人民币汇率与中美贸易收支的关系研究
发布时间：2018-08-30 13:36
【摘要】：自2002年中国加入WTO后,中美贸易顺差不断扩大,以美国为首的西方国家近年来频频以人民币汇率被操纵为由责难中国,将中美贸易失衡问题归咎于人民币汇率过低,认为人民币汇率被人为操纵而严重低估直接导致了美国巨额贸易逆差的持续。以此为由,美国不断地对中国施压,要求中国政府对人民币汇率做出调整,逼迫人民币大幅度升值。2011年,美国施压人民币升值又掀高潮,人民币汇率问题再次成为中美两国关注的焦点之一。 中美持续性的贸易失衡严重影响了两国正常的贸易往来,很不利于两国的经济稳定和发展。本文对人民币汇率与中美贸易收支的关系进行分析,研究人民币汇率对中美贸易收支的长短期影响,探寻人民币升值是否能有效地促进中美贸易平衡以及其它对中美贸易收支产生影响的因素,为缓解中美两国贸易不平衡的政策选择提供依据,这对中美两国经济贸易的和谐发展有重要的意义。 1994年以前中国存在双重汇率,1994年人民币汇率统一,新的人民币对美元的官方汇率大幅度贬值为1美元兑换8.7元人民币,在这之后的十年间,人民币汇率一直保持稳定,固定在1美元兑换8.28人民币这一水平左右,但在1994年至1997年间中国贸易顺差却显著增加,随后贸易顺差总额时而增加时而减少；而1994年后中美贸易顺差便逐渐扩大,2002年后中美贸易顺差以更快的速度迅猛增加。 2005年央行推出新的汇率政策,人民币汇率不再单一盯住美元,形成更富弹性的人民币汇率制度。汇改当天人民币汇率为1美元对换8.11元人民币,升值2.1个百分点,自此,人民币进入升值通道。2006年5月15日人民币对美元汇率“破8”,2008年5月人民币对美元汇率“破7”,由于金融危机的影响,从2008年下半年至2010年5月问,人民币停止了升值的步伐,然而人民币对美元汇率维持在1美元对换6.82元人民币左右的水平近2年后,人民币汇率再度升值,2010年12月人民币对美元汇率为1美元对换6.6227元人民币,2011年12月人民币对美元汇率为1美元对换6.3009元人民币。我们注意到,在2006-2008年间人民币汇率升值较快,但此期间的中国贸易顺差迅速增加,2006年贸易顺差为1774.6亿美元,2007年为2622亿美元,而到了2008年竟然达到2964.6亿美元,但这之后,贸易顺差有所减少；再看中美贸易收支在2006-2008年间也逐步扩大,却在2009年人民币汇率维持相对稳定的期间内有所下降,而随后又继续攀升。 传统的贸易理论认为货币贬值改善贸易收支,货币升值恶化贸易收支,但根据以上数据我们发现中美贸易收支失衡并没有因为人民币的升值而得到改观,从人民币进入升值通道以来,中国对美国贸易顺差依然保持着扩大的趋势,中美间贸易顺差并没有因为人民币的升值而逐步缩小。那么为什么人民币的升值没有减少中国对美国的顺差,人民币汇率对中美贸易顺差有什么影响,这些问题都值得我们探讨和研究。 外国关于汇率与贸易平衡的理论有价格-现金自动调节机制、马歇尔-勒纳条件、J曲线效应以及麦金农汇率和贸易平衡理论等。价格-现金自动调节机制是休谟提出的,他所处的时代为金本位时代,他认为黄金的自由流出流入能够自动平衡贸易收支,无需国家对汇率进行干预；马歇尔-勒纳条件指出,进口商品的价格需求弹性和出口商品的价格需求弹性的绝对值的和大于1,则贬值才能够改善对外贸易收支,而J曲线效应认为马歇尔-勒纳条件即使成立,但在短期内,贬值也不一定就能使得一国的贸易收支得到改善；吸收分析法将一国的产量、国民收入、支出纳入汇率对贸易平衡关系中考虑；麦金农的汇率与贸易平衡理论,则结合了弹性分析法和吸收分析法,分别对封闭经济和开放经济两种情形下,汇率对贸易的影响做了研究。 如今人民币的升值与30年前日元升值相仿佛,美国对人民币施压和30多年前对日本的所作所为也颇为相似。在探寻人民币汇率与中美贸易收支关系时,我们有必要对日元升值的历史背景及影响进行回顾。日本自二战后经济高速增长,对外贸易迅速扩大,日本生产的工业品充斥着欧美市场；而美国经济增长停滞,失业率上升,经常项目逆差严重,对外贸易出现失衡的情况,特别是美国对日本的贸易逆差极为严重,于是美国便开始干预日本出口政策,迫使日本提高日元对美元汇率,将日美贸易的失衡归于日元对美元汇率被严重低估,企图通过日元的升值来缓解曰美贸易的失衡。然而,事实并非如美国所愿,日元大幅升值后,日本对美国贸易顺差不降反增,日美贸易的不平衡根本没有得到纠正,而大幅的升值对日本经济的打击却是灾难性的,日元由于定价过高,日本经济陷入低谷,至今,日本经济都未从“失落的十年”中恢复过来。通过日元升值历史我们看到,日元升值并没有减少日本对美国的贸易顺差,却给日本经济沉重的打击,日本的经历和惨痛教训值得中国警醒,日本的悲剧也绝不能在中国上演。 为研究人民币汇率与中美贸易收支的关系,本文对人民币汇率制度和中国贸易收支做了回顾,将文字图表相结合,分别对四个阶段的人民币汇率与中国贸易收支关系做了定性分析研究。 接下来本文选用了1995年至2011年的月度经济数据,运用了协整检验,误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验等计量经济方法,通过定量分析研究方法探寻人民币汇率与中美贸易收支的关系。 本文共分为七章,各个章节的安排如下： 第一章为绪论,主要介绍了文章的选题背景与意义,阐述了人民币汇率和贸易额的大致走势和现状；并且介绍了文章的内容重点、结构框架以及创新点和存在的不足。 第二章为汇率与贸易平衡理论和文献综述,主要介绍了价格一现金自动调节机制、马歇尔一勒纳条件、J曲线效应以及麦金农汇率和贸易平衡理论。在本章文献综述这一节主要有三个部分,分别为国外关于汇率与贸易收支关系的研究、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支关系的研究以及人民币汇率与中美贸易收支关系的研究。 