达出来,从各个数字上看出最近几年的运营情况。第五部分,根据上述四个财务指标上的原始数据,运用因子分析方法,并用STATA软件建立模型,得出我国上市商业银行的总体财务情况,并利用因子分析法对各家上市商业银行的主因子进行排序打分,分析各家上市商业银行在四个因子上的表现以及各自在运营上的优势与不足。最后预测上市商业银行未来可能在财务绩效上面的表现。认为未来大型银行作为行业“领头羊”的地位仍不会动摇,中小银行未来发展具有潜力,其中潜力巨大的银行有深发展银行、浦发银行和中信银行。第六部分,提出了加强上市商业银行的财务管理建议,首先认为我国上市商业银行应共同得到发展,在共同进步的基础上各家上市商业银行应做到特色发展,比如招商银行应发挥其服务优势、而工行应发挥其规模效应。其次是应改变当前单一依靠存贷款利差的盈利模式,大力发展中间收入,实现其盈利增长方式的转型。总之,本文从分析我国上市商业银行的发展现状以及发展背景入手,以商业银行财务绩效理论为基础,以近三年的财务数据为支架,对上市商业银行做了实证分析,最后得出结论,提出了完善和改进管理的建议。本文的创新之处在于：第一,将单因素指标分析与综合评价相结合,提高了评价的可靠性与可参考性。运用计量和统计的方法,并将大型国有银行与中小型股份制银行进行全面的比较,定量的分析我国上市商业银行的整体经营绩效水平。第二,在实践中针对因子分析法采用横截面数据分析的不足,我通过对2008-2010年14个样本上市商业银行的三年数据进行因子分析,对上市商业银行进行动态的对比分析,弥补了静态分析的不足。第三,现有效率研究一般侧重于实证方面,理论层面的分析不够。理论是实证检验的基础,没有理论根据的实证缺乏说服力,理论又是实证检验的补充,弥补了实证数据不可获得或者某些因素不可计量的缺陷,本文掌握了较为丰富的理论资料结合实证分析做出了深入探讨,这也可能构成了本文在方法和内容上的有价值的创新。第四,尝试对上市商业银行的未来财务绩效表现进行预测,本文运用技术手段,在运用因子分析法进行实证分析之后,建立了预测模型,以前3年的财务数据为解释变量,来预测未来1年的财务表现。当然本文还存在很多的不足之处,比如由于本人选取的数据大多来自于互联网,没有到所在银行查阅。同时,财务指标的选取也有一定的局限性,对影响经营业绩变量仅仅局限于财务指标本身,而一些对银行经营业绩产生重大影响的因素,比如国家宏观经济政策、国家产业政策等因素未纳入研究范围。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of reform and opening up and the development of the socialist market economy, the bank has initially established a relatively perfect modern corporate governance structure. At the same time, the reform of large state-owned commercial banks has made major breakthroughs - the Bank of communications, the Construction Bank, the Bank of China and the industrial and commercial bank to complete the share system reform, and the 1PO of the Agricultural Bank has also been successfully listed. Small and medium sized joint-stock commercial banks, such as China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank and Pufa Bank, also grew rapidly and grew up. According to the China Banking Development Report issued by the banking association in 2011, the bank financial institutions of China achieved 899 billion 200 million yuan after tax in 2010, up 34.5% in the year on year, and continued to maintain steady operation and rapid development in 2011. However, the trend of profit growth has slowed down. Thus, China's banking industry has developed rapidly and has a good growth trend. The commercial banks that have been listed in succession have become the mainstay of our capital market.
The development of the market economy provides a broad market and a large number of opportunities for the banking industry, and the rapid development of the banking industry provides strong support and financial guarantee for the good operation of the market economy. At the same time, the commercial banks, as the main body of our financial industry, not only affect the healthy development of the banking industry, but also their business performance and financial situation. It also affects the stable operation and good operation of the entire financial industry, and even has an important impact on China's economic operation.
With the gradual improvement and standardization of the financial market in China, more commercial banks are actively listed in the pursuit of their own development, and the equity financing has become a strong means to strengthen its strength. In the post financial crisis, in the period of the post financial crisis, facing the increasingly complex changes in the external operating environment and the intensification of the competition in the same industry, it has brought pressure to China's listed commercial banks and created opportunities for transformation in the face of China's implementation of the world trade agreement banking industry in a comprehensive and open environment. In order to adapt to the financial environment of fierce competition, enhance the operational efficiency of the listed commercial banks in China, resolve financial risks, obtain survival and accelerate the development, it is particularly important to analyze the financial performance of the listed commercial banks in China.
Based on this, I selected fourteen listed commercial banks which have been listed in succession. The fourteen listed commercial banks not only have strong capital strength, but also have good performance, which are relative to the whole banking industry in our country. Therefore, I analyze the financial performance of the listed commercial banks by analyzing the financial performance of the listed commercial banks. In order to find out the state and trend of the development of China's banking industry, through the statistical analysis of the financial statements of the listed commercial banks and the related financial data of the transaction, account balance and disclosure, the advantages and shortcomings of the banks are found out, so as to develop the advantages to overcome the shortcomings and provide valuable reference for the managers. With its competitive advantage, the competitiveness of the banking industry is improved.
