实际有效汇率变动影响山东出口贸易结构研究
发布时间：2018-07-26 14:18
【摘要】：汇率是国际贸易中重要的调节杠杆，汇率的变动会通过价格机制的作用影响一国的出口贸易。实际有效汇率是在名义有效汇率的基础上剔除通货膨胀因素得到的，它能够真实的反应一国货币的实际竞争力。 随着中国经济的发展和国际地位的不断提高，人民币的国际竞争力逐渐增强。近年来人民币持续升值，这给中国的出口贸易既带来了挑战也带来了机遇。山东省是一个的开放的经济大省，出口贸易在该省经济总量中一直占有十分重要的比重。在这样的大背景下来研究实际有效汇率变动对山东出口贸易结构的影响是具有实际意义的。 本文通过规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法，研究实际有效汇率变动对山东出口贸易结构的影响。首先介绍了汇率变动影响国际贸易的相关理论和传导机制，然后对人民币的演变过程和山东出口贸易的现状进行分析。在实证分析部分，通过向量自回归进行协整分析，对人民币实际有效汇率变动与山东省出口贸易额和出口贸易结构的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明，人民币实际有效汇率的上升对山东省出口贸易额和出口贸易结构都有优化的作用。 在实证结果的基础上，，山东省要在人民币升值的趋势下优化出口贸易结构，就必须加大科研投入，提高自主创新能力，不断提升出口产品的技术含量和附加值，打造自主品牌，提高山东出口产品的竞争力，从而推动山东出口贸易结构的升级。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important regulating lever in international trade. The change of exchange rate will affect a country's export trade through the function of price mechanism. The real effective exchange rate is based on the nominal effective exchange rate, which can reflect the real competitiveness of a country's currency. With the development of China's economy and the improvement of its international status, the international competitiveness of RMB is gradually strengthened. The renminbi's continued appreciation in recent years has brought both challenges and opportunities to China's export trade. Shandong Province is an open economic province, export trade has always occupied a very important proportion in the total economic volume of the province. Under this background, it is of practical significance to study the effect of the real effective exchange rate on Shandong export trade structure. Through the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on Shandong export trade structure. This paper first introduces the theory and transmission mechanism of the influence of exchange rate change on international trade, then analyzes the evolution of RMB and the current situation of Shandong export trade. In the part of empirical analysis, through vector autoregressive cointegration analysis, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and export trade volume and export trade structure of Shandong Province is analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the rise of the real effective exchange rate of RMB plays an important role in optimizing the export trade volume and the export trade structure of Shandong Province. On the basis of empirical results, in order to optimize the structure of export trade under the trend of RMB appreciation, Shandong Province must increase scientific research investment, improve the ability of independent innovation, continuously enhance the technical content and added value of export products, and build its own brand. Improve the competitiveness of Shandong export products, so as to promote the upgrading of Shandong export trade structure.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6;F224
本文编号：2146285
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important regulating lever in international trade. The change of exchange rate will affect a country's export trade through the function of price mechanism. The real effective exchange rate is based on the nominal effective exchange rate, which can reflect the real competitiveness of a country's currency. With the development of China's economy and the improvement of its international status, the international competitiveness of RMB is gradually strengthened. The renminbi's continued appreciation in recent years has brought both challenges and opportunities to China's export trade. Shandong Province is an open economic province, export trade has always occupied a very important proportion in the total economic volume of the province. Under this background, it is of practical significance to study the effect of the real effective exchange rate on Shandong export trade structure. Through the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on Shandong export trade structure. This paper first introduces the theory and transmission mechanism of the influence of exchange rate change on international trade, then analyzes the evolution of RMB and the current situation of Shandong export trade. In the part of empirical analysis, through vector autoregressive cointegration analysis, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and export trade volume and export trade structure of Shandong Province is analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the rise of the real effective exchange rate of RMB plays an important role in optimizing the export trade volume and the export trade structure of Shandong Province. On the basis of empirical results, in order to optimize the structure of export trade under the trend of RMB appreciation, Shandong Province must increase scientific research investment, improve the ability of independent innovation, continuously enhance the technical content and added value of export products, and build its own brand. Improve the competitiveness of Shandong export products, so as to promote the upgrading of Shandong export trade structure.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6;F224
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 金文艳;人民币汇率升值对河北省出口贸易影响的实证研究[D];河北经贸大学;2013年
本文编号：2146285
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/huobilw/2146285.html
