非金融类融资租赁企业风险分析与防范

发布时间：2018-08-21 12:18

【摘要】：随着我国融资租赁行业步入发展的春天，非金融类融资租赁企业的发展规模和市场份额正在逐步提升。在业务快速扩张的同时，非金融类融资租赁企业的风险管理方面存在的问题也在逐步显现。本文通过对非金融类融资租赁企业所面临的风险进行深入的挖掘后，筛选出了一系列指标构成适合于该类企业的风险预警体系，通过这一体系，可以达到随时监控该类企业所面临风险是否出现异常的目的。同时，本文对该类企业面临的两类主要风险——利率风险、信用风险进行了实证分析。对于利率风险，主要依据持续期缺口理论来对样本企业的资产、负债头寸进行持续期计算，以得到利率变化1%时对样本企业净资产确切的影响大小，本文对远东宏信的持续期缺口进行计算，，最后发现当利率上升1%时，该企业的净资产减少0.38亿美元。对于信用风险，本文通过Logistic模型对样本企业的9种财务指标进行回归分析，最终得到承租企业下一年度发生违约的概率与承租企业的偿债能力（流动资产占总资产的比率）、经营能力（应收账款）和现金流量（经营现金流量净额占总负债的比率）相关的结论。通过对利率风险和信用风险的实证分析，为非金融类融资租赁企业进行这两种风险的管理提供了定量分析的方法，让该类企业的风险管理从定性提升到定量的水平，也为该类企业决定是否采取风险处置措施或者采取哪种类型的风险处置措施提供了参考依据。本文最后为非金融类融资租赁企业提供了风险防范的方法，包括通过筛选出一系列指标，建立一套风险预警体系风险分散策略并通过计算各个指标变量的功效系数来得到一个综合的风险评价指标，该指标可以对该类企业的风险作出定量的评价。针对非金融类融资租赁企业所面临的各个具体风险，本文提出了风险分散、风险转移以及资产证券化方法予以应对。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's financial leasing industry, the scale and market share of non-financial leasing enterprises are gradually increasing. With the rapid expansion of business, the risk management problems of non-financial leasing enterprises are gradually emerging. After digging into the risks faced by non-financial leasing enterprises, this paper selects a series of indicators to form a risk warning system suitable for this kind of enterprises. Can achieve the purpose of monitoring the risks faced by this kind of enterprises at any time. At the same time, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the interest rate risk and credit risk faced by this kind of enterprises. For interest rate risk, the duration of the assets and liability positions of the sample enterprises is calculated according to the theory of duration gap, so as to obtain the exact influence of the change of interest rate on the net assets of the sample enterprises. This paper calculates the duration gap of far East Acer and finally finds that when interest rates rise by 1, the company's net worth is reduced by $38 million. For credit risk, this paper carries on regression analysis to 9 kinds of financial index of sample enterprise by Logistic model. Finally, we get the probability of defaulting in the next year of the leased enterprise and the solvency of the leased enterprise (the ratio of current assets to total assets), the ability to operate (accounts receivable) and the cash flow (net operating cash flow as a percentage of total liabilities). Ratio of) to the relevant conclusions. Through the empirical analysis of interest rate risk and credit risk, this paper provides a quantitative analysis method for non-financial leasing enterprises to manage these two kinds of risks, so that the risk management of this kind of enterprises can be promoted from qualitative to quantitative level. It also provides a reference for this kind of enterprises to decide whether to take risk disposal measures or what kind of risk disposal measures to take. Finally, this paper provides a risk prevention method for non-financial leasing enterprises, including screening a series of indicators, A set of risk dispersal strategy of risk early warning system is established and a comprehensive risk evaluation index is obtained by calculating the efficacy coefficient of each index variable. This index can quantitatively evaluate the risk of this kind of enterprise. Aiming at the specific risks faced by non-financial leasing enterprises, this paper puts forward the methods of risk dispersion, risk transfer and asset securitization.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.49;F224

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