第三章主要研究70年代开始的日元大幅升值与日美贸易收支的关系,阐述了日元升值的背景以及日元升值给日本经济带来的影响,这一部分的研究探寻以给中国一些借鉴和启示。 第四章和第五章分别是通过定性和定量的方法来研究人民币汇率和中美贸易收支的关系。第四章中我们将文字图表相结合对人民币汇率与中国贸易收支的关系进行定性分析,结果表明人民币汇率对中美贸易收支影响有限；第五章采用了1995年至2011年的月度经济数据,运用实证方法对人民币汇率与中美贸易收支的关系进行了研究分析,协整检验结果显示人民币汇率与中美贸易收支存在长期均衡关系,但是标准协整方程的系数说明人民币汇率对于中美贸易收支的影响远远小于美国实际GDP对中美贸易收支的影响,我们从误差修正模型中得出中美贸易收支存在轻微的J曲线效应,而格兰杰因果检验表明了人民币汇率与中美贸易收支间不存在因果关系。以上运用计量手段分析得出的结论也进一步证明人民币升值并不能解决中美贸易失衡问题。 第六章为影响中美贸易收支的其它因素。既然人民币汇率对中美贸易收支的影响十分有限,本章进一步探讨了除汇率以外其它影响中美贸易的因素。通过对中美两国储蓄一投资缺口以及贸易差额占GDP比重作图比较,发现储蓄一投资缺口和贸易差额占GDP比重的趋势线几乎趋于一致,说明美国的过度消费和过低的储蓄率是近二十年美国贸易赤字的原因之一,同时世界产业结构调整和美国对中国的进口限制都是引发中美贸易失衡的因素；而中美数据统计差异使得美国过高地估计了美国对中国的贸易逆差。 第七章为政策建议,人民币汇率升值并不能有效地平衡中美贸易收支,文章提出了相应的政策建议,中国不仅需敦促美国要逐步地改善对中国出口的管制政策和提高美国的储蓄率,同时中国也要扩大内需,改善中美贸易结构,加快人民币汇率体制的改革。 本文的创新点有三点：一、本文采用文字、数据和图表,通过定性和定量结合的方法对人民币汇率和中美贸易收支的关系进行分析研究,得出的结论表明人民币汇率对中美贸易收支影响有限,现阶段人民币升值并不能促进中美贸易收支的平衡。二、本文采用了1995年-2011年的月度经济数据进行建模分析,克服了选取年度或季度数据造成的样本点过少的缺点。三、很多研究中只讨论汇率与贸易收支的关系,但本文对影响中美贸易收支的其它因素进行了详细深入的讨论。
[Abstract]:Since China joined the WTO in 2002, the trade surplus between China and the United States has been enlarging. In recent years, the western countries led by the United States frequently blamed China for manipulating the exchange rate of RMB. They blamed the trade imbalance between China and the United States on the low exchange rate of RMB. They believed that the manipulation of the exchange rate of RMB and the serious undervaluation of the exchange rate of RMB directly led to the huge trade deficit of the United States. For this reason, the United States has been pressing China to adjust the exchange rate of the RMB, forcing the RMB to appreciate substantially. In 2011, the United States pressure on the appreciation of the RMB set off a climax, the RMB exchange rate issue has once again become a focus of attention between China and the United States.
The persistent trade imbalance between China and the United States seriously affects the normal trade exchanges between the two countries, which is not conducive to the economic stability and development of the two countries. Easy balance and other factors affecting Sino-US trade balance provide the basis for policy choices to alleviate Sino-US trade imbalance, which is of great significance to the harmonious development of Sino-US economic and trade.
