国内一般物价水平上涨的结构性分析——兼论中国经济发生通胀的可能性

发布时间：2018-07-07 18:07

  本文选题：供给扰动 + 需求扰动　； 参考：《经济学动态》2010年10期

【摘要】：针对今年7、8月份以来国内CPI的连续走高,本文从宏观经济的总供给与总需求两个方面出发,分析中国经济由供给或需求扰动构成的通货膨胀风险,进而全面评估国内在短期与长期发生通货膨胀的可能性。本文认为,7、8月份的国内CPI上涨主要是因为自然灾害事件的短期影响。随着国内农业生产的恢复和房地产调控的政策推进,短期内的通货膨胀风险将会得到缓解。长期来看,供给侧的资源和要素价格上涨,以及需求侧的货币投放过多、投资效率低等因素,已经构成未来的通货膨胀风险。为防范恶性通货膨胀的发生,本文建议目前的宏观经济政策应该进行多方面调整。
[Abstract]:In view of the domestic CPI rising continuously since July and August this year, this paper analyzes the inflation risk of China's economy caused by supply or demand disturbance from the two aspects of macroeconomic aggregate supply and total demand. And then comprehensively assess the possibility of inflation in the short-term and long-term. This paper argues that the rise of CPI in August is mainly due to the short-term impact of natural disasters. With the recovery of domestic agricultural production and the promotion of real estate regulation, the risk of inflation will be alleviated in the short term. In the long run, the rising price of resources and factors on the supply side, too much money on the demand side and the low investment efficiency have already constituted the inflation risk in the future. In order to prevent hyperinflation, this paper suggests that the current macroeconomic policy should be adjusted in many ways.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“证券投资基金运行与资本市场稳定研究”(编号:07JA790032)的阶段性成果之一
【分类号】：F726;F822.5
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本文编号：2105804