我国货币政策区域效应非对称性问题研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 13:57

【摘要】：货币政策是以总量调控为主的重要的宏观经济管理手段，货币当局更多关注经济的整体运行情况，制定和实施统一的货币政策。统一的货币政策是以货币区内各地区经济发展的同质性为前提的，如果区域经济发展不均衡，统一的货币政策就会产生区域效应非对称性问题。货币政策区域效应非对称性在降低货币政策整体效应的同时，也将进一步拉大区域间经济发展的差距。对我国货币政策区域效应非对称性的存在、度量和成因的研究是提高货币政策效应和促进区域经济均衡发展的重要研究课题。论文依据我国各省市场化指数和经济周期的同步性，用系统聚类和K-Mean聚类的方法把我国31个省份划分为三大区域：经济发达区域、经济欠发达区域和经济不发达区域。对货币政策区域效应非对称性的相关概念进行了界定。对货币政策有效性理论、最优货币区理论和货币政策传导机制理论进行了简单论述，这三个理论分别是本文研究的前提、初步判断的依据和成因分析的基础。在对我国中央银行体制和统一货币政策实践进行评述后，分析了我国统一货币政策必须面对的区域经济金融发展差异的现实约束。基于最优货币区标准的分析认为我国目前还不是最优货币区，依据最优货币区理论初步判断我国存在货币政策区域效应非对称性。以1985-2010年的年度数据为样本，采用平稳性检验、格兰杰因果检验、VAR和SVAR模型、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等实证技术对我国东、中、西三个大区域货币政策效应的非对称性进行了检验，检验结果认为我国货币政策存在区域效应非对称性。货币政策冲击下，经济发达的东部区域产出效应远远超出经济欠发达和不发达的中西部区域，东部区域价格对货币政策冲击的响应却小于中西部区域，说明东部区域货币政策效应优于中西部区域。以2004.01-2011.03的季度数据为样本，对我国三个大区域货币政策效应非对称性进行了补充和佐证性的再次检验，检验结果显示货币政策区域效应强度和时滞存在非对称性。再次基于同样的年度样本对31个省的货币政策省际效应非对称性进行了实证检验，检验结果认为省际间存在货币政策效应非对称性。对我国货币政策传导主体逐一分析，寻找货币政策区域效应非对称性产生的原因。首先对中央银行统一货币政策工具操作的区域效应非对称进行分析。再基于平稳性检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和状态空间模型等实证技术检验我国基础货币统一调控下区域货币供给效应的非对称性，检验结果显示我国基础货币统一调控下，，东部区域货币供给效应大于中西部区域，东部获得了比中西部更多的货币供应量。另外，东部区域金融市场、金融机构以及企业的发展水平较高、结构完善，居民家庭收入、消费水平高，这些因素都有利于货币政策的顺畅传导。相比之下，中西部区域金融市场、金融机构和企业的发展落后，居民收入和消费水平较低，不利于货币政策传导。基于截面数据的实证检验与理论分析结论一致，认为区域金融体系、企业、居民家庭等的差异是产生货币政策区域效应非对称性的原因。基于成因分析，提出针对性的政策建议：政府行为应在我国区域经济金融均衡发展中科学定位；依据区域经济金融发展水平和货币政策传导效应的相近程度，调整中国人民银行大区分行的管辖范围；充分发挥中国人民银行分支机构的作用；采取适度差别的区域货币政策；完善我国中西部区域金融机构和金融市场体系，加大中西部区域企业改革，提高中西部区域居民的收入水平。配合财政政策、产业政策和对外贸易政策、收入分配政策，加快我国区域经济均衡发展，把我国逐步构建成为最优货币区。本论文有图71幅，表87个，参考文献224篇。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important macroeconomic management method based on total amount control. Monetary authorities pay more attention to the overall operation of the economy and formulate and implement a unified monetary policy. The asymmetry of regional effect of monetary policy will further widen the gap between regions while reducing the overall effect of monetary policy. The important research topic of balanced economic development.
Based on the synchronization of market index and economic cycle in China's provinces, 31 provinces are divided into three regions by means of systematic clustering and K-Mean clustering: economically developed region, economically underdeveloped region and economically underdeveloped region. Policy effectiveness theory, Optimal Monetary Zone Theory and monetary policy transmission mechanism theory are briefly discussed. These three theories are the premise of this study, the basis of preliminary judgment and the basis of cause analysis.
After reviewing China's central banking system and the practice of unified monetary policy, this paper analyzes the practical constraints that China's unified monetary policy must face in terms of regional economic and financial development differences. The asymmetry of regional effect of monetary policy is tested by stationarity test, Granger causality test, VAR and SVAR models, impulse response function and forecast difference decomposition with the annual data from 1985 to 2010. Under the impact of monetary policy, the output effect of the developed eastern region far exceeds that of the underdeveloped and underdeveloped central and Western regions, while the response of the eastern region price to the impact of monetary policy is smaller than that of the central and Western regions. The quarterly data from January 2004 to March 2011 are used as samples to supplement and re-test the asymmetry of monetary policy effects in three large regions in China. The results show that the intensity and time lag of monetary policy regional effects are asymmetric. Again, based on the same annual sample, the inter-provincial effects of monetary policy in 31 provinces are asymmetric. The empirical test shows that the monetary policy effect is asymmetrical among provinces.
This paper first analyzes the asymmetric regional effects of the central bank's unified operation of monetary policy instruments, and then examines the basis of China by empirical techniques such as stationarity test, VAR model, impulse response function and state space model. The test results show that under the unified monetary control, the effect of money supply in the eastern region is greater than that in the central and Western regions, and the eastern region gets more money supply than the central and Western regions. In contrast, the development of financial markets, financial institutions and enterprises in the central and western regions is backward, and the income and consumption level of residents are low, which is not conducive to the transmission of monetary policy. It is believed that the asymmetry of regional effect of monetary policy is caused by the differences of regional financial system, enterprises and households.
Based on the analysis of the causes, this paper puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions: government behavior should be scientifically positioned in the balanced development of regional economy and finance in China; adjust the jurisdiction of the large-scale branches of the People's Bank of China according to the similarity between the level of regional economic and financial development and the transmission effect of monetary policy; give full play to the branches of the People's Bank We should adopt a moderately differentiated regional monetary policy, improve the financial institutions and financial market system in the central and western regions of China, intensify the reform of enterprises in the central and Western regions, and raise the income level of residents in the central and Western regions. It will gradually build our country into the best currency area.
This paper has 71 figures, 87 tables and 224 references.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

【参考文献】