人民币汇率变动与我国商品出口贸易结构研究
发布时间：2018-08-23 09:32
【摘要】：在过去的30年里,中国的出口商品结构在出口商品种类和出口商品数量方面有很大的提高。建国初期,我国主要以出口资源型的初级产品为主,到了20世纪90年代,中国的出口商品中已有74.4%的工业制成品,进入21世纪以后,中国的出口商品品种和数量都不断增加。机电产品和高新技术产品等资本技术密集型商品的比重逐渐增加。在经历了2008年的世界性危机后,我国的出口商品将面临一次更艰难的考验。在过去的几十年里,稳定的汇率政策是中国出口商品的重要保护伞。在这段时间里,中国的出口商品结构实现了从资源密集型向劳动密集型商品的转变,2003年又实现了劳动密集型向资本技术密集型转变。本文的实证分析结果显示,人民币汇率变动对劳动密集型的产品有负相关性,人民币升值一定会使以服装及其附件、鞋类、家具及其零件、汽车零件、塑料制品为代表的劳动密集型商品商品出口额呈递减的趋势下降。人民币汇率变动对资本技术密集型商品的作用效果不显著。通过人民币汇率变动对出口商品结构的间接影响分析,本文认为汇率变动增加了出口商品制造业的长期成本,汇率的大幅度升值必然减少我国出口商品的种类和数量。大量的优质企业以及外资企业可能会通过跨国转移来降低成本上涨的压力。这对中国出口商品制造业将构成致命的打击。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years, the structure of China's exports has greatly improved in terms of types and quantity of exports. At the beginning of the founding of the people's Republic of China, the primary products of resource type were mainly exported in China. By the 1990s, 74.4% of China's manufactured products had been exported. After entering the 21st century, the variety and quantity of China's export commodities were increasing. The proportion of capital-technology intensive commodities such as mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products has gradually increased. After the world crisis in 2008, China's exports will face a more difficult test. A stable exchange rate policy has been an important umbrella for China's exports over the past few decades. During this period, China's export commodity structure changed from resource-intensive to labor-intensive, and in 2003, labor-intensive to capital-technology-intensive. The empirical results of this paper show that RMB exchange rate changes have negative correlation with labor-intensive products, and RMB appreciation will definitely result in clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture and its parts, auto parts, etc. Plastic products for the representative of labor-intensive commodity exports decreased. The effect of RMB exchange rate change on capital-technology intensive commodities is not significant. Based on the analysis of the indirect influence of RMB exchange rate change on the structure of export commodities, this paper holds that the exchange rate change increases the long-term cost of the manufacturing industry of export commodities, and the large appreciation of the exchange rate will inevitably reduce the types and quantity of Chinese export commodities. A large number of high-quality and foreign companies may shift across borders to reduce the pressure of rising costs. This will be a fatal blow to China's export manufacturing industry.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62;F224
本文编号：2198636
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years, the structure of China's exports has greatly improved in terms of types and quantity of exports. At the beginning of the founding of the people's Republic of China, the primary products of resource type were mainly exported in China. By the 1990s, 74.4% of China's manufactured products had been exported. After entering the 21st century, the variety and quantity of China's export commodities were increasing. The proportion of capital-technology intensive commodities such as mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products has gradually increased. After the world crisis in 2008, China's exports will face a more difficult test. A stable exchange rate policy has been an important umbrella for China's exports over the past few decades. During this period, China's export commodity structure changed from resource-intensive to labor-intensive, and in 2003, labor-intensive to capital-technology-intensive. The empirical results of this paper show that RMB exchange rate changes have negative correlation with labor-intensive products, and RMB appreciation will definitely result in clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture and its parts, auto parts, etc. Plastic products for the representative of labor-intensive commodity exports decreased. The effect of RMB exchange rate change on capital-technology intensive commodities is not significant. Based on the analysis of the indirect influence of RMB exchange rate change on the structure of export commodities, this paper holds that the exchange rate change increases the long-term cost of the manufacturing industry of export commodities, and the large appreciation of the exchange rate will inevitably reduce the types and quantity of Chinese export commodities. A large number of high-quality and foreign companies may shift across borders to reduce the pressure of rising costs. This will be a fatal blow to China's export manufacturing industry.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62;F224
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 赵tq;;人民币汇率变动促进我国进出口企业发展的正向拨动[J];财经界(学术版);2013年13期
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 马萍萍;汇率变动对我国工业制成品出口结构的影响研究[D];西北大学;2013年
，本文编号：2198636
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