我国的通货膨胀动态与货币政策研究
发布时间：2018-08-31 14:53
【摘要】：进入21世纪,我国经济运行摆脱了改革开放初期以“高增长、高通货膨胀、高波动”为特征的大起大落局面,进入“高增长、低通货膨胀、平稳化”的轨道,无论从水平还是波动幅度来衡量,我国通货膨胀处于由高向低转变的态势。但另一方面通货膨胀的持续性或者惯性仍然较高。 长期形成的通货膨胀持续性特征,现阶段劳动力、资源能源约束和流动性过剩形成的通胀环境,都对我国的货币政策构成一定挑战。研究这些问题不仅是为了检验新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的适用性,也有利于针对我国不同于发达国家的通货膨胀环境的现实,对宏观经济预测和政策制定提供政策建议。 为回答上述问题,论文大致沿着菲利普斯曲线、货币政策规则和宏观金融模型三个方向,来分析短期通胀动态与货币政策之间关系。菲利普斯曲线揭示了理性预期和适应性预期在通胀动态变化中的作用机理；货币政策规则考察了货币政策工具在产出、通胀等不同政策目标之间进行权衡的政策效应；宏观金融模型刻画了宏观经济变量与收益率曲线之间的动态联系,从中提炼出收益率曲线的水平和斜率因子蕴含着经济增长和通胀预期的信息。 较高的通货膨胀持续性是我国通胀预期不稳定、货币政策可信度和有效性不足、微观价格粘性程度较高的集中反映。运用混合式新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线研究发现,产出缺口相对于边际劳动力成本对我国通胀动态变化影响更显著。微观定价结构中前瞻成分比后顾成分所占比重大,显示通胀预期具有相对重要性。泰勒规则和最优货币政策规则都反映我国货币政策目标中,通胀和利率平滑所占权重相对于产出缺口更重要,但利率对通胀反应力度不足,稳定通胀预期作用不显著,是导致我国通胀持续性较高的一个重要原因。宏观金融模型显示利率期限结构中的水平因子在一定程度上反映了通胀预期,表明从短期到长期的利率传导机制基本形成。 由于我国通胀持续性较高,使得反通胀的成本,即牺牲率并没有随着通胀水平下降而降低,反而有所增加。本文提出解决上述问题的政策建议：为了避免货币政策对食品和能源等要素价格暂时性上涨反应过度而造成不必要的产出波动,应当在波动性和持续性特征基础上,建立我国的核心通胀指标。从长期考虑,通货膨胀目标制是完善我国货币政策框架的一个重要选择,以达到增进货币政策的可信度,稳定通货膨胀预期的目的。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, China's economic operation has got rid of the ups and downs characterized by "high growth, high inflation, high fluctuation" in the early stage of reform and opening up, and entered the track of "high growth, low inflation, stable". China's inflation is changing from high to low, whether measured by the level or the range of fluctuations. On the other hand, the persistence or inertia of inflation is still relatively high. The persistent characteristics of inflation, the current labor force, resource and energy constraints and the inflation environment formed by excess liquidity all pose a certain challenge to China's monetary policy. The purpose of studying these problems is not only to test the applicability of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, but also to provide policy advice for macroeconomic prediction and policy making according to the reality of inflation environment in China, which is different from that of developed countries. In order to answer the above questions, the paper analyzes the relationship between short-term inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the following three directions: Phillips curve, monetary policy rules and macro-financial model. The Phillips curve reveals the mechanism of rational expectation and adaptive expectation in the dynamic change of inflation, and the monetary policy rules examine the policy effects of monetary policy tools on the tradeoff between different policy objectives such as output, inflation, etc. The macro financial model depicts the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, from which the level and slope factors of the yield curve contain the information of economic growth and inflation expectation. The persistence of higher inflation is a concentrated reflection of the instability of inflation expectations, the lack of credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy, and the high degree of stickiness of micro price in China. By using the hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve, it is found that the output gap has a more significant effect on the dynamic change of inflation than marginal labor cost in China. The foresight component has a larger proportion than the backside component in the micro pricing structure, which indicates that inflation expectation is of relative importance. The Taylor rule and the optimal monetary policy rule both reflect that the weight of inflation and interest rate smoothing is more important than the output gap, but the interest rate has insufficient response to inflation, and the effect of stabilizing inflation expectation is not significant. It is an important reason for the persistence of inflation in China. The macro financial model shows that the horizontal factors in the term structure of interest rate reflect inflation expectation to a certain extent and indicate that the transmission mechanism of interest rate is basically formed from short term to long term. Because of the high persistence of inflation in our country, the cost of anti-inflation, that is, the rate of sacrifice, does not decrease with the decline of inflation, but increases. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to solve the above problems: in order to avoid unnecessary output fluctuations caused by monetary policy overreacting to temporary price increases of food and energy, we should base on the characteristics of volatility and persistence. Establish our country's core inflation index. In the long run, inflation targeting system is an important choice to perfect the framework of monetary policy in China, in order to enhance the credibility of monetary policy and stabilize inflation expectations.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0
本文编号：2215323
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, China's economic operation has got rid of the ups and downs characterized by "high growth, high inflation, high fluctuation" in the early stage of reform and opening up, and entered the track of "high growth, low inflation, stable". China's inflation is changing from high to low, whether measured by the level or the range of fluctuations. On the other hand, the persistence or inertia of inflation is still relatively high. The persistent characteristics of inflation, the current labor force, resource and energy constraints and the inflation environment formed by excess liquidity all pose a certain challenge to China's monetary policy. The purpose of studying these problems is not only to test the applicability of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, but also to provide policy advice for macroeconomic prediction and policy making according to the reality of inflation environment in China, which is different from that of developed countries. In order to answer the above questions, the paper analyzes the relationship between short-term inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the following three directions: Phillips curve, monetary policy rules and macro-financial model. The Phillips curve reveals the mechanism of rational expectation and adaptive expectation in the dynamic change of inflation, and the monetary policy rules examine the policy effects of monetary policy tools on the tradeoff between different policy objectives such as output, inflation, etc. The macro financial model depicts the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, from which the level and slope factors of the yield curve contain the information of economic growth and inflation expectation. The persistence of higher inflation is a concentrated reflection of the instability of inflation expectations, the lack of credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy, and the high degree of stickiness of micro price in China. By using the hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve, it is found that the output gap has a more significant effect on the dynamic change of inflation than marginal labor cost in China. The foresight component has a larger proportion than the backside component in the micro pricing structure, which indicates that inflation expectation is of relative importance. The Taylor rule and the optimal monetary policy rule both reflect that the weight of inflation and interest rate smoothing is more important than the output gap, but the interest rate has insufficient response to inflation, and the effect of stabilizing inflation expectation is not significant. It is an important reason for the persistence of inflation in China. The macro financial model shows that the horizontal factors in the term structure of interest rate reflect inflation expectation to a certain extent and indicate that the transmission mechanism of interest rate is basically formed from short term to long term. Because of the high persistence of inflation in our country, the cost of anti-inflation, that is, the rate of sacrifice, does not decrease with the decline of inflation, but increases. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to solve the above problems: in order to avoid unnecessary output fluctuations caused by monetary policy overreacting to temporary price increases of food and energy, we should base on the characteristics of volatility and persistence. Establish our country's core inflation index. In the long run, inflation targeting system is an important choice to perfect the framework of monetary policy in China, in order to enhance the credibility of monetary policy and stabilize inflation expectations.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0
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