基于Panel data的我国上市公司现金股利政策的研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 18:04

本文选题：股利政策 + 面板probit模型　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：上市公司的终极财务分配直接关系到公司价值的最大化,而股利政策的制定作为财务分配中的一个重要环节,亟需得到公司管理层和财务学者的高度重视。自上世纪六十年代美国财务学者Miller, M. H和经济学家Modigliani F.发表了题为《Dividend Policy, Growth and the Valuation of Shares》的文章以来,西方财务学者对以“MM股利无关论”为代表的古典股利理论开始了大量的拓展研究,提出了税差理论、信号传递理论、追随者效应理论、行为学理论等,并在理论的基础上运用各种方法对上市公司股利政策进行了实证研究。由于特殊的资本市场结构和法规制度,我国学者从上世纪九十年代才开始跟随西方前沿,结合我国的实际情况研究上市公司股利政策,并取得了一系列的研究成果。其中大部分研究都集中在上市公司股利政策市场效应上,且以规范性分析为主,实证研究较少。对于是什么因素决定上市公司是否分配股利,以及什么因素决定分配水平的问题上,采用的统计方法都较为简单,得到的结果也不甚相同。因此,笔者希望通过本文的研究,对这两个问题做更深层次的剖析。本文首先对近二十年来我国上市公司的股利分配情况作了统计性描述,并对统计结果进行了简要分析,发现我国上市公司股利政策主要表现为以下特征：实施股利分配的公司占所有上市公司的比例较小；现金股利分配的行业特征较明显；我国现金股利回报率非常小等。紧接着本文对股利政策的影响因素进行了理论分析,以此为根据在实证部分提出假设,并通过模型设置检验假设的合理性。研究是否分配股利采用面板probit模型,研究分配水平采用固定效应模型,分别用Stata软件进行了统计分析。最终得出的结论是：企业的盈利能力、资产负债率、企业规模以及第一大股东持股比例是影响公司是否发放现金股利的因素；每股收益、每股净资产、净资产收益率、流动比率、总资产周转率、每股留存收益、资产负债率、营业总收入同比增长率、流通股比例以及第一大股东持股比例是影响股利支付水平的主要因素。较以往研究股利政策的文献相比,本文最大的创新之处在于采用面板数据进行分析。面板数据相比于横截面数据有很多优点,根据对我国上市公司近二十年的股利政策情况统计,发现其是一个不断变化不断调整的动态过程,且各解释变量间可能存在共线性等。针对这些问题,考虑采用面板数据更为合适,得到的结果也更具可信性。本文的不足之处在于：选取的数据时间跨度较短,仅考虑了股权分置改革后上市公司的股利分配情况；只针对现金股利进行研究,没有研究股票股利等其他股利分配方式。
[Abstract]:The ultimate financial allocation of listed companies is directly related to the maximization of corporate value. As an important part of financial allocation, dividend policy formulation needs to be highly valued by management and financial scholars. Since the 1960s, American finance scholars Miller, M.H and economist Modigliani F. Since the publication of the article entitled "divide Policy, growth and the valuation of shares", Western financial scholars have begun a lot of extensive research on the classical dividend theory represented by "MM dividend independence theory", and put forward the tax difference theory and signal transmission theory. On the basis of the theory of follower effect and behavioral theory, this paper makes an empirical study on dividend policy of listed companies. Due to the special capital market structure and legal system, Chinese scholars began to follow the western frontier from the 1990s, combined with the actual situation of our country to study the dividend policy of listed companies, and obtained a series of research results. Most of the studies focus on the market effect of dividend policy of listed companies, and normative analysis is the main, empirical research is less. The statistical method is simple and the result is not the same as which factors determine whether or not the listed company distributes dividends and what factors determine the distribution level. Therefore, the author hopes to do a deeper analysis of these two problems through the study of this paper. This paper first gives a statistical description of the dividend distribution of listed companies in China in the past 20 years, and analyzes the statistical results briefly. It is found that the dividend policy of listed companies in China is characterized by the following characteristics: the proportion of all listed companies that implement dividend distribution is small; the industry characteristics of cash dividend distribution are obvious; the rate of return of cash dividend is very small in China. Then this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the influencing factors of dividend policy, based on which the hypothesis is put forward in the empirical part, and the rationality of the hypothesis is tested by setting the model. The panel probit model and the fixed effect model are used to study the distribution of dividends. The statistical analysis is carried out by Stata software. The final conclusions are as follows: the profitability of the company, the ratio of assets to liabilities, the size of the enterprise and the proportion of the largest shareholders are the factors that affect whether the company issues cash dividends, earnings per share, net assets per share, return on net assets, Current ratio, turnover ratio of total assets, retained earnings per share, asset-liability ratio, gross operating income growth rate, the ratio of circulating shares and the proportion of the largest shareholders are the main factors that affect the level of dividend payment. Compared with previous studies on dividend policy, the greatest innovation of this paper is the use of panel data for analysis. Compared with cross-section data, panel data has many advantages. According to the statistics of dividend policy of China's listed companies in the past 20 years, it is found that it is a dynamic process that is constantly changing and adjusting, and there may be a co-linearity between the various explanatory variables and so on. To solve these problems, it is more appropriate to consider using panel data, and the results are more reliable. The shortcoming of this paper is that the time span of the selected data is short, only the dividend distribution of listed companies after the split share structure reform is considered; only the cash dividend is studied, but other dividend distribution methods such as stock dividend are not studied.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

【参考文献】