Before 1994, there was a double exchange rate in China. In 1994, the exchange rate of RMB was unified. The official exchange rate of the new RMB was greatly depreciated to 8.7 RMB against the US dollar. During the following ten years, the exchange rate of RMB remained stable, fixed at the level of 8.28 RMB against the US dollar. However, the trade surplus increased significantly, and then the total trade surplus increased and decreased from time to time. The Sino-US trade surplus gradually expanded after 1994, and the Sino-US trade surplus increased rapidly after 2002.
In 2005, the central bank introduced a new exchange rate policy. The RMB exchange rate was no longer pegged to the US dollar alone, forming a more flexible exchange rate system. On the day of the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate was 8.11 yuan to the US dollar, and the appreciation rate was 2.1 percentage points. Since then, the RMB has entered the appreciation channel. On May 15, 2006, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar "broke 8", and on May 5, 2008. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar "broke 7" in January. Due to the impact of the financial crisis, the RMB stopped appreciating from the second half of 2008 to May 2010. However, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar remained at the level of about 6.82 RMB against the US dollar for nearly two years, and the RMB exchange rate rose again. In December 2010, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 1. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the US dollar was 6.6227 yuan and 6.3009 yuan in December 2011. By $296.46 billion, the trade surplus had declined, and the balance of trade between China and the United States had gradually expanded between 2006 and 2008, but declined during the relatively stable period of the RMB exchange rate in 2009, and then continued to climb.
Traditional trade theory holds that currency depreciation improves trade balance and currency appreciation aggravates trade balance. However, according to the above data, we find that the imbalance of trade balance between China and the United States has not been improved because of the appreciation of the RMB. Since the RMB entered the appreciation channel, China's trade surplus with the United States has maintained an expanding trend, and the trade surplus between China and the United States has maintained an expanding trend. The trade surplus has not gradually narrowed because of the appreciation of the RMB. So why does the appreciation of the RMB not reduce China's surplus with the United States and what impact does the exchange rate of the RMB have on the trade surplus between China and the United States deserve our discussion and study.