In view of this, this paper, guided by the theory of financial performance analysis of modern commercial banks, combines the safety, liquidity and profit management principles of commercial banks, combines the normative research method and the empirical research method, summarizes the current situation of the listed commercial banks and the management theory of commercial banks, and analyzes the latest data of the listed commercial banks. The financial indicators are calculated, and the financial analysis index system of the listed commercial banks is constructed and perfected by mathematical modeling. The financial performance evaluation method is used to analyze the financial performance of the listed commercial banks, so as to improve the management suggestions from the financial angle and improve the competition of the banks. Measures of force.
This article is divided into six parts:
The first part, first of all, explains the purpose and background of this paper, summarizes the background of the great opportunities for the development of the banking industry as a whole, and then explains the meaning of the writing, that is, it is meaningful to the investors, managers and supervision of the law enforcement. Finally, the main contents of this paper, the research ideas and methods are summarized.
The second part summarizes the related literature, summarizes the related theories of financial performance analysis of listed commercial banks, that is, the financial performance theory of listed commercial banks, the financial index system theory of listed commercial banks and the theory of financial performance analysis method.
The third part makes a detailed summary of the current situation of the development of the listed commercial banks in China. First, the international environment and domestic environment of the listed commercial banks are expounded respectively. Then the formation process of the listed commercial bank system in China is summarized, and the development status of China's banking industry is described.
In the fourth part, the financial performance evaluation index system is constructed. The financial performance analysis system is constructed from four aspects, profitability analysis, security analysis, liquidity analysis and growth analysis, and a total of sixteen financial indicators are analyzed. The financial index data of the last three years of the listed commercial banks are made form form table respectively. Come out and see the operation in recent years from various figures.
The fifth part, based on the original data on the above four financial indicators, using factor analysis method, and using STATA software to establish the model, the overall financial situation of the listed commercial banks in China is obtained, and the factor analysis method is used to sort the main factors of the listed commercial banks and analyze the four factors of the listed commercial banks on the listed commercial banks. Performance and their advantages and disadvantages in their operation. Finally, the performance of the future financial performance of the listed commercial banks is predicted. It is believed that the future development of the large banks will not be shaken, and the future development of small and medium banks has potential. CITIC Bank.
The sixth part puts forward the suggestions to strengthen the financial management of the listed commercial banks. First of all, it is believed that the listed commercial banks in China should develop together. On the basis of the common progress, the listed commercial banks should develop the characteristics of the listed commercial banks. For example, China Merchants Bank should give full play to its service advantages, while the industrial bank should play its scale effect. Before relying solely on the profit margin of deposit and loan spreads, we should vigorously develop middle income and realize the transformation of its profit growth mode.
In a word, starting with the analysis of the current situation and development background of the listed commercial banks in China, based on the financial performance theory of commercial banks and the financial data of nearly three years as the support, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the listed commercial banks, and finally draws a conclusion, and puts forward some suggestions to improve and improve the management.
The innovation of this article lies in:
First, combining the single factor analysis and the comprehensive evaluation, the reliability and the reference of the evaluation are improved. By means of measurement and statistics, a comprehensive comparison of the large state-owned banks and small and medium sized joint-stock banks is carried out, and the overall performance level of the listed commercial banks in China is quantitatively analyzed.
Second, in practice, in view of the shortage of cross section data analysis by factor analysis method, I make a dynamic contrast analysis to the listed commercial banks through the factor analysis of the three year data of the listed commercial banks for 2008-2010 years and 14 samples, and make up for the shortage of static analysis.
Third, the existing efficiency research is generally focused on the empirical aspect, and the theoretical analysis is not enough. The theory is the basis of the empirical test, the empirical evidence is not convincing, the theory is the supplement of the empirical test, which makes up for the inaccessible data or the inmeasurable defects of some factors. This paper has mastered a more abundant theory. Combined with empirical analysis, the data have been deeply explored. This may also constitute a valuable innovation in the method and content of this article.
Fourth, try to predict the performance of the future financial performance of the listed commercial banks. In this paper, after using the technical means, the prediction model is established after the empirical analysis using the factor analysis method. The financial data of the previous 3 years are the explanatory variables to predict the financial statement of the next 1 years.
Of course, there are many shortcomings in this paper, for example, because most of the data I choose from the Internet are from the Internet and have not been consulted by the banks in which they are located, the selection of financial indicators also has some limitations. The factors that affect the operating performance variables are limited to the financial indicators themselves, and some of the factors that have a significant impact on the performance of the banks are due to the reasons. Such factors as national macroeconomic policies and national industrial policies are not included in the research area.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F830.42;F224

【参考文献】