资本账户开放对宏观经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 13:48

【摘要】：2012年5月,中国人民银行发表声明指出中国加快资本账户开放条件已基本成熟。2014年11月,沪港通完成各项准备工作如期启动,中国资本账户开放正在有序地进行。资本账户开放影响宏观经济,如何开放、如何规避潜在风险以及如何监管等成为了目前理论界的热点课题。本文从实证分析角度,用面板数据系统性GMM方法检验资本账户开放对经济增长的影响,包括人均国内生产总值、居民最终消费支出以及一般政府消费支出,基于实证分析结果提供了我国开放资本账户的政策建议。具体而言,论文分为五章,第一章为导论,讨论了理论背景与意义、核心概念与国内外文献综述,介绍了论文的研究方法、内容与创新之处。第二章按照时间顺序论述了我国资本账户开放的演进和发展。第三章是资本账户开放程度的测算,在介绍各种测算方法之后,运用改进的强度法测算了我国与40个国家和地区的资本账户开放指数。第四章运用系统性GMM模型对资本账户开放对宏观经济的影响进行研究,分别收集了发达国家与发展中国家的数据,采用GMM-SYS方法进行参数估计,同时引入工具变量来解决内生性问题,实现不增加外生变量的情况下解决内生性问题。模型结果显示,对于发达国家,资本账户开放指数影响发达国家的经济增长指标均不显著,说明截至1999年发达国家的资本账户已经达到相对自由,其对经济增长的影响不再明显。对于发展中国家,资本账户开放指数能够显著的促进发展中国家人均GDP与居民最终消费,从而促进经济增长,为我国开放资本账户提供了理论支持。第五章对模型结论做了简要的概括,针对我国如何开放资本账户以及如何规避潜在风险提供了一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:In May 2012, the People's Bank of China issued a statement pointing out that China's conditions for accelerating the opening of its capital account are basically ripe. In November 2014, Shanghai-Hong Kong Communications completed all preparations and started on schedule. China's capital account opening is proceeding in an orderly manner. Capital account opening affects macro-economy, how to open, how to avoid potential risks and how to regulate it. From the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper examines the impact of capital account liberalization on economic growth, including GDP per capita, final consumption expenditure of residents and general government consumption expenditure, using panel data systematic GMM method. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper provides an open capital account for China. Specifically, the paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which discusses the theoretical background and significance, the core concepts and literature review at home and abroad, and introduces the research methods, contents and innovations of the paper. After introducing various measurement methods, this paper uses the improved intensity method to calculate the capital account opening index of China and 40 countries and regions. Chapter 4 uses the systematic GMM model to study the impact of capital account opening on macro-economy, collects the data of developed and developing countries respectively, and uses the GMM-SYS method. The model shows that for developed countries, the capital account opening index has no significant impact on the economic growth indicators of developed countries, indicating that the capital account of developed countries has been up to 1999. For developing countries, the capital account liberalization index can significantly promote the per capita GDP and the final consumption of residents in developing countries, thus promoting economic growth, providing theoretical support for China's capital account liberalization. How to open capital account and how to avoid potential risks has provided some policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6

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