人民币升值对浙江省经济增长影响实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-28 06:40

【摘要】：在世界经济全球化，一体化，自由化的发展趋势下，世界各国大力推进国际金融经济政策，而汇率制度作为一国最重要经济制度，对经济发展起着重要的作用。汇率的过度上升会给一国或地区经济增长带来影响。在中国汇率制度改革对来，人民币不断上升。人民币汇率的升值会对浙江省的经济增长造成什么样的影响？因此本文就人民升值与浙江省经济增长影响进行实证分析。最终得到如下研究结论：（1）人民币汇率改革以来，人民币汇率首先在1985-1994年不断贬值，但从1994年我国实行人民币汇率并轨制度，，人民币对美元还是港币的汇率都呈现上升，人民币升值压力越来越大；浙江省居民消费者价格指数、商品零售价格指数以及工业品出厂价格指数基本呈现出上升趋势。另外，浙江省进出口贸易总额、外商直接投资不断扩大，但是两者都在地区和行业方面分布不均，如出口主要以劳动密集型产品为主，外商直接投资主要流向传统制造业。（2）通过协整分析、格兰杰因果、脉冲响应、误差修正等分析发现，人民币升值与浙江省经济增长之间存在长期的协整关系，长期来看不利于浙江省经济增长，且这种影响程度逐步增加，但短期内人民币升值有利于浙江省经济增长。（3）从人民币升值对浙江省经济增长的作用机理来看：人民币升值对浙江省内商品价格水平、外商直接投资、进出口贸易产生显著的影响，进而影响浙江省经济增长，具体表现在人民币升值促进浙江省商品价格的上升；人民币升值对浙江省进出口贸易产生负向作用，且在1%的水平下显著；人民币实际汇率在1%的水平下对浙江省外商直接投资产生负面影响，表明了外商直接投资在浙江省主要是以成本导向型为主，人民币的升值导致外商直接投资企业的相对生产成本上升，进而减少成本导向型外商直接投资。
[Abstract]:Under the trend of globalization, integration and liberalization of the world economy, countries all over the world vigorously promote the international financial and economic policies, and the exchange rate system, as the most important economic system of a country, plays an important role in the economic development. Excessive appreciation of the exchange rate will have an impact on the economic growth of a country or region. In China's exchange rate regime reform, the RMB continues to rise. What impact will the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate have on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province? Therefore, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of people's appreciation and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. Finally, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) since the reform of RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate has first depreciated from 1985 to 1994, but since 1994, China has implemented the RMB exchange rate system. The RMB rose against both the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar, with increasing pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, while the consumer price index, retail price index and factory price index of industrial products in Zhejiang Province showed a basic upward trend. In addition, the total volume of import and export trade in Zhejiang Province and foreign direct investment continue to expand, but both are unevenly distributed in regions and industries. For example, exports are mainly labor-intensive products. FDI mainly flows to traditional manufacturing industries. (2) through the analysis of cointegration analysis, Granger causality, impulse response and error correction, it is found that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between RMB appreciation and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. In the long run, it is not conducive to economic growth in Zhejiang Province, and the degree of this influence is gradually increasing. But the appreciation of RMB in the short term is beneficial to the economic growth of Zhejiang Province. (3) judging from the mechanism of RMB appreciation on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province, the appreciation of RMB affects the commodity price level and foreign direct investment in Zhejiang Province. Import and export trade has a significant impact on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province, which is manifested in the appreciation of RMB and the rise of commodity prices in Zhejiang Province; the appreciation of RMB has a negative effect on the import and export trade of Zhejiang Province. At the level of 1%, the real exchange rate of RMB has a negative impact on FDI in Zhejiang Province, which indicates that the FDI in Zhejiang Province is mainly cost oriented. The appreciation of RMB leads to the increase of relative production cost of foreign direct investment enterprises and the reduction of cost-oriented foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F127;F832.6

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