Foreign theories on exchange rate and trade balance include price-cash automatic adjustment mechanism, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effect and McKinnon's exchange rate and trade balance theory. The Marshall-Lerner condition points out that only when the absolute value of the elasticity of price demand of imported commodities and that of price demand of export commodities is greater than 1, the devaluation can improve the external trade balance. The J-curve effect holds that the Marshall-Lerner condition, even if it holds, will depreciate in the short run. It can not necessarily improve a country's trade balance; absorptive analysis takes the output, national income and expenditure of a country into account in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance; McKinnon's exchange rate and trade balance theory combines the elasticity analysis method and absorption analysis method, respectively, in closed economy and open economy. The impact of rate on trade is studied.
The appreciation of the RMB today is similar to the appreciation of the Japanese yen 30 years ago, and the US pressure on the RMB is similar to what Japan did more than 30 years ago. With the rapid expansion of foreign trade and the filling of European and American markets with Japanese manufactured industrial goods, the United States, with stagnant economic growth, rising unemployment rate, a serious current account deficit and imbalances in foreign trade, especially the extremely serious trade deficit between the United States and Japan, began to intervene in Japan's export policy, forcing Japan to raise the yen-to-Japan ratio. The US dollar exchange rate attributes the trade imbalance between Japan and the US to a serious undervaluation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar in an attempt to alleviate the trade imbalance between Japan and the US through the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Japan's economy has not recovered from the "lost decade". Through the history of the appreciation of the yen, we can see that the appreciation of the yen did not reduce Japan's trade surplus with the United States, but gave a heavy blow to the Japanese economy. Experience and painful lessons deserve China's vigilance, and Japan's tragedy must never be staged in China.
In order to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance, this paper reviews the RMB exchange rate regime and China's trade balance, and makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance in four stages by combining text and chart.
Next, this paper selects the monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011, uses co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test to explore the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance through quantitative analysis.
This article is divided into seven chapters. The chapters are arranged as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, expounds the general trend and current situation of RMB exchange rate and trade volume, and introduces the main content, structural framework, innovation and shortcomings of the article.
The second chapter is the exchange rate and trade balance theory and literature review, mainly introduces the price-cash automatic adjustment mechanism, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effect and McKinnon exchange rate and trade balance theory. Research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance and the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China-US trade balance.
The third chapter mainly studies the relationship between the sharp appreciation of the yen and the trade balance between Japan and the United States since the 1970s, and expounds the background of the appreciation of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy.
Chapter Four and Chapter Five study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance through qualitative and quantitative methods respectively. In Chapter Four, we analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance qualitatively by combining text and chart. The results show that RMB exchange rate has limited influence on Sino-US trade balance. Using monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011, this paper studies and analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance by empirical method. The co-integration test results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. However, the coefficients of the standard co-integration equation show that the RMB exchange rate is related to Sino-US trade balance. The effect is far less than the effect of the real GDP of the United States on the trade balance between China and the United States. From the error correction model, we find that there is a slight J-curve effect on the trade balance between China and the United States. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the trade balance between China and the United States. It proves that RMB appreciation can not solve the problem of Sino US trade imbalance.
Chapter 6 is about other factors that affect Sino-US trade balance. Since the RMB exchange rate has a very limited impact on Sino-US trade balance, this chapter further explores other factors that affect Sino-US trade besides exchange rate. The trend line of the proportion of import and trade balance to GDP is almost the same, which shows that the excessive consumption and low savings rate in the United States are one of the reasons for the trade deficit of the United States in the past two decades. At the same time, the adjustment of the world industrial structure and the import restrictions imposed by the United States on China are the factors causing the Sino-US trade imbalance. The United States has overestimated the US trade deficit with China.
The seventh chapter is the policy suggestion. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate can not effectively balance the trade balance between China and the United States. The article puts forward corresponding policy suggestions. China not only needs to urge the United States to gradually improve its export control policy to China and increase the savings rate of the United States, but also needs to expand domestic demand, improve the Sino-US trade structure and speed up the people's life. Reform of the exchange rate system.
