中国资本项目开放的相关问题研究
发布时间：2018-07-31 17:02
【摘要】：随着经济全球化与金融自由化的深入发展,资本在全球范围的流动一直是国际社会与经济学界最为关注并广泛探讨的问题之一。欧债危机对区域及全球经济造成的冲击尚未得到完全有效的控制,美国等发达国家的量化宽松政策所导致的流动性过剩问题给新兴市场国家带来严峻挑战。面对当前特殊的国际经济环境,我国在推进资本项目开放时必须更加谨慎,在享受国际资本带来的各种利益的同时最大限度地降低资本流动对我国经济金融稳定可能产生的冲击。 本文以最新国际经济金融形势作为分析背景,以国际经济学、国际金融学相关理论为指导,采用理论分析、比较分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法,探讨的核心问题是在当前形势下如何采取有效措施与合理的制度安排保证我国资本项目开放进程的顺利进行。本文首先对与资本流动和资本项目开放相关的理论概念作出了简要介绍,包括资本项目开放的内涵、条件、路径、次序步骤安排及“三元悖论”理论等。随后通过对亚洲地区部分典型国家及主要新兴市场经济体的资本项目开放历程进行回顾,总结出了可供参考的国际经验教训,为我国资本项目开放进程中的路径选择、次序步骤安排及配套措施的实施提供有益借鉴。在对我国自1996年起采取的推动资本项目开放的主要政策措施进行简要回顾之后,重点分析了当前我国资本项目中直接投资、证券投资及其它投资的现状和特点,明确了我国现阶段的资本项目开放程度仍处于国际平均水平以下,亟待进一步开放。对现阶段我国开放资本项目所面临的国际收支失衡风险、宏观经济不稳定风险、金融体系不稳定风险及“三元悖论”风险等主要风险作出明确判断,认为这些风险基本处于可控范围内。同时结合当前国内外环境与改革开放相关经验,认为我国的资本项目开放进程应采取渐进式的开放模式,提出了资本项目开放的内外部次序安排及短、中、长期步骤安排,在开放的同时强调相关配套措施的实施,包括宏观审慎政策、利率市场化与汇率形成机制改革、完善监管与预警机制、加强国际经验交流与政策协调等。
[Abstract]:With the further development of economic globalization and financial liberalization, the flow of capital in the global scope has been one of the most concerned and widely discussed issues in international society and economic circles. The impact of the European debt crisis on the regional and global economies has not yet been fully contained, and the liquidity overhang caused by quantitative easing in developed countries such as the United States poses serious challenges to emerging market countries. In the face of the current special international economic environment, China must be more cautious in promoting the opening of its capital account. While enjoying all kinds of benefits brought by international capital, the impact of capital flow on China's economic and financial stability can be minimized at the same time. This article takes the latest international economic and financial situation as the analysis background, with the international economics, the international finance correlation theory as the instruction, uses the theory analysis, the comparison analysis and the demonstration analysis unifies the research method, The core problem is how to take effective measures and reasonable institutional arrangements to ensure the smooth progress of the capital account opening process under the current situation. In this paper, the theoretical concepts related to capital flow and capital account opening are introduced briefly, including the connotation, conditions, path, order and step arrangement of capital account opening and the theory of "ternary paradox". Then, by reviewing the opening process of capital account in some typical countries and major emerging market economies in Asia, the paper sums up the international experience and lessons for reference, which is the path choice in the process of capital account opening in China. The arrangement of sequence steps and the implementation of supporting measures provide useful reference. After a brief review of the main policies and measures adopted by China since 1996 to promote the opening of capital accounts, the paper focuses on the analysis of the current situation and characteristics of direct investment, securities investment and other investments in capital accounts in China. It is clear that the degree of capital account opening in China is still below the international average level, and it needs to be further opened. This paper makes a clear judgment on the main risks, such as the risk of imbalance of balance of payments, the risk of macroeconomic instability, the risk of instability of the financial system and the risk of "ternary paradox" faced by China's opening capital account at the present stage. These risks are considered to be basically within the range of control. At the same time, combined with the current domestic and foreign environment and relevant experience of reform and opening up, the author thinks that the capital account opening process of our country should adopt the gradual opening mode, and puts forward the internal and external order arrangement and short, medium and long-term steps arrangement of capital account opening. At the same time, it emphasizes the implementation of relevant supporting measures, including macro-prudential policy, reform of interest rate marketization and exchange rate formation mechanism, perfection of supervision and early warning mechanism, strengthening of international experience exchange and policy coordination, etc.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2156250
[Abstract]:With the further development of economic globalization and financial liberalization, the flow of capital in the global scope has been one of the most concerned and widely discussed issues in international society and economic circles. The impact of the European debt crisis on the regional and global economies has not yet been fully contained, and the liquidity overhang caused by quantitative easing in developed countries such as the United States poses serious challenges to emerging market countries. In the face of the current special international economic environment, China must be more cautious in promoting the opening of its capital account. While enjoying all kinds of benefits brought by international capital, the impact of capital flow on China's economic and financial stability can be minimized at the same time. This article takes the latest international economic and financial situation as the analysis background, with the international economics, the international finance correlation theory as the instruction, uses the theory analysis, the comparison analysis and the demonstration analysis unifies the research method, The core problem is how to take effective measures and reasonable institutional arrangements to ensure the smooth progress of the capital account opening process under the current situation. In this paper, the theoretical concepts related to capital flow and capital account opening are introduced briefly, including the connotation, conditions, path, order and step arrangement of capital account opening and the theory of "ternary paradox". Then, by reviewing the opening process of capital account in some typical countries and major emerging market economies in Asia, the paper sums up the international experience and lessons for reference, which is the path choice in the process of capital account opening in China. The arrangement of sequence steps and the implementation of supporting measures provide useful reference. After a brief review of the main policies and measures adopted by China since 1996 to promote the opening of capital accounts, the paper focuses on the analysis of the current situation and characteristics of direct investment, securities investment and other investments in capital accounts in China. It is clear that the degree of capital account opening in China is still below the international average level, and it needs to be further opened. This paper makes a clear judgment on the main risks, such as the risk of imbalance of balance of payments, the risk of macroeconomic instability, the risk of instability of the financial system and the risk of "ternary paradox" faced by China's opening capital account at the present stage. These risks are considered to be basically within the range of control. At the same time, combined with the current domestic and foreign environment and relevant experience of reform and opening up, the author thinks that the capital account opening process of our country should adopt the gradual opening mode, and puts forward the internal and external order arrangement and short, medium and long-term steps arrangement of capital account opening. At the same time, it emphasizes the implementation of relevant supporting measures, including macro-prudential policy, reform of interest rate marketization and exchange rate formation mechanism, perfection of supervision and early warning mechanism, strengthening of international experience exchange and policy coordination, etc.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6
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