人民币升值的宏观经济影响测算分析
发布时间：2018-08-30 12:31
【摘要】：本文利用国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)定量分析了人民币升值对实体经济的短期影响。为了比较一次性升值和阶梯性升值政策影响的差异,对两种升值方式,一种是假设2010年人民币一次升值3%;另一种方式是阶梯性升值,假设从2010到2012年,每年升值1%的影响分别进行了测算分析。结果表明,一次升值3%会使2010年我国出口相比基准情景下降4.08%,GDP减少0.27%,就业下降0.52%,CPI下降1.17%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the short-term impact of RMB appreciation on the real economy is quantitatively analyzed by using the National Information Center Computable General equilibrium Model (SIC-GE). In order to compare the effects of one-off appreciation and ladder appreciation, the two ways of appreciation are assumed to be three yuan appreciation in 2010, and the other is ladder appreciation, from 2010 to 2012. The impact of annual appreciation of 1% were measured and analyzed. The results show that a rise of 3% in 2010 will reduce China's exports by 4.08%, GDP by 0.27%, employment by 0.52% and CPI by 1.17% compared with the benchmark scenario in 2010.
【作者单位】： 国家信息中心经济预测部;清华大学经管学院;
【基金】：国家信息中心发展基金 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70473043)支持
【分类号】：F832.6;F224
[Abstract]:In this paper, the short-term impact of RMB appreciation on the real economy is quantitatively analyzed by using the National Information Center Computable General equilibrium Model (SIC-GE). In order to compare the effects of one-off appreciation and ladder appreciation, the two ways of appreciation are assumed to be three yuan appreciation in 2010, and the other is ladder appreciation, from 2010 to 2012. The impact of annual appreciation of 1% were measured and analyzed. The results show that a rise of 3% in 2010 will reduce China's exports by 4.08%, GDP by 0.27%, employment by 0.52% and CPI by 1.17% compared with the benchmark scenario in 2010.
【作者单位】： 国家信息中心经济预测部;清华大学经管学院;
【基金】：国家信息中心发展基金 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70473043)支持
【分类号】：F832.6;F224
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 张曙光;人民币汇率问题:升值及其成本—收益分析[J];经济研究;2005年05期
【共引文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 沈庆R，
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