金融开放条件的成熟度评估:基于综合效益的门槛模型分析

发布时间：2018-09-14 14:22

【摘要】：一国金融开放策略的核心是根据初始条件的变化,动态择机安排合适的金融开放次序和尺度,实现开放综合效益的最大化。本文运用基于综合效益的门槛回归模型对多个发达国家和发展中国家1980—2005年面板数据进行分析,通过考察初始条件对开放增长和风险效应的作用,建立金融开放初始条件成熟度评估系统并分析中国现阶段开放条件成熟度。研究表明,金融发展、制度质量、贸易开放和宏观经济政策等对金融开放结果有显著门槛作用。从2005年以后情况来看,中国金融开放整体及FDI流入开放、股本证券投资流出开放和债务资本流出开放对促进经济增长和抑制金融风险有较强作用,而受制于金融发展、制度质量和外汇储备等方面的不足,放开股本证券流入、债务资本流入和FDI流出的条件并不成熟。
[Abstract]:The core of a country's financial opening strategy is to arrange the appropriate order and scale of financial opening dynamically according to the change of initial conditions so as to maximize the comprehensive benefits of opening up. In this paper, the threshold regression model based on comprehensive benefit is used to analyze the panel data from 1980 to 2005 in many developed and developing countries, and the effects of initial conditions on open growth and risk effect are investigated. To establish a financial opening initial condition maturity assessment system and analyze the maturity of China's current opening conditions. The results show that financial development, institutional quality, trade openness and macroeconomic policies have significant effects on the results of financial liberalization. From the point of view of the situation after 2005, China's financial openness as a whole and the inflow and opening of FDI, the opening of equity securities investment outflow and the opening of debt capital outflow have a strong effect on promoting economic growth and restraining financial risks, and are constrained by the financial development. The institutional quality and foreign exchange reserves are insufficient, and the conditions for opening up the inflow of equity securities, the capital inflow of debt and the outflow of FDI are not mature.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学金融与统计学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“推进经济结构战略性调整的重点、难点与路径研究”(13&ZD016)资助
【分类号】：F831;F224

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