There are three innovations in this paper. First, this paper uses text, data and charts to analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The conclusion is that RMB exchange rate has a limited impact on Sino-US trade balance. At present, RMB appreciation can not promote Sino-US trade balance. Second, this paper uses the monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011 to model and analyze, overcomes the shortcomings of selecting too few sample points caused by annual or quarterly data. Third, many studies only discuss the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance, but this paper discusses other factors affecting Sino-US trade balance in detail.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F224
本文编号：2213234
[Abstract]:Since China joined the WTO in 2002, the trade surplus between China and the United States has been enlarging. In recent years, the western countries led by the United States frequently blamed China for manipulating the exchange rate of RMB. They blamed the trade imbalance between China and the United States on the low exchange rate of RMB. They believed that the manipulation of the exchange rate of RMB and the serious undervaluation of the exchange rate of RMB directly led to the huge trade deficit of the United States. For this reason, the United States has been pressing China to adjust the exchange rate of the RMB, forcing the RMB to appreciate substantially. In 2011, the United States pressure on the appreciation of the RMB set off a climax, the RMB exchange rate issue has once again become a focus of attention between China and the United States.
The persistent trade imbalance between China and the United States seriously affects the normal trade exchanges between the two countries, which is not conducive to the economic stability and development of the two countries. Easy balance and other factors affecting Sino-US trade balance provide the basis for policy choices to alleviate Sino-US trade imbalance, which is of great significance to the harmonious development of Sino-US economic and trade.
Before 1994, there was a double exchange rate in China. In 1994, the exchange rate of RMB was unified. The official exchange rate of the new RMB was greatly depreciated to 8.7 RMB against the US dollar. During the following ten years, the exchange rate of RMB remained stable, fixed at the level of 8.28 RMB against the US dollar. However, the trade surplus increased significantly, and then the total trade surplus increased and decreased from time to time. The Sino-US trade surplus gradually expanded after 1994, and the Sino-US trade surplus increased rapidly after 2002.
In 2005, the central bank introduced a new exchange rate policy. The RMB exchange rate was no longer pegged to the US dollar alone, forming a more flexible exchange rate system. On the day of the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate was 8.11 yuan to the US dollar, and the appreciation rate was 2.1 percentage points. Since then, the RMB has entered the appreciation channel. On May 15, 2006, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar "broke 8", and on May 5, 2008. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar "broke 7" in January. Due to the impact of the financial crisis, the RMB stopped appreciating from the second half of 2008 to May 2010. However, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar remained at the level of about 6.82 RMB against the US dollar for nearly two years, and the RMB exchange rate rose again. In December 2010, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 1. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the US dollar was 6.6227 yuan and 6.3009 yuan in December 2011. By $296.46 billion, the trade surplus had declined, and the balance of trade between China and the United States had gradually expanded between 2006 and 2008, but declined during the relatively stable period of the RMB exchange rate in 2009, and then continued to climb.
Traditional trade theory holds that currency depreciation improves trade balance and currency appreciation aggravates trade balance. However, according to the above data, we find that the imbalance of trade balance between China and the United States has not been improved because of the appreciation of the RMB. Since the RMB entered the appreciation channel, China's trade surplus with the United States has maintained an expanding trend, and the trade surplus between China and the United States has maintained an expanding trend. The trade surplus has not gradually narrowed because of the appreciation of the RMB. So why does the appreciation of the RMB not reduce China's surplus with the United States and what impact does the exchange rate of the RMB have on the trade surplus between China and the United States deserve our discussion and study.
Foreign theories on exchange rate and trade balance include price-cash automatic adjustment mechanism, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effect and McKinnon's exchange rate and trade balance theory. The Marshall-Lerner condition points out that only when the absolute value of the elasticity of price demand of imported commodities and that of price demand of export commodities is greater than 1, the devaluation can improve the external trade balance. The J-curve effect holds that the Marshall-Lerner condition, even if it holds, will depreciate in the short run. It can not necessarily improve a country's trade balance; absorptive analysis takes the output, national income and expenditure of a country into account in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance; McKinnon's exchange rate and trade balance theory combines the elasticity analysis method and absorption analysis method, respectively, in closed economy and open economy. The impact of rate on trade is studied.
