我国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中作用的实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-28 14:42
【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国房地产市场经历了从无到有,从小到大的发展历程。尤其是近十年来房地产业快速发展,在国民经济中的比重不断提升,已经成为推动我国经济发展的重要因素之一。房地产市场的发展和深化完善了我国货币政策的资产价格传导机制,弥补了股票市场作为主要资产价格传导途径的不足,扩大了货币政策调控实体经济的范围,但货币政策传导机制随着传导途径的拓宽和传导主体的增加变得更加复杂,货币当局在实施货币政策对宏观经济进行调控时的难度也会随之加大。美国次贷危机的爆发使得全世界各方面尤其是货币当局重新考虑货币政策、房地产市场以及实体经济之间的关系。因此,本文通过实证方法来研究我国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用,并针对我国货币政策房地产价格传导机制中存在的阻碍因素提出相关的政策建议,以完善货币政策和房地产市场,进而提高货币政策的有效性。 正文部分首先从理论上对货币政策房地产价格传导机制的各个环节进行了详细阐述,建立其分析框架。理论部分分别对货币政策房地产价格传导机制的前后两个环节,即货币政策变动对房地产价格的影响和房地产价格变动对实体经济的影响进行了理论阐述。第一个环节表现货币政策通过利率、信贷和资产组合效应三条途径将货币政策的变化传递给房地产市场进而引起房地产价格的变动。第二个环节表现为房地产价格的变动对实体经济中的消费、投资和通货膨胀的影响。 然后在实证部分,运用协整分析、Granger因果检验以及脉冲响应函数等计量方法对以上两个传导环节中的各种效应进行了实证检验。从实证的结果来看,总体上房地产价格能够将货币政策的变化传递给实体经济,这表明房地产价格已经成为我国货币政策传导的一条重要渠道。第一个环节中,货币供应量和信贷对房地产价格的影响为正且显著,利率对房地产价格的影响为负,但利率调控效果不显著。这表明相对于利率,货币当局通过控制货币供应量和银行信贷对房地产价格进行调控将更为有效。第二个环节中,房地产价格的上涨对消费没有刺激作用反而有微弱且不显著的抑制作用,对投资和通货膨胀都有明显的正向作用。 在正文的最后部分进一步分析了我国货币政策房地产价格传导机制中存在的阻碍因素,并提出了改革和完善货币政策体系、发展和完善房地产市场等相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate market has experienced from scratch, from small to large development process. Especially the rapid development of real estate industry in the past ten years and the increasing proportion of real estate industry in the national economy have become one of the important factors to promote the economic development of our country. The development and deepening of the real estate market has improved the asset price transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy, made up for the deficiency of the stock market as the main path of asset price transmission, and expanded the scope of monetary policy to regulate and control the real economy. However, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy becomes more complex with the widening of transmission channels and the increase of transmission subjects, and the difficulty of monetary authorities in implementing monetary policy to regulate and control the macro-economy will increase. The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has made all aspects of the world, especially the monetary authorities, reconsider the relationship among monetary policy, real estate market and the real economy. Therefore, this paper studies the role of China's real estate market in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through empirical methods, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations in view of the obstacles existing in the monetary policy real estate price transmission mechanism. In order to improve the monetary policy and the real estate market, and then improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. In the main part of the paper, the theoretical analysis of the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is discussed in detail, and the analytical framework is established. In the theoretical part, two links of the transmission mechanism of real estate price of monetary policy, that is, the influence of the change of monetary policy on the real estate price and the influence of the change of real estate price on the real economy, are discussed in theory. The first link shows that monetary policy transfers the change of monetary policy to the real estate market through interest rate credit and portfolio effect and then causes the real estate price to change. The second link is the impact of real estate price changes on consumption, investment and inflation in the real economy. Then, in the empirical part, the Granger causality test and impulse response function are used to test the effects of these two transmission links. From the empirical results, as a whole, the real estate price can transfer the change of monetary policy to the real economy, which indicates that the real estate price has become an important channel of monetary policy transmission in China. In the first link, the influence of money supply and credit on real estate price is positive and significant, interest rate has negative effect on real estate price, but the effect of interest rate regulation is not significant. This suggests that the monetary authorities will be more effective in regulating property prices by controlling money supply and bank credit than interest rates. In the second link, the rise of real estate prices does not stimulate consumption, but has a weak and insignificant restraining effect, and has a significant positive effect on both investment and inflation. In the last part of the text, the author further analyzes the obstructing factors in the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China, and puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions, such as reforming and perfecting the monetary policy system, developing and perfecting the real estate market and so on.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F293.3;F822.0;F224
本文编号：2209684
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate market has experienced from scratch, from small to large development process. Especially the rapid development of real estate industry in the past ten years and the increasing proportion of real estate industry in the national economy have become one of the important factors to promote the economic development of our country. The development and deepening of the real estate market has improved the asset price transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy, made up for the deficiency of the stock market as the main path of asset price transmission, and expanded the scope of monetary policy to regulate and control the real economy. However, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy becomes more complex with the widening of transmission channels and the increase of transmission subjects, and the difficulty of monetary authorities in implementing monetary policy to regulate and control the macro-economy will increase. The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has made all aspects of the world, especially the monetary authorities, reconsider the relationship among monetary policy, real estate market and the real economy. Therefore, this paper studies the role of China's real estate market in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through empirical methods, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations in view of the obstacles existing in the monetary policy real estate price transmission mechanism. In order to improve the monetary policy and the real estate market, and then improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. In the main part of the paper, the theoretical analysis of the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is discussed in detail, and the analytical framework is established. In the theoretical part, two links of the transmission mechanism of real estate price of monetary policy, that is, the influence of the change of monetary policy on the real estate price and the influence of the change of real estate price on the real economy, are discussed in theory. The first link shows that monetary policy transfers the change of monetary policy to the real estate market through interest rate credit and portfolio effect and then causes the real estate price to change. The second link is the impact of real estate price changes on consumption, investment and inflation in the real economy. Then, in the empirical part, the Granger causality test and impulse response function are used to test the effects of these two transmission links. From the empirical results, as a whole, the real estate price can transfer the change of monetary policy to the real economy, which indicates that the real estate price has become an important channel of monetary policy transmission in China. In the first link, the influence of money supply and credit on real estate price is positive and significant, interest rate has negative effect on real estate price, but the effect of interest rate regulation is not significant. This suggests that the monetary authorities will be more effective in regulating property prices by controlling money supply and bank credit than interest rates. In the second link, the rise of real estate prices does not stimulate consumption, but has a weak and insignificant restraining effect, and has a significant positive effect on both investment and inflation. In the last part of the text, the author further analyzes the obstructing factors in the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China, and puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions, such as reforming and perfecting the monetary policy system, developing and perfecting the real estate market and so on.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F293.3;F822.0;F224
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