我国外汇储备增长对物价水平的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 08:52

【摘要】：随着我国经济的增长,我国国际收支连续出现双顺差,导致外汇储备越来越多。2006年2月,我国外汇储备超过日本,成为全球持有外汇储备最多的国家。外汇储备的增加,导致外汇市场上外汇供给大于外汇需求。为了维护汇率的稳定,中央银行会大量投放本币买入外汇。这样一来,形成了大量的外汇占款。外汇占款的产生会使央行被动增加基础货币投放,如果中央银行不采取任何冲销措施,那么会导致社会总货币供应量的增加,最终引起物价的上涨。由于我国实行的是有管理的浮动汇率制度,针对外汇市场上过多的外汇,央行会为了维持汇率的稳定,实施相应的干预措施。通过回顾历年我国中央银行采取的外汇冲销措施,分析其外汇冲销措施的实施情况,发现我国外汇冲销措施不能完全对冲因外汇占款引起的流动性过剩,外汇冲销措施在短期内有效,但长期内冲销作用很小,甚至会对经济产生一定的负效应。另一方面,我国物价水平也在改革开放后呈现不断波动的趋势。特别是最近儿年,物价上涨幅度较大,已经出现通货膨胀的压力。物价水平的波动不仅影响了居民的日常生活,而且还波及到企业及社会经济的各个方面,从而影响我国经济的平稳发展。物价的稳定不仅是每位居民茶余饭后关注的热点,而且也是国家宏观调控的重要目标。那么,在外汇储备剧增的背景下,物价水平的波动是否与外汇储备增加有关,二者存在怎样的关系,或者关系有多大等这些问题就尤其值得关注。因此,针对外汇储备的增加与物价水平的波动关系,本文运用理论与实证分析的方法,借鉴了相关理论：货币供给理论、通货膨胀理论和外汇冲销理论,选取2001年—2011年的季度数据,通过协整分析、误差修止模型和脉冲响应函数的实证分析最终得出结论。在短期内,外汇储备的变动与物价波动之间的关系不显著。这主要是因为随着外汇储备的增加,央行会相应的采取货币冲销政策来干预因外汇占款增加而导致的货币供应量的被动增加。另外,金融制度改革不够彻底,资本市场不够完善导致外汇储备、货币供给、物价波动与利率波动之间的反馈渠道受堵。同时,货币投放的变化不一定引起利率变化。因为我国利率还没有实现完全意义上的市场化,资本项目也没有完全开放,因而利率与资本项目之间的传导机制受阻。另外,我国汇率的波动也在一定程度上削弱了外汇储备对通货膨胀的影响。但是,在长期内,因为央行对冲操作空间的有限性和对冲工具运用带来的负效应,央行不可能对因外汇储备增加所导致的基础货币的增加进行完全对冲。因此,在外汇冲销措施无效的情况下,物价水平的波动会因为外汇储备的增加而产生相应的变化。最后,本文针对当前我国巨额的外汇储备和外汇冲销措施的有效实施提出了相应的政策建议。一是深化外汇管理体制改革,包括完善意愿结售汇制度,放宽外汇账户管理；建立灵活的汇率机制,将汇率浮动的范围逐步放宽；二是采取综合措施平衡国际收支,包括促进高新技术设备进口,改变进出口商品种类,注重引进外资,并引导企业“走出去”,把“引进来”与“走出去”相结合：防范热钱大规模进出,完善外汇管理政策；科学合理运用外汇储备,发挥外汇储备对经济的积极作用。最后完善外汇冲销措施,包括推进利率全面市场化,保证货币政策的顺利传导；创新金融工具,丰富冲销手段的多样化,加强公开市场建设和加强货币政策和财政政策的协调搭配使用。
[Abstract]:With China's economic growth, China's balance of payments has been running a double surplus, resulting in more and more foreign exchange reserves. In February 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded Japan's and became the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. In this way, a large number of foreign exchange accounts have been formed. The generation of foreign exchange accounts will make the central bank passively increase the investment of basic money. If the central bank does not take any sterilization measures, it will lead to the increase of the total money supply of the society and eventually lead to the rise of prices. In view of the excessive foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, the central bank will implement corresponding intervention measures in order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate. By reviewing the foreign exchange sterilization measures adopted by the central bank over the years and analyzing the implementation of the foreign exchange sterilization measures, it is found that the foreign exchange sterilization measures in China can not completely offset the foreign exchange occupation. Excess liquidity caused by foreign exchange sterilization measures in the short term effective, but in the long term sterilization effect is very small, and even will have a certain negative effect on the economy.
On the other hand, China's price level is also showing a trend of constant fluctuation after the reform and opening up. Especially in recent years, the price has risen sharply and inflationary pressures have appeared. The fluctuation of price level not only affects the daily life of residents, but also affects all aspects of enterprises and social economy, thus affecting the economy of China. The stable development of prices is not only the focus of every resident after dinner, but also an important goal of national macro-control.
Under the background of the sharp increase of foreign exchange reserve, whether the fluctuation of price level is related to the increase of foreign exchange reserve, what kind of relationship exists between them, or how big the relationship is, etc. are particularly worth paying attention to. Relevant theories: money supply theory, inflation theory and foreign exchange write-off theory, select the quarterly data from 2001 to 2011, through co-integration analysis, error correction model and impulse response function empirical analysis, and finally come to a conclusion. With the increase of foreign exchange reserve, the central bank will adopt a corresponding monetary sterilization policy to intervene in the passive increase of money supply caused by the increase of foreign exchange. The change of money supply does not necessarily lead to the change of interest rate. Because the interest rate has not been fully marketized and the capital account has not been fully opened up, the transmission mechanism between interest rate and capital account is hindered. Yes, in the long run, because of the limitation of the central bank's hedging space and the negative effect of hedging tools, it is impossible for the central bank to hedge the increase of the base currency caused by the increase of foreign exchange reserves completely. Corresponding changes.
Finally, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the effective implementation of China's huge foreign exchange reserves and sterilization measures. First, deepen the reform of foreign exchange management system, including perfecting the system of willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange, relaxing the management of foreign exchange accounts; establish a flexible exchange rate mechanism to gradually relax the scope of exchange rate fluctuations; second, adopt comprehensive measures. Joint measures to balance the balance of international payments include promoting the import of high-tech equipment, changing the types of import and export commodities, paying attention to the introduction of foreign capital, guiding enterprises to "go out" and combining "import" with "go out": preventing large-scale hot money in and out, improving foreign exchange management policies; making scientific and rational use of foreign exchange reserves, and bringing foreign exchange reserves into full play. Finally, we should improve the foreign exchange sterilization measures, including promoting the full marketization of interest rates, ensuring the smooth transmission of monetary policy, innovating financial instruments, enriching the diversification of sterilization means, strengthening the construction of open markets and strengthening the coordination and use of monetary and fiscal policies.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F726

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