The appreciation of the RMB today is similar to the appreciation of the Japanese yen 30 years ago, and the US pressure on the RMB is similar to what Japan did more than 30 years ago. With the rapid expansion of foreign trade and the filling of European and American markets with Japanese manufactured industrial goods, the United States, with stagnant economic growth, rising unemployment rate, a serious current account deficit and imbalances in foreign trade, especially the extremely serious trade deficit between the United States and Japan, began to intervene in Japan's export policy, forcing Japan to raise the yen-to-Japan ratio. The US dollar exchange rate attributes the trade imbalance between Japan and the US to a serious undervaluation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar in an attempt to alleviate the trade imbalance between Japan and the US through the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Japan's economy has not recovered from the "lost decade". Through the history of the appreciation of the yen, we can see that the appreciation of the yen did not reduce Japan's trade surplus with the United States, but gave a heavy blow to the Japanese economy. Experience and painful lessons deserve China's vigilance, and Japan's tragedy must never be staged in China.
In order to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance, this paper reviews the RMB exchange rate regime and China's trade balance, and makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance in four stages by combining text and chart.
Next, this paper selects the monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011, uses co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test to explore the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance through quantitative analysis.
This article is divided into seven chapters. The chapters are arranged as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, expounds the general trend and current situation of RMB exchange rate and trade volume, and introduces the main content, structural framework, innovation and shortcomings of the article.
The second chapter is the exchange rate and trade balance theory and literature review, mainly introduces the price-cash automatic adjustment mechanism, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effect and McKinnon exchange rate and trade balance theory. Research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance and the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China-US trade balance.
The third chapter mainly studies the relationship between the sharp appreciation of the yen and the trade balance between Japan and the United States since the 1970s, and expounds the background of the appreciation of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy.
Chapter Four and Chapter Five study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance through qualitative and quantitative methods respectively. In Chapter Four, we analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance qualitatively by combining text and chart. The results show that RMB exchange rate has limited influence on Sino-US trade balance. Using monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011, this paper studies and analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance by empirical method. The co-integration test results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. However, the coefficients of the standard co-integration equation show that the RMB exchange rate is related to Sino-US trade balance. The effect is far less than the effect of the real GDP of the United States on the trade balance between China and the United States. From the error correction model, we find that there is a slight J-curve effect on the trade balance between China and the United States. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the trade balance between China and the United States. It proves that RMB appreciation can not solve the problem of Sino US trade imbalance.
Chapter 6 is about other factors that affect Sino-US trade balance. Since the RMB exchange rate has a very limited impact on Sino-US trade balance, this chapter further explores other factors that affect Sino-US trade besides exchange rate. The trend line of the proportion of import and trade balance to GDP is almost the same, which shows that the excessive consumption and low savings rate in the United States are one of the reasons for the trade deficit of the United States in the past two decades. At the same time, the adjustment of the world industrial structure and the import restrictions imposed by the United States on China are the factors causing the Sino-US trade imbalance. The United States has overestimated the US trade deficit with China.
The seventh chapter is the policy suggestion. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate can not effectively balance the trade balance between China and the United States. The article puts forward corresponding policy suggestions. China not only needs to urge the United States to gradually improve its export control policy to China and increase the savings rate of the United States, but also needs to expand domestic demand, improve the Sino-US trade structure and speed up the people's life. Reform of the exchange rate system.
There are three innovations in this paper. First, this paper uses text, data and charts to analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The conclusion is that RMB exchange rate has a limited impact on Sino-US trade balance. At present, RMB appreciation can not promote Sino-US trade balance. Second, this paper uses the monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011 to model and analyze, overcomes the shortcomings of selecting too few sample points caused by annual or quarterly data. Third, many studies only discuss the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance, but this paper discusses other factors affecting Sino-US trade balance in detail.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F224
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