我国外汇储备增长对物价水平的影响研究
[Abstract]:With China's economic growth, China's balance of payments has been running a double surplus, resulting in more and more foreign exchange reserves. In February 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded Japan's and became the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. In this way, a large number of foreign exchange accounts have been formed. The generation of foreign exchange accounts will make the central bank passively increase the investment of basic money. If the central bank does not take any sterilization measures, it will lead to the increase of the total money supply of the society and eventually lead to the rise of prices. In view of the excessive foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, the central bank will implement corresponding intervention measures in order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate. By reviewing the foreign exchange sterilization measures adopted by the central bank over the years and analyzing the implementation of the foreign exchange sterilization measures, it is found that the foreign exchange sterilization measures in China can not completely offset the foreign exchange occupation. Excess liquidity caused by foreign exchange sterilization measures in the short term effective, but in the long term sterilization effect is very small, and even will have a certain negative effect on the economy.
On the other hand, China's price level is also showing a trend of constant fluctuation after the reform and opening up. Especially in recent years, the price has risen sharply and inflationary pressures have appeared. The fluctuation of price level not only affects the daily life of residents, but also affects all aspects of enterprises and social economy, thus affecting the economy of China. The stable development of prices is not only the focus of every resident after dinner, but also an important goal of national macro-control.
Under the background of the sharp increase of foreign exchange reserve, whether the fluctuation of price level is related to the increase of foreign exchange reserve, what kind of relationship exists between them, or how big the relationship is, etc. are particularly worth paying attention to. Relevant theories: money supply theory, inflation theory and foreign exchange write-off theory, select the quarterly data from 2001 to 2011, through co-integration analysis, error correction model and impulse response function empirical analysis, and finally come to a conclusion. With the increase of foreign exchange reserve, the central bank will adopt a corresponding monetary sterilization policy to intervene in the passive increase of money supply caused by the increase of foreign exchange. The change of money supply does not necessarily lead to the change of interest rate. Because the interest rate has not been fully marketized and the capital account has not been fully opened up, the transmission mechanism between interest rate and capital account is hindered. Yes, in the long run, because of the limitation of the central bank's hedging space and the negative effect of hedging tools, it is impossible for the central bank to hedge the increase of the base currency caused by the increase of foreign exchange reserves completely. Corresponding changes.
Finally, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the effective implementation of China's huge foreign exchange reserves and sterilization measures. First, deepen the reform of foreign exchange management system, including perfecting the system of willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange, relaxing the management of foreign exchange accounts; establish a flexible exchange rate mechanism to gradually relax the scope of exchange rate fluctuations; second, adopt comprehensive measures. Joint measures to balance the balance of international payments include promoting the import of high-tech equipment, changing the types of import and export commodities, paying attention to the introduction of foreign capital, guiding enterprises to "go out" and combining "import" with "go out": preventing large-scale hot money in and out, improving foreign exchange management policies; making scientific and rational use of foreign exchange reserves, and bringing foreign exchange reserves into full play. Finally, we should improve the foreign exchange sterilization measures, including promoting the full marketization of interest rates, ensuring the smooth transmission of monetary policy, innovating financial instruments, enriching the diversification of sterilization means, strengthening the construction of open markets and strengthening the coordination and use of monetary and fiscal policies.
【学位授予单位】:西南大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:F832.6;F726
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