基于系统复杂性的金融危机演化分析
发布时间：2018-09-07 12:00
【摘要】：从复杂金融系统的视角,基于系统复杂性理论,对于经济全球化背景下的金融危机生成、深化等过程进行全面分析,以探寻金融危机的系统演化特征和演化路径。 首先,对金融危机演化的系统复杂性进行总体理论分析,揭示金融系统作用机制,归纳金融危机演化的特征,进而解析金融危机的系统演化机制。 其次,以美国次贷危机为例,对金融危机生成的系统复杂性进行例证分析。根据美国1987年至2009年的标准普尔500指数数据,通过系统非线性、分形检验和分形维数的计算,分析了“危机前”、“次贷危机”、“金融危机”三个时段的系统演化特性的变化,揭示了金融危机生成与爆发的系统演化复杂动态性。 第三,基于产品市场和金融市场的平衡,通过建立危机期间名义汇率和价格可渐进调整的小型开放经济系统模型,分析了在部分负债美元化情况下,基于较低和较高的总投资利率弹性两种情况,实施货币盯住措施成功和失败两种结果的系统动态特性。通过对危机深化期中国在此次国际金融危机中的降低利率政策和金融救助政策的短期政策效应实证分析,得出政策实施有效的结论,模型应用成功。 最后,阐述了后金融危机时期金融市场全球化的发展趋势,进一步探讨了金融、经济系统存在的演化风险,侧面分析了中国当前的经济、金融现状,以简要提出防范建议。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of complex financial system, based on the theory of system complexity, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the process of financial crisis generation and deepening under the background of economic globalization, in order to explore the system evolution characteristics and evolution path of financial crisis. First of all, the system complexity of the evolution of financial crisis is analyzed in general, the mechanism of financial system is revealed, the characteristics of the evolution of financial crisis are summarized, and the system evolution mechanism of financial crisis is analyzed. Secondly, taking the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as an example, the system complexity of the financial crisis is illustrated and analyzed. Based on the S & P 500 index data from 1987 to 2009 in the United States, this paper analyzes the "pre-crisis" and "sub-prime crisis" through systematic nonlinearity, fractal testing and fractal dimension calculation. The change of the system evolution characteristics in three periods of "financial crisis" reveals the complex dynamics of the system evolution of the emergence and outbreak of financial crisis. Thirdly, based on the balance between the product market and the financial market, through the establishment of a small open economic system model in which nominal exchange rates and prices can be adjusted gradually during the crisis, this paper analyzes the dollarization of partial liabilities. Based on the lower and higher total investment interest rate elasticity, the system dynamic characteristics of the success and failure of the currency peg are discussed. Based on the empirical analysis of the short-term policy effects of China's interest rate reduction policy and financial rescue policy in the international financial crisis during the deepening period of the crisis, the effective conclusion of the policy implementation and the successful application of the model are obtained. Finally, this paper expounds the development trend of the financial market globalization in the post-financial crisis period, further discusses the evolution risks of the financial and economic systems, analyzes the current economic and financial situation in China, and puts forward some preventive suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F831.59
本文编号：2228206
[Abstract]:From the point of view of complex financial system, based on the theory of system complexity, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the process of financial crisis generation and deepening under the background of economic globalization, in order to explore the system evolution characteristics and evolution path of financial crisis. First of all, the system complexity of the evolution of financial crisis is analyzed in general, the mechanism of financial system is revealed, the characteristics of the evolution of financial crisis are summarized, and the system evolution mechanism of financial crisis is analyzed. Secondly, taking the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as an example, the system complexity of the financial crisis is illustrated and analyzed. Based on the S & P 500 index data from 1987 to 2009 in the United States, this paper analyzes the "pre-crisis" and "sub-prime crisis" through systematic nonlinearity, fractal testing and fractal dimension calculation. The change of the system evolution characteristics in three periods of "financial crisis" reveals the complex dynamics of the system evolution of the emergence and outbreak of financial crisis. Thirdly, based on the balance between the product market and the financial market, through the establishment of a small open economic system model in which nominal exchange rates and prices can be adjusted gradually during the crisis, this paper analyzes the dollarization of partial liabilities. Based on the lower and higher total investment interest rate elasticity, the system dynamic characteristics of the success and failure of the currency peg are discussed. Based on the empirical analysis of the short-term policy effects of China's interest rate reduction policy and financial rescue policy in the international financial crisis during the deepening period of the crisis, the effective conclusion of the policy implementation and the successful application of the model are obtained. Finally, this paper expounds the development trend of the financial market globalization in the post-financial crisis period, further discusses the evolution risks of the financial and economic systems, analyzes the current economic and financial situation in China, and puts forward some preventive suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F831.59
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 刘琳琳;国际金融危机对我国进出口贸易传染研究[D];吉林大学;2013年
，本文编号：2228206
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