中美货币政策协调性的理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 08:25

【摘要】：本文构建理论模型论证了国际货币政策协调有利于减少各国福利损失,说明了货币政策协调的必要性,而后以中美两国利率政策为例,实证分析了次贷危机前后中美货币政策的联动性。结果表明,中美利率之间存在显著的波动溢出效应;美国利率上升和下降对中美利率协动性的影响具有非对称效应;次贷危机发生以后中美利率联动程度加大,体现出危机后国际货币政策协调性的加强。中美作为世界上有重要影响力的两个国家,其货币政策具有全球意义,因此应加强两国货币政策协调的长效机制,这对于确保全球经济稳步复苏和健康运行有着极为重要的意义。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a theoretical model to prove that the coordination of international monetary policy is conducive to reducing the welfare losses of various countries, and explains the necessity of coordination of monetary policy, and then takes the interest rate policy of China and the United States as an example. The paper empirically analyzes the linkage of monetary policy between China and the United States before and after the subprime mortgage crisis. The results show that there are significant volatility spillover effects between Chinese and American interest rates, asymmetric effects of the rise and fall of interest rates in the United States on the interest rate coactivity between China and the United States, and the increasing degree of interest rate linkage between China and the United States after the subprime mortgage crisis. It reflects the strengthening of the coordination of international monetary policy after the crisis. As two countries with important influence in the world, China and the United States have global significance in their monetary policy, so we should strengthen the long-term mechanism of monetary policy coordination between the two countries. This is extremely important to ensure the steady recovery and healthy functioning of the global economy.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国金融监管的制度框架、制衡机制与绩效评价研究”(09AZD020) 教育部应急项目“国际金融危机应对研究”(2009JYJR058)
【分类号】：F822.0;F827.12

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